NAB Morning Call

Monday 28th November 2022

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Unrest is growing in China over the zero COVID policy, with protests over the weekend in Shanghai following deaths from an apartment fire, supposedly locked down. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve already seen a response to this news with a fall in the Australian dollar as the market opened. Friday saw a sell-off in European bonds as the ECB sounded ever hawkish, and an increase in the pricing of a 75bps hike at the next meeting. And the numbers are in for Black Friday sales – they are at record levels but given the current inflation levels that’s not really saying much.

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Friday 25th November 2022

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As you might expect, with Thanksgiving still going on in the US and everyone else watching the world cup it’s been a quiet session overnight. Still. NAB’s David de Garis joins in today to talk through the ECB minutes, Germany’s IFO numbers, the Riksbank’s interest rate decision and China’s likely response to record COVID numbers. There’s also a no-spoiler guarantee, for those recording the soccer to watch later. 

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Thursday 24th November 2022

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There’s a higher risk appetite again this morning, driven by the release of the FOMC minutes which NAB’s Gavin Friend says more or less confirmed that the Fed will lift rates by 50 bps at the December meeting. Before that, the response was to mixed data, with PMIs weaker than anticipated but strong US durable goods orders. There’s also an expectation that Russian supplies of oil might be higher than anticipated as the G7 and EU seem set to set the cap around $65-70, well above the cost of production. That might be good for inflation but a disaster in tackling Russia’s war effort, which has seen a barrage of cruise missile on Kiev overnight. 

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Wednesday 23rd November 2022

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America will be sitting down to a Turkey dinner tomorrow, but before that markets seem to be determined to spread hope of a pivot from the Fed – or at the very least a slowdown in rates. That’s helped equities overnight and whilst treasury yields are falling. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s unlikely the Fed will be happy to see this sort of price action, it isn’t the message they are trying to send to markets. Less attention sems to be given to rising COVID numbers in China, which are now close to their all-time high in April and are resulting n more lockdowns in major industrial areas. And the RBA’s Philip Lowe warned about the danger of rising wages yesterday, whilst also suggesting interest rates may not return to the lows we saw before the pandemic.

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Markets are still concerned about lockdowns in China, evidenced by the fall in US equities and a 2% drop in Apple’s share price. Oil has also been falling, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the prospect of an increase in production by OPEC+ next month pushed prices lower for a while before people started asking, ‘why would they do that?’. The argument was it was to compensate for lost Russian oil as sanctions hit, with news reports that G7 and the EU might this week agree on the price cap beyond which they will not ship or insure Russian oil, irrespective of the destination. There’s also discussion today on the fall in German producer prices, what the RBNZ will do tomorrow and what the RBA’s Philip Lowe will say over dinner tonight.

Incidentally, today NAB trade donate the proceeds of today’s trading revenue to First Nations Foundation, to support the financial literacy of Indigenous communities. Or you can make a donation. Go to www.nabtrade.com.au/charityday for more information.

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Monday 21st November 2022

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Friday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty years. Normally this would be a clear signal of an impending recession, he says, but we’ve been seeing these signs for most of the year and yet the economy remains surprisingly resilient. The last week has also seen significant falls in oil prices – we look at why. And look ahead to the RBNZ this week. But it’s likely to be a quiet week, with the US celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday. 

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Friday 18th November 2022

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Another 32 thousand Australians had a job in October, making the labour market the tightest it’s been in decades. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this cements in the expectation that the RBA will lift rates by at least 25 basis points in December, continuing on in the first meetings of the new year. There’s less expectation of the Fed slowing down as well, thanks to James Bullard suggesting interest rates could rise as high as seven percent. That’s hit equities and pushed bond yields higher. In the UK the new Chancellor managed to issue a budget without a massive market response. Today Japan’s inflation numbers won’t be enough to convince Kuroda to move from the path of his ultra-easy policy but, as Ken, suggests, that could change when he moves on early next year.

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Thursday 17th November 2022

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Thankfully, World War 3 wasn’t started by that missile strike on Poland. Now markets are back to betting on how far the Fed will go, rather than NATO. As NAB’S Gavin Friend discusses yesterday’s US retail numbers shows greater resilience than anticipated, adding to the work of the FOMC to moderate demand. Moderating demand is less of an issue in the UK, where headline inflation has hit 11.1 percent and household pressures will be hit even more with a cost cutting, high taxing budget expected later today. On the home front, could the evidence of wage pressures yesterday be enough for the RBA to rethink any ideas of a pause in rates before Christmas?

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Wednesday 16th November 2022

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Just as we pressed the record button on this morning’s podcast news broke that Russia had fired missiles into Poland, a NATO m ember. As JBWere’s Sally Auld explains, until that point market sentiment had been very positive, as producer prices in the US eased, adding to expectations that inflation had peaked. The missile strike was a stark remainder of what was one of the major causes of the inflation I the first place and that conflict is far from over. Locally the Australian Wage Price Index is released today and is expected to show wage pressures are well contained, supporting the RBA’s policy of a more gradual approach to rate hikes compared to their overseas counterparts.

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Tuesday 15th November 2022

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After the ebullient mood at the end of last week markets retraced their steps a little today, with shares on the rise and the US dollar regaining territory. NAB’s Rodrigo says Fed speakers, in particular Waller, have reminded the market that they will continue to lift rates until there are clear signs of a sustained drop in inflation. The question is, how determined will they be as we start to see more signs of a slowdown? The response to the easing of lockdowns in China seems to have persisted, with the Hang Seng strong yesterday and the Aussie dollar rising against a rising US dollar, helped by iron ore prices. And Presidents Xi and Biden have met and agreed to talk more. That’s another bit of good news ahead of G20.

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