Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 Deep dive into the BEA's June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays report, released July 30.

Core PCE inflation cooled to 3.3% YoY (from 3.4%), with the monthly pace decelerating sharply to just 0.1%.

Headline PCE actually turned negative at -0.1% MoM, driven by a $48.1B drop in gasoline spending.

💡 But beneath the surface, personal income growth stalled from 0.7% to 0.2% MoM, and the saving rate fell from 3.0% to 2.7%.

Real PCE accelerated to 0.4%, showing resilient consumer demand.

⚠️ We unpack this two-sided report — welcome disinflation vs. a softening income base — and what it means for the Fed's rate path.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Wis17sq-YPE

A deep dive into the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate.

📊 Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1

📈 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated from 1.7% to 3.9%

⚠️ The gross domestic purchases price index jumped from 3.6% to 5.7%, and headline PCE inflation rose to 5.1%

💡 Yet core PCE (ex food & energy) cooled from 4.4% to 3.4%

We break down the divergence between headline deceleration and resilient private demand, and what it means for the Fed's next move.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/KT5QmBUFYvA

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 17, in a 7-2 vote.

📊 The real story is the vote split: zero members voted for a cut, while two (Greene and Pill) pushed for a 0.25pp hike.

⚠️ Middle East energy price volatility remains the dominant uncertainty. CPI eased to 2.8% in May but is expected to climb back above 3% later this year.

💡 A loosening labour market is containing second-round effects, even as household inflation expectations rise. We break down both sides of the data.

Next meeting: July 30. Full analysis of implications for GBP and gilts inside.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/oAQxuIxym9U

Japan's Cabinet Office released the July 2026 Consumer Confidence Survey, showing the headline index at 34.9 (+1.1pt), the third straight monthly rise. The official assessment was upgraded from "weakening" to "showing signs of picking up." 📊

Employment sentiment (+1.7pt) led the gain — but the underlying shift reflects fading pessimism, not rising optimism.

Durable goods purchase timing remains stuck at 25.6, the weakest of all four sub-indices. 📉

Expectations for 5%+ inflation eased from 54.0% to 52.1%, hinting that cooling extreme inflation fears may be supporting sentiment. 💡

We break down what this means for BOJ policy and Japan's consumer stocks.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/8639sXRTi5A

Analysis of Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data (Jul 19-25, 2026).

📊 Foreign investors flipped to net buying Japanese equities (+¥912.1bn), sustaining a resilient stock market trend.

📉 But foreign selling of Japanese government bonds surged to -¥1,513.9bn, one of the largest weekly outflows this year.

💡 Japanese investors also turned net sellers of foreign bonds for a second straight week (-¥811.4bn), a shift from the year's buying trend.

⚠️ USD/JPY weakened further to 163.71, even as bond flows suggested repatriation pressure—hinting rate differentials may dominate.

A balanced, data-driven look at the tug-of-war between equity resilience and bond market stress.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/bEIDC1TrS9Y

📊 A deep dive into Microsoft's FY2026 Q4 earnings.

Revenue hit $90.0B (+18%) and GAAP EPS reached $4.81 (+32%)—but non-GAAP EPS grew only 23% to $4.74, revealing reliance on one-time investment gains.

📈 Azure grew 43%, and commercial RPO surged 84% to $678B, showing robust cloud demand.

⚠️ Meanwhile, capex jumped 109.6% to $35.8B, and free cash flow fell 23.2%.

💡 We break down the numbers behind this quarter's strength—and its hidden weight.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xkgMCkybZ_c

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his second FOMC press conference.

📊 FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75%

⚠️ Inflation has stayed above the 2% target for 63 straight months

📈 Meanwhile AI-related capex surged nearly 20% year-over-year

💡 The biggest story: the Fed's quiet abandonment of forward guidance. Treasury yields rose to a top-decile move over the last two decades in just 42 days—without a single rate change from the Fed.

We break down what Warsh said, what he avoided saying, and what it means for markets.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CkkjzYvaN9Q

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 — a third straight hold. But the standout detail in these minutes: Middle East hostilities reignited in real time, right in the middle of Governing Council's deliberations.

📊 Headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May on gasoline, while core measures held near 2%.

📈 Q2 growth is expected to rebound to about 2.5%, and the Council said the growth-inflation trade-off has diminished.

⚠️ Yet oil prices turned higher again mid-meeting, keeping uncertainty elevated.

💡 A rate cut is possible if US trade curbs hit; hikes are possible if oil-driven inflation broadens. Full breakdown inside.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/s8SReH3KxJo

Australia's June CPI slowed to 3.8% YoY from 4.0% in May 📉

But the RBA's preferred trimmed mean held flat at 3.6%, while the ex-volatile items CPI accelerated from 3.9% to 4.2% 💡

The headline slowdown was driven mainly by a fuel excise cut and falling oil prices, yet housing and services inflation remain sticky 🏠

We break down both sides of the story—and what it means for RBA rate cuts and the AUD ⚠️

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vIprqmOoyJo

📊 Deep dive into Visa's (NYSE: V) Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, released July 28, 2026.

Net revenue hit $11.6B (+14% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS reached $3.32 (+11%), extending double-digit growth.

But GAAP operating expenses jumped 19%, personnel costs surged 40%, and a $563M one-time severance charge drove GAAP net income down 6.5% quarter-over-quarter.

💡 Payments volume +10% and cross-border volume +13% show resilient consumer/business spending.

⚠️ Cash fell from $17.2B to $12.4B as Visa repaid $5.6B in senior notes.

A balanced, numbers-driven breakdown of the strength and structural risks behind the headline beat.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/eMzrGFoO0Zg