NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 18th January 2022Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten for faster central bank tightening. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses on today’s Morning Call, the exception is the People’s Bank of China, which lowered rates yesterday on concerns about the spread of Omicron. President Xi has asked other central banks to sit tight, but that seems unlikely. Even the RBA is likely to bring forward its end to QE to next month. Whilst China faces more lockdowns, the rest of the world seems to be opening up The UK seems likely to end its Plan-B restrictions as soon as next week. The Empire Fed Manufacturing survey will be worth looking out for today, particularly after a sharp fall in the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index. Could the supply chain disruption be easing – and maybe inflation was transitory after all? Perhaps.

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Monday 17th January 2022The Fed kicks of its schedule of FOMC meetings next week. We know tackling inflation will be front and centre, but as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, rate hikes are not the only tool they will be using. The minutes from the last meeting also suggest reducing their balance sheet will be part of the plan. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a significant sell-off in bonds, as investors expect a strong economic recovery this year, as Omicron’s impact wanes. Except in China, of course, which continues to pursue a zero-COVID policy, meaning supply chain disruption could remain, adding to inflation. China’s Q4 GDP is the data to look out for today.

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Wednesday 22nd December 2021There was a lot more positive sentiment in the markets overnight. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s all down to Omicron news, with infection rates falling in South Africa and hopes that a pill can stave off the worst for people who catch it. If the news remains as positive as all that, how will markets fare in 2022? How quickly will China bounce back, given their zero-COVID policy will still force shutdowns? What will happen to inflation is consumer demand improves but supply chain bottlenecks remain? What actions will central banks take and will any step too far when it comes to balance sheet reductions? And what will happen with the Great Resignation, if there continue to be many more jobs than people to fill them? One thing we can be certain of, even if COVID dies down next year, uncertainty remains.

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Tuesday 21st December 2021Energy markets are dominating market moves in the run up to Christmas. Oil prices have fallen significantly on fears that travel demand will fall as Omicron gains strength, whilst gas prices in Europe continue to rise on supply constraints from Russia. Equiites have also been hit hard by the virus uncertainty, on thinner holiday trading. NAB’s Ray Attrill says US numbers are just a couple of weeks behind the UK. And geopolitics is also at play, particularly in Chile and Turkey. Even in the UK Boris Johnson can’t be assured he won’t make it through Christmas without a roasting from his backbenchers.

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Monday 20th December 2021Markets are very cautious ahead of the Christmas break, with concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Netherlands has gone into another lockdown and restrictions are being introduced in many other parts of Europe. But that’s not stopping a more hawkish attitude from the FOMC. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a March hike in the US is a real possibility, with Fed Governor Waller flagging concerns about an “alarmingly high” inflation rate. More discontinuity in supply chains from Omicron could add to inflation concerns, of course. Today, we also discuss rate hikes whilst winding down balance sheets. Could central banks go too far too quickly?

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Friday 17th December 2021A rate rise by the Bank of England has surprised many, particularly in an environment of record COVID infections, and a hospitality industry calling for government support as pre-Christmas demand collapses. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it had been clear since August that they wanted to lift rates, the only reason for the delay was a question mark over whether employment numbers would fall after furlough ended, which it didn’t. The ECB gave clearer indications of how they would manage their asset purchase post March. The RBA’s Philip Lowe remains cautionary despite an outstanding set of employment numbers for Australia yesterday. In data releases, PMIs showed a significant fall in services for Europe that is not being seen in the US. A pick-up in housing starts I the US could be taken as a sign that supply chain concerns are easing.

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Thursday 16th December 2021The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the QE ending by March clears the decks, with a revised inflation forecast speeding up the expectations of rises. Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt, so they haven’t been surprised. The Bank of England decision is less easy to read later on, with Britain’s high inflation number overnight offset by the highest number of daily COVID infections since the pandemic began. The ECB follows shortly after that, in a busy day which also sees PMIs across the globe and Aussie employment numbers.

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Wednesday 15th December 2021Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there’s the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which might be mild (or not), but is spreading like wildfire in the UK right now and the race is on to have booster jabs across the globe. Then there’s the inflation question and how quickly central banks will respond to it. A sharp increase in producer prices in the US has added to the ammunition for the Fed to move faster, with the next FOMC meeting tomorrow. It is assumed QE will end in March, the question is how many dot points for rate rises are expected next year. Whilst the Fed might predict two, markets are pricing for three. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says if the FOMC suggests three, the markets might move their expectations to four. It seems whatever the Fed chooses, markets expect more!

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Tuesday 14th December 2021There’s a little more caution this morning, with equities down, driven by banks, travel and energy, with stay at home stocks doing better. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, the fall in the S&P is on the back of the 67th record high of 2021 on Friday night. He says we shouldn’t expect too many significant moves ahead of the FOMC, ECB and Bank of England later in the week, and little significant news expected before then. Turkey’s central bank has already met, responding to sky high inflation by lowering interest rates. An interesting approach. Whilst rising Omicron cases are adding to the cautious tone. Numbers in the UK have risen sharply again, with the first recorded fatality.

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Monday 13th December 2021Markets were trading last week on the basis that the Omicron variant was not as lethal as the Delta strain, even though infections were spreading rapidly. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s been the view with central banks too, who are more concerned about inflation than and further impacts from COVID. That said, rising cases in the UK will almost certainly stop the Bank of England from raising rates this week, whilst the FOMC is expected to shorten its taper timeline, finishing in March. It’s a busy week for central banks and more data on Omicron will influence the direction too. Starting with a press conference from the UK’s Prime Minister (for now) shortly after the release of this podcast.

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