Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 Brazil's June IPCA rose just 0.16% MoM, down sharply from May's 0.58%.

📉 Core inflation (ex food & energy) also collapsed to 0.11%, hinting at broader disinflation.

⚠️ Yet the 12-month rate of 4.64% remains above the central bank's 4.5% ceiling.

💡 Administered prices (electricity tariffs) and sticky labor-intensive services remain a risk.

We break down the real interest rate gap (Selic 14.25%) and what it means for BRL.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jC2gY93aDoc

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Durable Goods Orders advance report released July 27 by the Census Bureau.

📊 Headline new orders rose just 0.3% to $334.8B, a modest rebound from May's 4.0% drop.

📈 But core capex orders (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) rose 0.9%, extending May's 1.9% gain for a second straight monthly increase.

⚠️ The headline's wild swings trace back to aircraft orders (+167.4% in April, -51.1% in May) — noise, not necessarily weakness.

💡 Backlog grew for the 23rd time in 24 months, while inventories stayed lean versus shipments.

A balanced, data-driven read on where US business investment really stands.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Ekr31apFJ7Q

Deep dive into UPS (NYSE:UPS) Q2 2026 earnings.

📊 Consolidated revenue hit $22.8B, up 7.6% YoY. GAAP diluted EPS fell 53% to $0.71.

💡 But non-GAAP adjusted EPS rose 13.5% to $1.76 — the gap driven by $891M in after-tax transformation charges.

📈 Volume declined 3.7%, offset by strong pricing gains (+9.3% US Domestic, +18.9% International revenue per piece).

⚠️ Fuel costs surged 60.4% YoY; U.S. Domestic GAAP operating margin fell to just 0.1%.

✅ Full-year guidance raised across revenue, profit, and EPS. Full breakdown inside.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/fAvDtEFso78

Weekly macro digest covering Jun 28–Jul 5, 2026. Key highlights: US nonfarm payrolls +57K miss, BOJ monetary base -13.7% QT acceleration, Japan Tankan business sentiment surprise vs. profit plan collapse, Eurozone HICP flash 2.8%, UK mortgage approvals at 2.5-year low, Canada GDP +0.5% rebound. Full analysis with next week's event calendar.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/bfZ_XGjmf7M

This week's global macro digest covers: US June payrolls +57K (well below trend), BOJ monetary base -13.7% YoY as QT accelerates, Eurozone HICP flash drops to 2.8%, Japan Tankan beats on sentiment but profit plans collapse. Plus next week's key events calendar for investors.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/rea0mDxmTb4

A deep dive into this week's three key US macro releases: DOL jobless claims (data unavailable due to technical error), EIA weekly petroleum status, and the Fed's H.4.1 balance sheet. We use BLS employment regime anomalies as a proxy for labor market signals, examine energy-driven inflation risk (CPI gasoline +28.4% YoY), and assess Fed liquidity conditions including reserve balances, RRP, and TGA drawdown. A must-watch for investors tracking labor, energy, and monetary liquidity crosscurrents.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/1zgs5Hj-9Jo

The US Census Bureau released the May 2026 full manufacturing report on July 2. While durable goods orders fell 4.5% MoM on the headline, the drop was almost entirely driven by a 51.8% plunge in nondefense aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders (ex-aircraft, ex-defense) rose 1.4%, signaling resilient business investment. We break down shipments, unfilled orders, and inventory trends to give you the full picture.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/k5o1HgezU7w

Deep dive into the June 2026 US Employment Situation report from BLS. Nonfarm payrolls came in at +57K — a sharp deceleration from May's +129K (revised down). But strip out leisure & hospitality's seasonal drag (-61K) and the underlying picture looks more resilient: professional services +36K, health/social assistance +47K, construction +11K. Unemployment ticked down to 4.2%. Wages +3.5% YoY. We also unpack the -74K combined downward revision to April and May. What does this mean for the Fed? Full analysis inside.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/21lb9jhdBaM

Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's Monetary Base data for June 2026, released July 2. The headline YoY change accelerated to -13.7% from -12.2% in May. BOJ current account balances contracted -16.4% YoY — the steepest decline in this tightening cycle. We analyze what this means for JGB yields, the yen, and the pace of BOJ balance sheet normalization.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/9YhsW1liHMo