NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 2nd March 2021The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yields last week. With bond yields still significantly higher than they were at the beginning of the year Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what else the RBA can do as the Aussie economy finds itself in a better position than most developed nations. The return to normal overnight, with equities back on the rise, has been partially fuelled by stronger than anticipated ISM manufacturing numbers for the US. In fact, most data lately has been on the upside. The Euro is one of the weaker currencies today, perhaps because of an expectation that the ECB too will increase their bond-buying.

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Monday 1st March 2021Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the RBA can ignore this volatility this morning, particularly as they were arguably slow to respond last week, eventually buying up $7 billion of bonds. What impact will Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package have, even if it does get whittled down by $400 million or so this week? And there’s rising concerns about inflation, particularly in Europe. If we are to keep volatility under control we really need to see data which shows a gradual economic improvement, without upside surprises.

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Friday 26th February 2021Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion. That’s resulting in huge increases in bond yields in around the world, but particularly in the US and Australia. It’s the pace of the move in yields that’s grabbing attention, says NAB’s Gavin Friend in London. Some are also expecting inflation sooner rather than later, evidenced by a rise in yields on shorter term US treasury notes. Spending data tonight could add fuel to this burst of optimism if it suggests there’s more pent-up demand in the US economy.

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Thursday 25th February 2021As the reflation trade continues to push bond prices lower and commodities higher, central bankers are fighting amongst themselves as to who can sound the most dovish. That’s helping push equities a little higher this morning. The Fed’s Jerome Powell and BoE’s Andrew Bailey were both in front of parliamentary committees overnight, each suggesting rates would stay low and any rising inflation was transitory for now. NAB’s David de Garis says the RBNZ was toeing the same party line, suggesting the outlook remains highly uncertain. Today the weekly claims numbers for the US will highlight the strength (or otherwise) of the jobs recovery. By the way, for those who think this is ridiculous title for an episode, doves do fight each other, sometimes to the death, but normally when they are trying to impress hens, not water down inflationary fears.

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Wednesday 24th February 2021Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply rising bond yields. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points to speculation in the AFR today that the RBA will come out swinging today and tomorrow, buying up more state and federal government debt to make up for the shortfall. Elsewhere, US equities are generally down, driven largely by tech stocks and other rotational shares. They did get a bounce, however, when Jerome Powell gave his testimony to the senate, reiterating that the Fed was still a long way from its targets. It was a similar party line from the Bank of Canada overnight. Today, the RBNZ is the next central bank of the marks, and they’ll be treading a careful line, trying not to inflate the Kiwi dollar, but with the global reflation trade there’s not much they can do to stop it.

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Tuesday 23rd February 2021Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the market was clearly disappointed by the RBA’s resolve to deal with the sharp rise in yields. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have also been on a roller coaster. It’s been the same situation in Europe, although the yields have dropped back now. The COVID bounce back story continues to push commodities higher too, which is why we’re seeing the Aussie dollar edging even closer to the 80 US cent mark. The pound has also had a strong session, in part perhaps because of Boris Johnson’s lockdown escape route, although his chosen path is very slow and cautious.

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Monday 22nd February 2021There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says rising commodity prices are the single biggest influence on the Australian dollar and the prediction that it could reach 80 US cents by midways through the year could be realised before the end of the first quarter. The pound meanwhile is going strong on an expedited vaccine rollout program, which offset the poor retail sales numbers last week. In the US yields rose sharply. Inflation continues to be a concern, although the technical indicators are that this concern is easing.

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Friday 19th February 2021There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipation jobless claims, showing its not a smooth recovery for the US. Bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic suggest there are inflation concerns but, as NAB’s David de Garis suggests, it’s difficult to draw definitive conclusions when most inflation signs have been in the goods sector where there have been significant supply disruptions. Markets seem most enthused about the UK right now, where 16.5 million people have been jabbed and Boris Johnson will be announcing his escape plan from lockdown on Monday.

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Thursday 18th February 2021There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January, helped by the arrival of $600 into most people’s bank accounts. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this is a clear sign of the positive impact of the government’s fiscal stimulus, something that won’t be lost in the negotiations for the next round of support measures. Inflation continues to be a debating point in the US, but the UK’s CPI data today shows it’s far from being an issue there just yet. The Bank of England continues to talk up the UK recovery, helped by the high level of personal savings. We also look at the latest FOMC minutes, out only moments ago. And at home, we can expect a strong increase in jobs, helping Australia claw back the losses made last year. Tonight it’s US jobs numbers and housing starts.

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Wednesday 17th February 2021Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell. The biggest movements, though, have been in treasury yields, particularly in the longer end of the curve. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril where the money is going, if it is leaving government bonds and not piling into equity markets. The new high for Bitcoin might be part of the answer, as the ECB’s Gabriel Makhlouf likening it to Tulip speculation in Holland 300 years ago. US retail sales and the FOMC minutes are two highlights over the next 24 hours, along with the UK’s inflation numbers.

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