NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 10th May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Bond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

A surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs?

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more?

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Markets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st May 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

It’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th April 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Today NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labour market is easing at a glacial speed. Meanwhile equities are pushing higher helped by the latest earnings results, with Intel and Amazon the latest to report strong results. The focus today will be on how European GDP compares to the US slowdown, and the detail of the US employment cost index.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th April 2023

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the banking sector, but tightening credit conditions will weigh on the broader economy. Hence, big falls in oil today, which was one of two factors weighing on the Aussie dollar. The other, of course, is the weaker than expected inflation read for Australia yesterday. Could a more dovish RBA against a hawkish Fed see the Aussie fall further? 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.