New Thinking for a New World

As Russia's war on Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight, what's at stake may be changing. At first, President Putin's demands seemed aimed at creating a buffer between Russia and NATO, even if some of his wildest rhetoric envisioned the possibility of kicking the United States out of Europe. But as Blitzkrieg turned into a war of attrition, arguably the confrontation is becoming about something much bigger than European security arrangements. **It's becoming about how the world works, about democracy versus autocracy, about free versus not free.

Our guest on this week's New Thinking for a New World podcast has a theory; indeed, more than a theory, he has lived experience. Leopoldo López is a Venezuelan patriot, who has been imprisoned for his efforts to resurrect democracy in his country, and who, it's safe to say, is high on the list of people whom President Maduro wishes would just go away. Listen as Leopoldo explains how the fight to save Ukraine reflects a much bigger, existential fight for freedom everywhere.

One of the ironies of the 21st century is that even though, everyone on the planet seems to have a cell phone and to be actively connected to social media, too many people seem voiceless or, at least, don’t think their voices are heard by those whose decisions shape their lives. The result is a huge gap between citizens and their putative leaders almost everywhere that breeds corrosive anger, frustration and distrust.

What’s going on? Who is voiceless, and why? Is the problem that too many are voiceless or that too many are not listening? Is the solution to speak louder, to scream perhaps, or do we need to think differently about how we engage people in the important conversations that define their reality?

Maybe unanswerable, but we asked some people to try. Please listen to the conversation among Baiqu Gonkar, a Tibetan activist working at the intersection of technology, art and social good; Francis Hildebrand, a Colombian environmentalist working to sustain the Amazon; and Mike Niconchuk, an applied neuroscientist working with conflict-affected populations particularly in the Middle East. Diane Osgood, social impact strategist, moderated the discussion, which was hosted by Vamvakou Revival and the Stavros Niarchos Foundation.

We live in an era of accelerating, disruptive climate change. This isn’t about the random bad storm, but about systemic, dramatic shifts in climate that manifest as extreme weather of all sorts: wet bulb temperatures that threaten life, droughts destroying crops, floods of Biblical proportions, shrinking ice caps, etc. Change is everywhere, with catastrophic consequences that every credible forecast says will worsen.

But how can we understand the reality of those changes? What’s actually happening in the Arctic and in the boreal forests, in the Amazon and in Africa? How do changes in those disparate ecosystems relate to each other and to places where most of us live? What’s likely to happen next, and what can we do about it?

To look for answers we recently organized a conversation among Ugandan veterinarian Gladys Kalema-Zikusoka, Colombian Amazon expert and a friend of its indigenous people Francisco Hildebrand, and Finnish fisherman, scientist and village head man Tero Mustonen. All are deeply knowledgeable about the realities of their ecosystems, and even more deeply committed to finding solutions to the challenges thrown up by the changing climate. Our discussion was moderated by Maarten Koets, and hosted by Vamvakou Revival and the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF).

At a time when autocrats are rampaging and our democracies are weakening, the need for citizens to defend their rights has never been greater. But, does speaking truth to power matter in the real world? While we celebrate the bravery and eloquence of those who stand up to injustice and overweening authority, too often the bad guys seem to win. What would it take to change that outcome?

The Tällberg Foundation recently organized a conversation among three of the good “guys:” Kenyan poet Sitawa Namwalie, Bangladeshi photographer and activist Shahidul Alam, and American human rights lawyer Jared Genser. Their discussion was hosted in Vamvakou, Greece by the Vamvakou Revival and SNF (the Stavros Niarchos Foundation).

Listen as they discuss the reality in the trenches of the fight for human rights

Russia’s war on Ukraine changes everything. Thousands have died; Ukrainian cities have been destroyed; the country’s factories and farms are largely rubble. Ukraine’s heroic resistance has denied the Russian’s their expected quick victory—resistance fueled by unprecedented Western sanctions on Russia and almost unlimited military resupply from NATO countries to Ukraine.

But the damage is not limited to Ukraine and to Russia. The knock-on effects include increased inflation and reduced growth—or even recession—around the world, food shortages and famines, and disrupted supply chains. Most importantly, the war seems to be the straw that is breaking the camel’s back of the post-Cold War world order, with unpredictable consequences.

And all of it would be immeasurably worse if President Putin acts on his nuclear threats.

The Tällberg Foundation recently hosted a discussion that touched on many of these issues. The speakers were Alan Stoga, Tällberg’s chairman; Pierre Lellouche, former French minister and politician; Nikos Xydakis, Greek journalist and former minister; Tomas Anker Christensen, Danish diplomat, who spoke in his personal capacity.Our conversation was hosted in Vamvakou, Greece by Vamvakou Revival and the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF).

