NAB Morning Call

Friday 14th September 2018

Australia saw a rise in jobs last month, but as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend a tightening jobs market doesn’t always seem to result in rising inflation. CPI in the US failed to grow further, surprising the market and weakening the US dollar. They also discuss the enormous hike in interest rates in Turkey – up 6.25% - and what it means for emerging markets (and Australia). Plus, what does Moody’s have to say about a no-deal Brexit?

Friday 14th September 2018

Australia saw a rise in jobs last month, but as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend a tightening jobs market doesn’t always seem to result in rising inflation. CPI in the US failed to grow further, surprising the market and weakening the US dollar. They also discuss the enormous hike in interest rates in Turkey – up 6.25% - and what it means for emerging markets (and Australia). Plus, what does Moody’s have to say about a no-deal Brexit?

Thursday 13th September 2018

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars gained some ground today, helped by hopes of renewed trade talks between China and the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the Aussie can now hold its position, particularly if we see strong employment numbers today. Meanwhile oil prices are hitting four-year highs as Hurricane Florence bears down on the US, coinciding with a big drop in inventories. They also discuss the Beige Book and Lael Brainard’s attitude to monetary policy.

Thursday 13th September 2018

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars gained some ground today, helped by hopes of renewed trade talks between China and the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the Aussie can now hold its position, particularly if we see strong employment numbers today. Meanwhile oil prices are hitting four-year highs as Hurricane Florence bears down on the US, coinciding with a big drop in inventories. They also discuss the Beige Book and Lael Brainard’s attitude to monetary policy.

Wednesday 12th September 2018

US 10-year Treasuries are closing in on 3 percent again, as expectations firm on two further rate hikes this year. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, two year yields hit a decade high, thanks to strong jobs data and small business confidence, on the back of Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers. It was the highlight in an otherwise quiet night – no Brexit progress, no tariff announcements. And a quiet day ahead, unless the President has other plans. Phil is also joined by NAB Markets’ Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun who summarises the take-outs from yesterday’s NAB Business Survey.

Wednesday 12th September 2018

US 10-year Treasuries are closing in on 3 percent again, as expectations firm on two further rate hikes this year. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, two year yields hit a decade high, thanks to strong jobs data and small business confidence, on the back of Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers. It was the highlight in an otherwise quiet night – no Brexit progress, no tariff announcements. And a quiet day ahead, unless the President has other plans. Phil is also joined by NAB Markets’ Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun who summarises the take-outs from yesterday’s NAB Business Survey.

Tuesday 11th September 2018

There was no further news on tariffs overnight. In today’s Morning Call podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that he thinks it could be a couple of weeks till we hear more. It certainly calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve. The strongest currency was Sterling, buoyed by positive words from the EU’s chief negotiator. They also discuss today’s NAB Business Survey, Italy’s budget and New Zealand’s disappointing manufacturing numbers.

Tuesday 11th September 2018

There was no further news on tariffs overnight. In today’s Morning Call podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil Dobbie that he thinks it could be a couple of weeks till we hear more. It certainly calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve. The strongest currency was Sterling, buoyed by positive words from the EU’s chief negotiator. They also discuss today’s NAB Business Survey, Italy’s budget and New Zealand’s disappointing manufacturing numbers.

Monday 10th September 2018

There’s every chance President Trump will announce another $200 billion of Chinese imports being subjected to tariffs, with the potential for another $267 billion to follow that. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’S Ray Attrill whether this is enough to push the Aussie dollar below 70 US cents for a prolonged period - it’s already the lowest it’s been for two years. Plus the latest on Brexit and the data to look out for today.

Monday 10th September 2018

There’s every chance President Trump will announce another $200 billion of Chinese imports being subjected to tariffs, with the potential for another $267 billion to follow that. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’S Ray Attrill whether this is enough to push the Aussie dollar below 70 US cents for a prolonged period - it’s already the lowest it’s been for two years. Plus the latest on Brexit and the data to look out for today.