New Politics: Australian Politics, News, Analysis & Commentary

It's the final week of Election 2019 and Labor is still in the best position to win the election. We're not saying anything controversial here: Labor has been ahead in the polls for almost three years, the Liberal–National Party is divided and has been an omnishamble in government, and is lacking meaningful policy offerings to the public.

And if it's not the polls, have a look at the betting markets: Labor is now paying Winx-like odds to win on Saturday night [and please, gamble responsibly; and vote responsibly too].

Of course, anything can still happen in this final week of the campaign. Will the Murdoch empire manufacture some kind of scandal that is just believable enough to throw Labor completely off balance? Bring it on Rupert, it probably won't make too much difference. Using Bill Shorten’s mother to attack Bill Shorten was a low-road strategy, but we have to remember: when the conservatives can't win fair, they use every tactic available to them, legal or not.

“Deserving” doesn't have a part to play in politics. If election results were based on worthiness, the LNP would not win one seat: it has been that bad as a government, even worse than the 2011 version of the NSW Labor Party – that was bad but this is worse. We still feel there's a re-alignment that needs to take place for the conservatives, and a long stint in opposition for some time should give them enough time to sort out the difference between the moderates and the Christian right, and present a fresh alternative to the electorate.

Shock election results are quite rare in federal politics: the 2016 one-seat victory by Malcolm Turnbull was a surprise, but we have to go back to 1993 to find the last genuine boilover. Will there be a boilover and sweet surprises for Scott Morrison on Saturday? Unlikely. It's going to be a night for the red-shirts.

Contrary to most perceptions from the media about a ‘boring’ campaign, we think the 2019 election is one of the most exciting ever. Why? Because it's a ‘change’ election, where there's a possibility that it could realign conservative parties forever and, if Labor wins, create the conditions for future governments to be more adventurous in policy development.

But silly media can't see beyond their noses: they look for stunts and ‘gotcha’ moments, following the Prime Minister on his quest to create the perfect media image. ‘How do I look when I skoll this beer?’. ‘Does my bum look big while shear this sheep?’. ‘Go Sharkies’ and ‘watch me while I boot this football through the soccer-league-union-AFL goalposts’. It’s becoming very tiresome.

The media has always shrieked about a lack of substance in politics, but when they finally get it presented to them on a plate through Labor's solid selection of policy materials, they nit-pick, take aim, and retreat back to the banal wherever they can find it, usually following the Prime Minister into a bar. Has he got a drinking problem? Yes, of course. We've counted 56 news items where Scott Morrison has imbibed at the [name your location] hotel, bar, speakeasy or racecourse. He'll be pickled by the time this election is over.

Water buy-backs have been the big scandal the government hopes will go away, but it just keeps coming back. Angus Taylor and Barnaby Joyce, as well as many other high-profile Liberal-National election candidates will be very well hidden during this election campaign and, just like the Marlboro man, Scott Morrison is being seen everywhere by himself. We still think he needs to go full-Putin, rip off the shirt and ride a horse bare-back. That will definitely rake in the votes.

The polls are tightening and could the Liberal-National Coalition just manage to win government again? We don't think so: children aren't usually rewarded for bad behaviour, and nor should governments, but is there something under the radar that we keep missing? We'll find out soon enough.

The 2019 election is on, but to look forward, we always need to look back, and we go far back into the archives to look at the events of elections from 1992 and 1993. But that's over 25 years ago: are age-old events from history still relevant today?

Of course! The similarities between UK Labour leader Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Bill Shorten in 2019 are striking. Like Shorten, Kinnock had been ahead in the polls for almost three years and everyone was backing Labour to win. And he also faced attacks from the Murdoch-backed media, culminating in the infamous and grammatically-challenged newspaper headline: "It’s The Sun Wot Won It".