This war is far from over and its reverberations will be with us for a long time. What do you think?

We live in the age of the refugee—and the numbers of people fleeing their homes are almost certainly going to continue to increase. Will they be welcomed or will destination countries try to harden borders?

Arguably, no country in the West has been more welcoming to refugees over the years than Sweden has. Progressive, secular, social democratic, Swedes have worked hard to integrate migrants into their society, to help refugees create new lives in their new home country.

How then do you explain what happened last month during Easter when Stockholm, Malmö and other cities were racked by riots and violent clashes between police and mostly Muslim young men? The proximate cause was actual or rumored Quran burnings, but is something more fundamental happening? Many refugees fleeing Middle Eastern wars seem to have decided they don’t want to become Swedes Instead, they want to remain who they are, but to live in a safe, wealthy country. Is there space in Sweden for people who don't want to be Swedish? What if many of those refugees reject Swedish progressive values in favor of Islamic values—whatever that means—in particular? And what does all of this imply for other countries who have not done anywhere near as much as Sweden has to welcome refugees?

Lars Åberg, one of his country's leading journalists and a prolific author, has thought and written about these questions for years. His beat covers social affairs, culture, politics and the media. Listen as he explains what Sweden has done right, but also what it has done wrong.

As Russia's war on Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight, what's at stake may be changing. At first, President Putin's demands seemed aimed at creating a buffer between Russia and NATO, even if some of his wildest rhetoric envisioned the possibility of kicking the United States out of Europe. But as Blitzkrieg turned into a war of attrition, arguably the confrontation is becoming about something much bigger than European security arrangements. **It's becoming about how the world works, about democracy versus autocracy, about free versus not free.

Our guest on this week's New Thinking for a New World podcast has a theory; indeed, more than a theory, he has lived experience. Leopoldo López is a Venezuelan patriot, who has been imprisoned for his efforts to resurrect democracy in his country, and who, it's safe to say, is high on the list of people whom President Maduro wishes would just go away. Listen as Leopoldo explains how the fight to save Ukraine reflects a much bigger, existential fight for freedom everywhere.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has set off the largest movement of refugees in Europe since the last World War. Around 5 million people, 90% women and children, have fled the country and at least another seven million people have been internally displaced. Those numbers, as well as the uncounted thousands of civilians who have been killed or wounded, are rising rapidly as President Putin intensifies his strategy of war on cities and on the people who live in them.

At least 2.7 million of these refugees have fled to Poland, a country with a spotty record—at best—when it comes to accepting migrants. But this time is different: even as the country builds a wall on its border with Belarus to keep out migrants from the Middle East, Poles and their government are welcoming the Ukrainians pouring across their border. Why the difference? What do the ordinary Poles who are receiving and sheltering the refugees think? Will there be limits to the hospitality as the war drags on? Could there be a silver lining to this horrible tragedy if it produces new attitudes to migration—or is that too naive?

Marta Górczyńska, a Polish human rights lawyer, is hopeful. She has seen and dealt with her country’s efforts to close the border with Belarus as well as its enthusiastic opening of the border with Ukraine (at least for Ukrainians). Will the better angels prevail? Are there implications for other situations as the tide of migrants rises globally?

One of the many unintended consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the renewed discussion among politicians, as well as in the popular media, of nuclear war. President Putin may have cast the first stone, but many others have quickly followed. Would Russia have dared invade Ukraine if that latter had not traded in their stockpiles of nukes in the 90s? Would Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi still be in their palaces if they had nuclear weapons to scare off the Americans and the Europeans? Are the North Koreans simply internalizing those lessons, and why does anybody think that the Iranians have not drawn similar conclusions, especially since their arch enemy Israel crossed the nuclear threshold a long time ago?

How worried should we be about Russian or Korean or Chinese or prospectively Iranian nukes? Have we suddenly moved from a world of nonproliferation to a world of proliferation?

Dr. Tytti Erästö is an expert on nuclear weapons at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). For her, a key assumption has long been that rational leaders would never use nuclear weapons. But now she is asking, what about irrational ones?

Perhaps the biggest known unknown in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is China's role. But we have some clues: during the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese and Russian presidents issued a communique saying their country's relationship has "no limits."

What does that actually mean? How far will China go to keep Russian troops in the field? Promises aside, are there in fact limits?

Tough questions that are very difficult, maybe impossible to answer, but our guest on this episode of New Thinking For a New World recently offered some possibilities in Can China Bail Out Putin? Alicia Garcia-Herrero is a senior fellow at the European think-tank BRUEGEL, as well as the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French investment bank.

What do you think?