NAB Morning Call

Monday 17th March 2025

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We know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introduced to boost consumption. That boosted Chinese stocks on Friday. In the US the government has passed their spending bill, so the Trump administration can move forward on their plans. And the NVIDIA GTC conference kicks off today, known by some as the Woodstock of AI, with their CEO Jensen Huang outlining his vision for the future. And the OECD plays out its forecasts for global growth today as well. Plus, we’ll no doubt learn something new about what President Trump has planned.  A forward-looking start to the week, you might say.

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Friday 14th March 2025

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This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and aluminium exports. Next month, maybe our GST charge will be used as an excuse for a 10%tariff on everything we export.

In Europe through, it’s not just trade that is testing the US relationship. It’s defence as well. Trump wants EU nations to stand on their own and not rely on the US to provide half the hardware and ammunition.

Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, says we are entering a different global order. So, what’s Australia’s place in this new world? Do we, for example, need to spend up big, just as Europe is doing, to defend ourselves from China. Sam says not, but we should rethink AUKUS and question why we have the US Airforce operating from our territory.

What’s more, he says we should listen to finance markets, which move on news of tariffs, but tend to ignore geopolitics.

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Friday 14th March 2025

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Markets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party.   Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. First, tariff tensions. President Trump is threatening 200 percent tariffs on alcohol from Europe in response to the EU’s retaliatory strikes.  Secondly, data. Even though the headline PPI read for the US suggested inflation is slowing, Rodrigo says it’s a different picture when you look under the hood. Finally, the ceasefire. The language coming from Putin suggests it is extremely unlikely. Today the Rengo report on Wages data is a key release, and what it will mean for the direction of the Bank of Japan.   

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Thursday 13th March 2025

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The Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country.  Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is keeping quiet and hoping for some sort of free  trade deal.  Good luck with that. NAB’s Sally Auld says Australia is sensibly avoiding an immediate response, given it constitutes a relatively small part of our total export market. But tariffs are showing signs of slowing economies. A snap survey by the Bank of Canada - who cut rates yesterday – showed households and businesses were cutting back on spending in the face of uncertainty. Repeated globally could this transmit into an economic slowdown that will see central banks ignoring short term lifts in inflation, assuming prices will fall as the economy slows.

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Wednesday 12th March 2025

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Two bits of late breaking news swung markets around towards the Tuesday close in the US. First, a cease fire agreement has been reached with Ukraine in Jeddah, with the US resuming intelligence sharing in the interim. It’s got ot be agreed with Russia, but it was enough to turn US equities sharply into the green, having lost ground for most of the session. The other news was a moderation in the rhetoric between the US and Canada. Having imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exported from Ontario President Trump said he would double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium. Canada’s peace  offering was to remove the electricity surcharge.

NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through these latest manoeuvres and the market response, as well as examining overnight data including the JOLTs numbers and the NFIB small business survey. They also look at yesterday’s Australian data, which showed business confidence falling whilst consumer confidence rose. Today US CPI and a rate cut from the Bank of Canada.

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Tuesday 11th March 2025

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Markets are clearly concerned about the direction of the US economy, as bond yields rise and equities fall sharply again. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s an overreaction happening. Surely, if the economy is seen to be struggling, the Trump administration will reverse course. Maybe, says Tapas although this time the US President seems less preoccupied with share prices and told Fox News over the weekend that, even if there was a recession, it’s all part of a transition period to something big.  This week there will be more fireworks between the US and Canada, with fighting words from Mark Carney, the new Canadian PM. Today, the NAB Business Survey is out, alongside JOLTS data and the NFIB small business survey. And tomorrow, tariffs on steel supposedly. Plus, why Phil should be getting an invite to a proposed Trump Xi summit.

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Monday 10th March 2025

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The downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the Trump administration probably didn’t foresee the massive investment happening in Europe. What does that mean for the future direction of the US dollar and the Aussie, which is rising against it? Questions Phil puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a week where tariffs will again be front and centre, maybe as soon as today. They also discuss US payrolls numbers, China’s CPI and the latest from Canada. 

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Friday 28th February 2025

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The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent of board members in ASX300 companies were women, but only 14% of those companies had a female chair, and there were none in the top 20 companies on the ASX.

This week Phil talks to two senior executives about how they climbed the corporate ladder and the obstacles they faced: Anna Hughes, CEO of the Australian Office of Financial Management (the funding arm of the Australian Government) and Fiona Trigona, Executive General Manager, Group Treasurer, of NBN Co. What lessons can they provide for aspiring young women with an appetite to quickly move higher in business? 

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Friday 7th March 2025

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It’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing markedly higher on the back of a sharp rise in government spending. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the uncertainty of USA tariffs could also hit growth, but the experience in North America shows there’s no guarantees. They’re on, then they’re off. Meanwhile a blowout in US imports as Canadian exporters in particular sought to move goods over the border before tariffs hit.   Today the focus is on non-farm payrolls. Will they show any impacts from DOGE and which direction are wages moving now?

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Thursday 6th March 2025

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German bund prices have seen the biggest single day fall since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, pushing 10 year yields up30bp.  It’s a similar story all over Europe, whilst movement in the US has been relatively tame. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it is all on the back of extra spending on defence and infrastructure in German, outside the limits of their discal brake. It’s all happening ahead of an expected cut by the ECB later on. Market moves were less pronounced all round in the US – equities have rebounded, helped later in the session as rumours of some backtracking on the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico turned to reality. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP yesterday and yesterday’s US Services ISM.

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