The election systems are slightly different in the two countries: Australia has two-party preferred and compulsory voting; the UK has first-past-the-post and voluntary voting. Shorten is still favoured to win here, but we think he'd be looking at the 1992 UK election campaign for all the things to avoid; the biggest issue would be hubris and assuming victory just falls into the leader’s lap.

Scott Morrison will be trying to emulate Paul Keating’s feat in 1993 of winning the unwinnable election. Yes, in a two-horse race, anything is possible, but Morrison is not Paul Keating, he leads a very damaged Coalition, and is papering over all forms of corruption (alleged). So we still think it's very very unlikely.

But don't forget the big clichés: the only poll that matters is on election day, and it's not over until it's over.

Conventional wisdom suggests there are two types of Budgets: one that's in surplus, and one that's in deficit. But there's also the Budget type that is totally political, and we've got a feeling Josh Frydenberg's first (and probably final) Budget is in the realm of smoke and mirrors. Anyway, we'll let you know in September 2020 if it was truly a surplus Budget – that's when we'll actually find out.

The 45th Parliament was action-packed – two different Prime Ministers, mass resignations due to the citizenship debacle, several Super Saturday by-elections, and the government ended up finding itself plunged into minority. For the fine aficionados of politics, it's great news. But it's terrible news for the electorate: they crave stability and all they're getting is political navel gazing and opportunism. It's simply not good enough.

Waiting for the 2019 election to be announced is worse than Waiting for Godot. And just like Estragon, Scott Morrison is hoping to catch Labor with its pants down, but we don't think that's going to happen. The kitchen sink has been thrown at Bill Shorten and there's not much more that can be thrown at him. The Coalition is still behind in the polls and the last date to hold the election is May 18. Or is it? May 25 is now seriously considered an option, but the electorate wants an election now.

The NSW Election is all over, and the Coalition Government has been returned for a third term. But is it the landslide victory the mainstream media is claiming? No, of course not: they only just scraped in by one seat, and the National Party lost seats to the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party. Labor also fared poorly, crashing in the final week with a bit of casual racism, and they will commence their search for answers, and a new leader, very soon.

But, there's casual racism and in-your-face racism, and we think our Prime Minister and Home Affairs Minister engage in racism as often as they have breakfast. Luckily for them, the pusillanimous media never calls them out. In the wake of the Christchurch killings, Scott Morrison floundered, and something from 2010 came back to bite him. It seems that in modern Australia, it's more offensive to accuse someone of racism, than the racist act itself. We think it's OK to use the 'R' word, and we'll continue to call out racism wherever we see it.

As we move closer to the 2019 federal election, there's only one more shot in the locker for the Liberal-National Party: the 2019 Budget. Will it make any difference to their electoral chances? Probably not. We're very sure the electorate is keen to give the LNP a lesson they will remember for a long time, and not even the slender victory in the NSW Election for their NSW counterparts will make much of a difference either. Their day of reckoning is coming soon.

There is so much corruption and unethical behaviour by this federal Government that it's hard to know where to begin: Helloworld, Paladin, Parakeelia, Ministers refusing to provide evidence to the Australian Federal Police… it's not a good look.

But there's more: government Ministers are resigning and retiring, with rumours of more to follow. It's hard to shake the perception that the ship is sinking and MPs are bailing out. The polls certainly suggest that, with 164 losing polls for the LNP since August 2016, and the latest Newspoll stuck at 46 per cent. That's not a good look either.

Child sexual assault, one would assume, is a serious criminal charge, and George Pell has been found guilty. So why is most of the conservative media claiming his innocence? He's now a convicted paedophile. The answer is: Rupert Murdoch. As usual.

And the art of lying in politics. Lies are becoming bigger, but not better. More egregious and more frequent. And with each egregious lie, another nail is hammered into the coffin of democracy, even though it's becoming harder to conceal the political lie, thanks to the immediacy of the internet and social media.

Of course, we sign off with our usual message, which has now become a pro forma: We still think the Government will suffer a major defeat at the next election.

