Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected consumer confidence report in the US. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this is the lowest read since the pandemic began. So, will treasury yields bounce back? Supply concerns have been exacerbated by the temporary closure of one of the world’s busiest container ports, after just one COVID case. Could a zero-COVID policy from China lead to much more disruption in coming months? Locally lockdowns look set to continue for longer, but the expectation is that the economy will bounce back quickly afterwards, provided we don’t see a significant rise in unemployment. Activity numbers from China today will give an indication of the extent of the slowdown in the recovery of the global economy.

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Friday 13th August 2021There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any significant news. Bond yields have edged higher, with another successful auction, whilst equities have ground higher, with new highs for the S&P. NAB’s Gavin Friend says we’re at the point of the month when things quieten down. Even news of more regulation from China did little to impact markets. UK GDP was strong and US jobless claims fell, but these, and other data points overnight, came as no surprise to anyone. So a quiet day. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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Thursday 12th August 2021US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst food prices remain elevated. It means the Fed can focus on reaching their employment target, whatever that target is. In a speech overnight Raphael Bostic suggested it wasn’t just about hitting full employment, it was also about fixing the inequality brought about by the pandemic. Meanwhile, the market is sold on the idea of tapering starting sometime in the next few months. At home, consumer confidence fell, but optimism is greater amongst those who have had the jab. UK GDP numbers are out today and will be better than last time, simply because it covers a period when lockdowns eased.

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Wednesday 11th August 2021Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounced back, seemingly ignoring yesterdays concerns about slowing demand from China in light of COVID cases and lockdowns, even though the situation is only getting worse. The NAB Business Survey demonstrates the extent of the situation in Australia. Could a protracted lockdown see the RBA reverse its decision to introduce tapering next month? Generally, markets are looking for direction. Even the passing of Biden’s Infrastructure Bill through the senate has seen very little response. Will the US CPI numbers today provide some direction?

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Tuesday 10th August 2021The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for rising temperatures has not had any market influence. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, instead, the focus has been split between how quickly the Fed will introduce tapering, and concerns over whether the recovery will slow, with rising cases and more lockdowns. Oil has fallen further as flight numbers fall and the anticipation of less travel for the remainder of the year increases. Today the NAB Business Survey will reflect the lockdowns in Sydney and beyond, which Tapas points out, are likely to extend beyond the assumptions in the RBA’s latest forecasts.

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Monday 9th August 2021There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top end of a broad range of expectations. The question is, does this represent the substantial progress that the FOMC is looking for before tapering bond purchases. It depends on which Fed member you are listening to. We’ve seen the response to the jobs numbers in equity markets, bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar. That’s contributed to a weaker Aussie and Kiwi dollar, which could take another hit from weaker trade data from China over the weekend. So, will the Aussie recover? Protracted lockdowns will have an impact, with NAB at odds with the RBA on near term growth. How quick the recovery, obviously depends on vaccine rates.

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Friday 6th August 2021I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central bankers, take a look at what’s happening in Germany. Factory orders came bouncing back in June and Google mobility data is showing most people are heading back to work. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this adds to the strong GDP numbers last week. The extent to which these surpassed US growths hasn’t been given enough consideration, he says. Also today, the Bank of England ups its inflation forecast to 4% by the end of the year and all eyes will be on the non-farms payrolls data tonight – with a wide range of predictions, so take your pick!

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Thursday 5th August 2021The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates next month. NAB’s David de Garis says the markets have now priced it in at more than 100 percent. US jobs, however, are taking longer to recover. The ADP employment report saw far fewer new jobs than expected. Although all eyes are on the more credible non-farm payrolls number on Friday, the ADP report did knock the S&P off its record high. Today, the Bank of England meets, although we can’t expect them to be signalling anything of significance.

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Wednesday 4th August 2021Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ahead with its tapering of asset purchases, despite the protracted Sydney lockdown. The RBNZ’s Governor Orr has as good as said that the central bank will lift interest rates next month. The direction taken by the US Fed will be dependent on jobs numbers, making the non-farm payrolls data all that more important at the end of the week. Meanwhile US equities have bounced back as investors take stock of strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings surprise for Q2. Of concern, though, are rising infection rates in China. Mass cancellation of flights has been influential in the fall in oil prices again overnight.

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Tuesday 3rd August 2021There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation was that they would rise slightly, but they actually fell. Although still in expansionary territory NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it adds to the narrative that the speed of recovery is slowing. It was compounded further with weaker Caixin PMI manufacturing numbers from China. At home the RBA is fully expected to reverse its plans to start tapering its bond purchases from September, as NSW focuses more on increasing the vaccine rate as the only way out of lockdown.

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