NAB Morning Call

Friday 25th June 2021Joe Biden has struck a deal to push ahead with his infrastructure plan – a much reduced version. That’s helped US equities today. Ahead of that, it was a mixed day on the markets says NAB’s Gavin Friend, as Fed speakers gave mixed views on the duration of inflation and the Fed’s likely response. Data was also mixed, with weekly jobless claims not falling as much as hoped and durable goods orders a little weaker than expected. The Bank of England, who might have been a little more hawkish, actually took a very dovish stance. The data form Europe was largely positive and today the US personal income and spending will be of interest, along with the core PCE deflator, but, there again, we already know prices are rising.

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Thursday 24th April 2021The crawl back from last week’s FOMC surprise is more or less complete. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, Treasury yields are back to where they were just before the Fed met. Equities are back to on the rise and commodities and being driven higher by demand and supply constraints. The reflation trade is back. On today’s podcast we go through the plethora of PMIs from Europe and the US, with more data from Europe today. The Bank of England meets later. The heavily-vaccinated UK population seem to be adapting to life with the virus. Could that influence the outlook for the Bank of England later on?

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Wednesday 23rd June 2021Jerome Powell has been giving is testimony on Capitol Hill and he, like all the Fed speakers over the last 24 hours, has been trying his hardest to calm the markets and reassure them that inflation won’t last, so the Fed won’t be tapering soon or bringing forward rate increases. It seems to be working, with another day of a weakening US dollar and rising equities. This week tentatively suggests that the global reflation trade is not dead, says NAB’s Ray Attrill on today’s podcast. Plus, loads of PMIs today, for Australia, Europe and the US, we look at the winners and losers. And the first words from the RBA since those strong jobs growth numbers last week.

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Tuesday 22nd June 2021Well, we did say it was a rather extreme reaction to the FOMC meeting last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market moves overnight suggest the response was overdone, as markets partially unwound, with the US dollar falling, the yield curve steepening again, US equities up and the Aussie dollar on the rebound. So, what’s driven this rethink and will it last? Will Jerome Powell have an influence on it all when he speaks in front of a US government committee later? On today’s podcast we also examine yesterday’s Australian retail numbers, dissect what Christine Lagarde had to say from the AECB, and look ahead to what’s on today.

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Monday 21st June 2021The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week., hitting a two-month high, after the surprisingly bullish outlook from the Fed, but is the Aussie dollar paying too high a price? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie is in the middle of the storm, with the unwinding of the reflation trade pushing US equities and commodities lower. The Aussie dollar broke through a few technical levels at the end of the week, will it pick back up? Today we discuss movements in currencies and bond yields at the end of the week and what the week has in store for us.

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Friday 18th June 2021The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed. As David de Grais discusses on today's podcast, it’s impetus was enough to squash any positive currency response to Australia’s employment numbers and New Zealand’s GDP read yesterday, both of which were way higher than anticipated. And yet Philip Lowe continued to set the expectation that Australian rates wouldn’t rise until 2024. The road to recovery isn’t straight forward though, with US unemployment claims rising last week and Britain’s infection rate rising sharply, despite the vaccines. UK retail sales will garner a bit of attention today.

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Thursday 17th June 2021At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, twit the dot plots pointing to rate rises as soon as 2023. It’s a much more hawkish meeting than had been anticipated although, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether enough has changed in the Fed’s forecasts to warrant such a shift. UK CPI is another indicator that exceeded expectations. We’re getting that a lot lately. Today’s Australian employment data is also discussed in today’s podcast, along with Philip Lowe’s speech in Toowoomba later on.

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Wednesday 16th June 2021The FOMC meeting is just a day away are markets are being cautious, with little movements in bonds or equities. A weaker than expected set of retail sales numbers has added to the uncertainty. But is there any uncertainty around what the FOMC will say. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says under the hood the retail numbers had some positives, including more evidence of the rotation from goods to services. We also look at the rising price of oil, and the fall in other commodities. Coming up, other than the FOMC meeting, we’ll see China’s retail sales numbers, CPI for the UK and Canada and New Zealand’s balance of payments and current account.

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Tuesday 15th June 2021Oil has hit a two-year high. This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why oil prices could continue to rise. Are we heading for $100 oil? Also, why bond yields are rising again ahead of an FOMC meeting this week where little is expected to happen. And troubling times for Boris Johnson, fighting the EU over the NI protocol, pacifying the US President and announcing a 4 week delay to next week’s planned lifting of all COVID restrictions. On today’s podcast we also look ahead to the RBA minutes, US retail sales and UK employment numbers.

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Friday 11th June 2021US CPI was a higher than expected, but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride, although it’s helped push equities higher today. NAB’s David de Garis said the market will be more interested in what the Fed might say next week, after a couple of disappointing payrolls numbers. Meanwhile, the ECB, upped their forecasts but didn’t talk of tapering, except to say they weren’t going to rush into it. And world leaders are in Cornwall to talk about the global approach out of the pandemic, including a belt and road initiative to rival Chinas.

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