January is usually a quiet time in politics but not this year: there are two big elections to be won (NSW and federal elections) and all sides of politics are vying for poll position. Every year is different but this year has been more different than most – it started off with an almost biblical fish kill in the Murray-Darling Basin; and there have been floods in the north and fires in the south. Just like it was predicted in the book of Leviticus.

Climate change was a big factor in the 2018 by-elections and we think this will continue in 2019, with the political party doing the least about the environment, to be punished the most. In our humble opinion…

It was all happening: Captain Cook and the culture wars, another Captain’s call in the seat of Gilmore, a franking credits farce, and a spate of ministerial resignations. Can they see the writing on the wall for the Liberal Party, or do they really want to spend more time with their families?

We also focus on the Banking Royal Commission, the one the Liberal Party voted against 26 times. It's a net negative for the the Government and we can see why they tried to deflect all blame for the Royal Commission onto the Labor Party. But will it wash with the public? That's very unlikely, there's only a certain amount of misspoken mistruths the electorate can handle. We still think the Government will suffer a major defeat at the next election.

Another wipeout for the Liberal Party in the southern state of Victoria means their federal counterparts need to watch out, with their election due by May 2019. Was Victoria a win of the good over the bad? No, it shows winning election campaigns can be run on a positive agenda and the big message is: say what you do, and do what you say. But are you listening, Scott Morrison?

Leaders are being changed at the drop of a hat or, in the case of the NSW Labor leader, Luke Foley, the dropping of pants. Another MP caught up in sexual harassment, and he's had to resign from his position. Alcohol, journalists and politicians is not a very good mix, but why do MPs of all persuasions decide it's OK to harass and molest women in politics? What type of community standards are set when conservative Senators make lewd comments about women in parliament? It's time they shut-up, zipped up their pants and kept their fingers to themselves.

It's the question on everyone's lips: will this government last the full term? It's impractical to call the election now, so we think the federal election will be held in early March or May 2019. But this government is divided, has little in the way of an agenda, and is prepared to say and do anything to win any argument and score political points. It's a disaster for the Liberal/National Party, and the leadership changes, a lack of a clear agenda, as well as its general nastiness, could consign it to the dustbin – and possibly worse – in the first half of 2019.

We had history in the making in the seat of Wentworth, a by-election thrashing of the Liberals following the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull, and we now have another independent on the crossbenches – come on down, Kerryn Phelps. The LNP has slipped into minority government territory and it's going to be difficult for them to hang on to office at the next general election.

The LNP is floundering, although they'll keep beating the drum of their old favourite – asylum seekers and boat arrivals. After making noises during the Wentworth by-election about releasing children from Nauru and Manus Island, they've slammed the door shut again. But is asylum seeking and immigration such an electoral advantage for the conservatives? Have the sands shifted to the left of where the LNP is positioning itself? We think so and feel the public has had enough.

And how can the public image of a Prime Minister be sold successfully to the electorate, especially when their polling is in negativeland, their party is on the nose, the policy cupboard is bare and there's nothing positive to offer? Is driving a bus all the way around Queensland one part of the solution? We don't have the answers: it's a very very tough question.

The Liberal Party is facing challenges in three big elections – Victoria, NSW and federal – with a few other challenges in the Wentworth by-election. But the biggest issue is money – they haven't got enough to run these elections and, with their biggest fundraisers now out of the spotlight (Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop), where will the money be coming from? The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has been in the job for one month and, while he has started from a low base, could this period now end up being his high-water mark? Is he the one to rescue the Liberal Party from dire straits? We're suffering from ‘Royal Commission fatigue syndrome’ – we now have the sixth Royal Commission in five years – and there seems to be too many of them. Why are there so many issues in aged care that require urgent attention, when governments are meant to manage the sector effectively? Does it mean governments are failing to government properly? We think the answer is "yes". Our monthly podcast: 37 minutes of audio gold.