Napkin Math

We kick things off with B2B SaaS lessons learned from Valentine's Day (yes, really), then spiral into whether the OpenClaw acquisition just produced the world's first one-person billion dollar company and whether Peter Steinberger is the most underrated engineer alive.

From there we get into why most SaaS companies are failing at AI, the rise of API-first and agent-first products, and why the stable SEO blog subscription world of SaaS is quietly dying.

We also do a full napkin math breakdown on what it would actually cost to buy your own top-level domain like dot napkin and whether that's a business worth building. Oh, and Nike invented jogging. We get into that too.

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:35 B2B SaaS lessons from Valentine's Day
03:32 How brands invent rituals (Nike, HubSpot, Michelin)
10:46 OpenClaw — was this the first $1B solo company?
18:05 API-first & agent-first products
24:34 Most SaaS companies are failing at AI
29:12 How to stay sane in the AI gold rush
32:21 Napkin Math breakdown: buying a top-level domain
43:34 TLD ideas for the agent era 

This week we’re unpacking the $70M AI.com move, Anthropic taking shots at OpenAI, the rise of agent wrappers, and a quiet $1M solo app no one’s talking about.

Timestamps:

00:00 – The $70M AI.com Sale
03:10 – The $15M Super Bowl Bet: Does the Math Work?
10:10 – Charlie's Recent Domain Purchase & Do Dot Coms Matter?

18:54 – Getting Scammed by Joe Exotic (B2B SaaS Lessons)

24:32 – The Rise of Agent Wrappers
26:23 – Are AI Agents Killing Jobs?
32:14 – Codex vs Claude Code
38:55 – Anthropic’s OpenAI Attack Ad  
42:10 – The $1M Solo Fitness App (Happy Scale Breakdown)

The Napkin Math duo is back with another episode. 

We spend most of this one trying to make sense of AI agents, OpenClaw - the new kid on the block, and why this wave feels messier but more real than the last few. 

We talk through hype vs reality, what agents can actually do today, and how work is quietly shifting from roles and seats to tasks and systems. We also discuss AI fluency levels, how people are using Claude Code in real marketing workflows, one-person companies, and end with the Anti-AI portfolio.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:15 OpenClaw & the agent breakout moment

06:52 Hype vs. reality: shiny tools, boring winners

09:45 The Dropbox lesson: abstraction beats raw tech

12:43 AI agents, security & where this breaks

19:07 AI vs SaaS, leverage & outcome-based work

24:58 Are AI agents actually killing jobs?

28:23 Levels of AI fluency (and how people keep jobs)

37:26 Using AI to save your job, not lose it

45:18 Installing skills: marketing, SEO, CRO, execution

47:12 When agents go wrong: prompt hijacking & trust

52:03 The anti-AI portfolio (what AI won’t replace)

57:18 Why live experiences still win

The duo is back with another episode, and this time we’ve got a guest. Jonny Burger, founder of Remotion, joins us after accidentally pulling 14M+ views overnight on X. We chat about vibe coding, prompting motion graphics with Claude, and why building with AI feels different right now. We also get into how Jonny handled the sudden attention, the noise, and acquisition offers that followed.

Timestamps:

(0:17) Remotion goes viral (accidentally)

(2:25) Prompting motion graphics with Claude

(6:54) How Jonny has been building for 5 years

(10:33) Claude’s GPT-4 moment + vibe coding

(15:25) Why Remotion won’t go full B2C

(19:57) AI agents, local tools, and seat-based SaaS breaking

(32:14) What 14M views actually did to revenue

(40:07) Acquisition interest & choosing freedom

(46:43) Real-world Remotion use cases (marathons, automation)

(50:36) Europe vs. Silicon Valley + marketing lessons for devs

We have some news!!!

Napkin Math Podcast is now live on YouTube.

The episode starts with a life update (Sabba’s new baby) and somehow turns childbirth into actual B2B SaaS lessons. From there, it spirals into whether Peter Thiel is really a billionaire, why Claude feels like another GPT-4 moment, and how vibe coding is accelerating the rise of one-person companies.

It then breaks down Meta’s Manus acquisition, a bootstrapped $1M planks business hiding in plain sight, X’s push into blogs, and finishes with Elon’s ever-expanding list of beefs.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro
00:27 Sabba’s B2B SaaS lessons from childbirth
08:00 Is Peter Thiel a billionaire?
09:57 Claude’s GPT 4 moment
10:49 Vibe Coding Frenzy
14:45 Ralph Wiggum AI agent
19:01 AI vs seat-based SaaS
23:22 Boom of one-person companies
26:11 Meta acquiring Manus
31:07 $1M Secret Planks Business
39:48 Home-reno & logistics startup ideas
43:27 X blogs push, Grok, and Elon’s beefs

Sabba and Charlie are back for a special Christmas episode. A 2-hour deep dive split into two parts.

