NAB Morning Call

Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what the reaction will be if the numbers come in softer or stronger than anticipated? The weekly jobless claims overnight were encouraging, showing the lowest number of new claims since the pandemic began. Whilst equities and bonds have been relatively subdued in the wait, there’s even more movement in currencies, with the Aussie dollar managing to climb back over 74 US cents.

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Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, and overnight they only came half way to meeting expectations. NAB’s Gavin Friend says they rarely show any correlation with Friday’s numbers, but they do reflect concerns about growth inhibited by supply chain disruption. The ISM numbers also reported a reduction in employment. On today’s podcast we also look at yesterday’s GDP numbers for Australia, which were a big surprise, but less relevant with most of the population now in lockdown with no clear end date in sight.

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Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to grow, actually fell. Add falling consumer confidence in the US and there;s plenty of numbers for those looking at the glass half full. Inflation reared its ugly head again too, with Europe’s CPI read much more than anticipated, which could present a headache for the ECB, who had signalled that their emergency bond buying would continue through to next year. Ina amongst all of this, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s telling as to how much pessimism and bad news was already priced into both these currencies.

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Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will give us all a clearer understanding on the speed of the US jobs recovery. The continued high COVID case numbers, a drop in air travel and the threat of an EU ban on non-essential travel from the US haven’t dented market enthusiasm, with the S&P reaching yet another record high. Locally today more GDP partials, which should give us enough data to determine whether tomorrows Q2 GDP number will be negative or positive. China’s PMI numbers will be watched keenly, whilst Chinese authorities will be keeping an eye on computer gamers!

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Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning Call. Yet the markets still reacted. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what was said that was interpreted as a more dovish stance than expected. Can the markets maintain their optimistic outlook with a more cautious Fed, and with some data suggesting growth might be slowing. With NSW recording its highest infection rate so far yesterday, and Victoria staying in lockdown beyond Thursday, can the Australian dollar hold the gains it made late last week?

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Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fairly limited. It certainly hasn’t knocked currencies and equities out of their trading ranges. No, the real focus today will be on what Jerome Powell says at tonight’s virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Even though more hawkish members of the Fed are pushing for tapering sooner rather than later, it’s still likely that Powell will retain a wait and see approach. There’s still too much uncertainty to assume jobs will keep bouncing back at the rate we saw in the last non-farm payrolls. The next report is only a week away. Whilst the NSW Premier talks about easing restrictions, the national cabinet meets today to nut out a COVID strategy.

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Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's helped the Aussie dollar again today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment is being driven by infection rates starting to subside in the US. Phil Dobbie asks how fragile this optimism could be, if number were to rise again. The ECB’s Philip Lane painted a positive picture, suggesting the Delta variant won’t impact the European recovery story because fatalities and serious illness have been contained by the vaccine. He also indicated, whether through PEPP or another vehicle, they’ll be providing favourable financing conditions through to next March, at least. It’s very different to the direction being taken by the Fed, but more on that in tomorrow’s podcast.

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Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Rising iron ore prices and zero new cases in China have also helped the Aussie, as the country gets to grips with life with COVID after lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says politicians are becoming more explicit about living with the virus, with Gladys Berejiklian expected to announce on Thursday some easing measures for those vaccinated. In New Zealand a rate hike in October is very likely, with the RBNZ signalling that the delay was to do with the timing of the lockdown and little more. Australian construction work data for Q2 is out today – if the number undershoots expectations, it could be enough to push Q2 GDP into negative territory.

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Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there are early signs that the rise in COVID cases in the US might have peaked, whilst the official approval of the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines might encourage more people to come forward for the jab. PMIs told a less positive story, with services growth slowing in the US and, for now, Europe seemingly showing more growth. Amongst all the commotion, bond markets remaining quiet, waiting for any hint of policy direction from Jerome Powell at this Friday’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium.

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Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the FOMC member has changed his hawkish stance, now admitting the Delta variant was dampening demand and that could slow the speed of tapering by the central bank. In Asia it’s a different story, with equities hit by further evidence of increased regulation, mixed with the slowdowns associated with a zero COVID approach that is hitting supply and production. Locally, of course, rising infection numbers and extended lockdowns will continue to hurt the Aussie economy. Today PMIs for the Eurozone, the UK and Australia will give an indication of the relative rate of recovery around the world, although possibly, a little out of date given how quickly the global situation is changing.

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