Nakajima Quant Desk - English

Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly securities flow data (Jun 21-27, 2026). Foreign investors sold ¥1.82T in Japanese equities and ¥494B in long-term bonds simultaneously — a rare dual-asset selloff. We analyze the structural drivers behind this move amid USD/JPY at 161.67, and what it means for Japanese markets going forward.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/y9YVQA3Cq0Q

Euro area HICP flash estimate for June 2026 came in at 2.8% YoY, down sharply from 3.2% in May. The drop was largely driven by energy deceleration, but services inflation remains sticky at 3.2%. We break down all four components, analyze core inflation trends, and assess what this means for ECB rate decisions and EUR/JPY, EUR/USD.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ibiecV61hh0

Japan's Cabinet Office released the June 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey on July 1. The headline Consumer Confidence Index edged up +0.2 to 33.8, with the 3-month moving average turning positive for the first time in 4 months — yet the Cabinet Office maintained its 'weakening' assessment. The durable goods purchase timing index remains near historic lows at 24.6, while the asset value index holds relatively firm at 44.8. Over 93% of households expect prices to rise in the next 12 months. We break down the structural divergence in sentiment and its implications for BOJ policy and retail stocks.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xSYSXDhssxE

Deep dive into Japan's Tankan Q2 2026 (June survey). Large manufacturer DI surged to 22, crushing the prior forecast of 14. Yet FY2026 recurring profit plans collapsed -6.5% across all firms. Input price DI hit 62 (large) and 76 (SMEs), while 5-year selling price expectations jumped to 6.1%. Capex plans were sharply revised upward. We analyze what this means for BOJ rate hike timing and Japan's inflation trajectory.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/JT8qPzJYyRU

Deep dive into the BLS JOLTS report for May 2026, released June 30, 2026. Job openings held at 7.6M (unchanged), quits rate stayed at 1.9% — signaling a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing. We unpack the construction layoff surge (+47K MoM), the healthcare layoff spike (+53K), wholesale trade's job openings jump (+71K), and what the V/U ratio near 1.1x means for Fed policy. Essential viewing for macro investors tracking the US rate path.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/euc7oXjNdQ4

Canada's real GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April 2026, rebounding sharply from March's -0.1% contraction. Mining, quarrying & oil/gas extraction surged 2.9% — the largest monthly gain since February 2024. Construction turned positive for the first time in five months (+0.7%). 14 of 20 industrial sectors expanded. May advance estimate: +0.1%. We analyze the sector breakdown, BOC policy implications, and CAD outlook.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/IbWVinNY6wk

Deep dive into Australia's latest RBA Monetary Aggregates (D3) released May 2026. Broad Money surged to AUD 3,461B (+4.4% YoY), M3 hit AUD 3,447B, and M1 expanded sharply. We analyze what accelerating liquidity growth means for RBA's rate-cut cycle, AUD/USD, and Australian equities. Essential viewing for macro investors tracking the RBA policy path.

#AustraliaMacro #RBA #MoneySupply #AUD #BroadMoney #LiquidityWatch

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ccHTu4kk4jY

Deep dive into the RBA's June 2026 meeting minutes (released June 30). The Board unanimously held the cash rate at 4.35%, a stark contrast to May's 8-1 vote to hike. We unpack the three key debates: confirmation of restrictive conditions, Middle East risk scenarios, and persistently weak productivity. What does this mean for the next RBA move and the AUD?

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/pSqy1seQEIA

Deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (preliminary). Production rose +0.5% MoM for a second consecutive month, but the inventory ratio surged +1.8% — its first rise in three months — signaling potential inventory accumulation. Transport equipment (excl. autos), petroleum, and chemicals led gains, while general-purpose machinery and electrical equipment dragged. We analyze the inventory cycle position and June/July production forecasts to assess the true resilience of Japanese manufacturing.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/3Pr2I4VZZGw

Deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Labour Force Survey. Unemployment held at 2.5% (seasonally adjusted), with 68.9 million employed (+520K YoY). Regular employment rose for the 31st consecutive month. We analyze labor market tightness in hospitality/food services, implications for services inflation, and what this means for the BOJ's rate hike path.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/DMh7PK9vk1I