In the first, the chaps dive into the $100M ARR frenzy across AI startups, break down the Claude Opus 4.5 release, and debate the escalating LLM wars between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. They also discuss Sergey Brin’s return to Google, the opportunity emerging around the ChatGPT App Store, and why prediction markets are starting to compete with traditional media.

In the second, they announce the 2025 awards, sharing their picks for the best product, the best trend, the best distribution startup, and the best comeback story, before closing off with their 2026 predictions.

00:00 Intro – Napkin Math Christmas Special
00:53 Why founders can hate Christmas
01:45 Sabba's baby announcement (and life update)

02:55 $100M ARR Frenzy in AI startups
07:56 Google AI Studio & Unfair Advantage
09:47 Are these AI startups actually profitable?
11:37 When will we see $1B ARR companies?
12:21 Replit’s long-term advantage & Opus 4.5

16:10 LLM Wars (Google vs. ChatGPT vs. Anthropic)
17:33 Google’s vertical AI advantage explained
19:47 Sergey Brin’s return to Google
21:19 Is AI a winner-take-all market?

31:09 ChatGPT App Store opportunity
39:58 What's the hype of Prediction Markets
42:47 Startup opportunities around prediction markets
50:25 2025 Napkin Math Awards (Best product, trend, distribution & comeback)
01:02:27 Why Google now leads AI
01:04:12 Bear case for Google
01:06:29 Comparing Google’s position to Nvidia’s rise
01:08:40 Honorable mention (AI Video’s breakout year)
01:09:30 Why models outpaced products in AI video
01:11:40 What to watch heading into 2026

After a mini hiatus the boys are back with a banger. 5 startup idea frameworks you can use to start the next unicorn or profitable bootstrapped business. Plus, they inadvertently start the Ben Tossell fan club, and talk about making the UK rich again.

• 00:00 Napkin Math - Startup Idea Frameworks
• 01:43 Startup idea framework 1 - copy your competitors
• 06:23 Framework 2 - build an indirect competitor
• 09:02 Framework 3 - build for a growing trend
• 16:18 Framework 4 - build for new regulations
• 19:54 Framework 4 - build an Open Source competitor
• 26:48 Are any frameworks better for bootstrappers?
• 30:20 Do you need in-market experience before building in that market?
• 31:45 Characteristics of successful founders
• 33:43 The end of Claude Code?
• 35:42 The Ben Tossell fan club
• 39:23 Make Britain Rich Again - Forest City

After spending weeks in hospital with a broken leg, Charlie has had plenty of time to think about B2B SaaS lessons for the pod, and he delivers. The chaps also chat about VEED's new CTO hire, their Fabric 1.0 launch and brainstorm existing businesses that could inject AI to get to $100m quickly.

Timestamps:

• 00:00 Intro
• 02:07 B2B SaaS lessons from breaking your leg
• 19:50 Why VEED hired a new CTO
• 25:15 VEED Fabric Launch
• 32:03 Existing companies that could inject AI
• 35:29 Shift to usage based billing
• 39:48 Why courses are hated

Links:

• Napkin Math
• VEED
• Ramen Club
• Cosy
• Ramen Space

Today Sabba and Charlie break down the Figma IPO and speculate on which company will be the next Figma. They question whether the chat interface for AI is outdated, and debate if DeepMind might be the greatest acquisition of all time, plus who’s most likely to win the AGI race. They also dig into the UK’s online safety act, why VPNs are booming, and wrap up with a very cheeky “recording blocker” startup idea.

• 00:00 Intro
• 01:21 Figma IPO
• 10:32 Who will be the next Figma
• 17:25 "Tea app", Uber for X, Tinder for X etc...
• 27:25 Is the chat interface for AI archaic?
• 31:08 Is DeepMind the best acquisition of all time?
• 34:29 Who will win AGI?
• 37:01 UK's online safety act and the business of VPNs
• 45:50 Recording blocker free startup idea

Sabba talks about how he uses ChatGPT, Charlie talks use cases for Claude Code and the duo debate whether the UK is an impossible place  to bootstrap. Sabba also share lessons on hiring top talent early, and dissect Duolingo’s $1billion freemium play (with a  15% churn rate) before comparing it to VEED’s freemium vs free trial approach.

• 00:00 Intro
• 00:28 How a VC-backed founder uses ChatGPT
• 06:52 Use cases of Claude Code
• 13:25 Napkin Math AI Animation
• 16:14 Is the UK impossible to bootstrap?
• 20:34 Hiring great talent early on
• 25:31 Duolingo's $1billion freemium approach with 15% churn
• 36:04 VEEDs approach to freemium vs free trial