Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊Statistics Norway (SSB) released its latest M3 monetary aggregate data.

Overall money-holding sector growth slowed to 6.9% in June from 8.8% in February.

⚠️The real story: non-financial corporations' M3 growth nearly halved, from 7.0% in March to 3.5% in June.

📈Meanwhile, other financial corporations held steady at 11-12% growth.

💡This widening gap between the real economy and the financial sector could be an early signal of tightening monetary conditions biting harder into the corporate sector.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/9aZ6tcxj0zQ

📊 A deep dive into the Bank of Japan's July 31, 2026 Outlook Report.

The FY2026 core CPI forecast was cut to +2.5%, down 0.3pt from April's +2.8%.

📉 But the downgrade is driven by a temporary government energy subsidy — the core-core measure (ex-energy) was barely revised, down just 0.1pt.

📈 Meanwhile, real GDP was revised UP to +0.6%, supported by robust global AI-related demand.

💡 Crucially, the BOJ retained its pledge to "continue raising the policy rate." We unpack what the numbers really mean for JGB yields and the yen.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/NMHgieTYQzc

A deep dive into the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest Table D3 monetary aggregates.

📊 Broad Money grew +7.98% YoY (seasonally adjusted), up from +5.28% in June 2024 — a 3-year acceleration to the highest level in the observable window.

📈 M3 reaccelerated to +0.77% MoM in June from just +0.35% in May.

⚠️ Meanwhile, money market corporations' borrowings fell -4.95% and other authorised financial institutions' assets dropped -6.19%, the sharpest decline in 35 months.

💡 We break down what this dual trend of expanding bank deposits and shrinking non-bank funding means for RBA policy and the Australian dollar.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I2lc7AQMNGA

📊 A deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP) confirmed report from METI.

Production, shipments, inventories, and the inventory ratio were all revised down from the flash estimate, with pharmaceuticals and food items emerging as hidden drags.

📉 Production capacity has now contracted YoY for 27 straight months, while the operating ratio rose for the first time in 4 months.

💡 The inventory ratio's YoY reading flipped from +0.3% to -0.8%, hinting the inventory cycle may be nearing its final stage.

⚠️ We break down the sector divergence, inventory cycle position, and capacity/utilization story behind this nuanced release.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/dfoEpw_6eLk

Japan's Statistics Bureau released the June 2026 Labor Force Survey.

📊 The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 2.5% for a 7th straight month, reflecting historically tight labor conditions.

But cracks are emerging.

📉 Seasonally adjusted employment fell -360K month-on-month, and the hospitality sector — long a symbol of labor shortage — reversed into decline.

💡 Regular employment extended its 32-month growth streak, while the non-labor-force population surged +430K.

⚠️ We break down what this means for the BOJ's rate path and Japan markets.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kAu1Bf_VOok

Tokyo's July CPI (mid-month flash estimate) showed headline, core, and core-core inflation all accelerating from June.

📊 Headline CPI: +2.0% YoY (up from +1.7%)

📊 Core-core CPI: +2.0%, touching the BOJ's target level (up from +1.9%)

💡 Tokyo data leads the national print by about a month, and this reading already exceeds the nation's most recent confirmed June figures.

⚠️ However, part of the acceleration reflects fading energy base effects, while services inflation rose only modestly.

📈 We break down what this means for BOJ policy, JGB yields, and the yen ahead of the August 21 national CPI release.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_Jo-0tAGkVs

Apple reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with record June-quarter revenue and EPS.

📊 Revenue hit $109.4B (+16% YoY), diluted EPS $2.02 (+29% YoY) — both June-quarter records.

💡 But gross margin of 50.1% included a ~2pp tariff refund benefit, and EPS included $0.11 from the same one-time item.

📈 iPhone, Mac, and Services all posted double-digit growth records, while iPad revenue fell 5.9% YoY.

⚠️ R&D spend jumped 32.3% YoY, and buybacks fell 12% over nine months — signaling a shift in capital allocation.

We break down what's structural strength and what's a one-time boost.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EodL4zCfdWE

📊 Amazon reported Q2 2026 results: net sales of $200.6B (+20% YoY) and operating income of $27.5B (+43% YoY).

AWS accelerated to 37% growth — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — hitting a $169B annualized run rate.

💡 But net income of $62.6B was largely driven by a $53.4B non-operating gain tied to Amazon's Anthropic investment.

⚠️ Trailing-12-month free cash flow flipped negative to -$7.6B as AI-driven capex surged to $169.0B.

We break down the strength and the hidden strain behind this quarter's numbers.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/J3xqJODR2jA

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%. Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged Middle East-driven energy price spikes could push inflation above 3% by year-end, but stressed limited evidence of second-round effects and continuing underlying disinflation.

📊 June CPI at 2.6%, below the April forecast

📉 Services inflation eased from 4.5% to 3.6%

⚠️ A minority of MPC members voted for a hike; risks remain skewed upward

When asked if the BOE was "edging toward a hike," Bailey firmly pushed back: "Please do not leave this room thinking that."

💡 Deep dive covers the three scenarios, QT market impact, and the nuanced tone shifts across the Q&A.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/tX6sUJco62U

📊 The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth straight meeting.

🔥 But the vote split shifted sharply — hawkish dissent tripled from 1 to 3 members (8-1 to 6-3) versus April.

📉 June CPI eased to 2.6%, undershooting forecasts, yet 📈 inflation is projected to reaccelerate to 3.2% by Q4 2026.

💡 The Middle East energy shock and its second-round effects remain the key swing factor for GBP, gilts, and future BOE policy.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Y-6C9f9x95g