New Thinking for a New World

The Middle East is changing. In the past couple of years, peace treaties have been signed between Arab countries and Israel. New investment and trade relationships are emerging based on economics, not religion. The threat of war between Shia and Sunni is no longer in the headlines. Western powers, especially the United States, seem to be fading from the scene.

Almost more amazing than any of that, in December more than 700,000 Saudi kids participated in a four-day rave in the Saudi desert with regular intermissions for Islamic prayers. What's going on? Has the Middle East of strict Islam suddenly turned into something more modern? Have the Arabs figured out how to move beyond religious conflict? In a world that wants to abandon hydrocarbons, are the Arabs just enjoying the last party before their world collapses?

What happens as foreign powers become spectators rather than actors? Can the locals actually find the peace and prosperity that has eluded them for so long?

Neil Quilliam is a deeply knowledgeable, experienced expert in the region. He has been engaged with the politics, economics and societies of the Middle East and North Africa for decades: today from his perch at Chatham House in London and earlier through his service in the UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office and his history of living in, working on and studying the Gulf and the Levant.

Whether we like it or not, global politics today is defined by confrontation—which could lead to conflict—between autocracies and democracies. However, unlike the great geopolitical divisions of the past, the new dividing lines are not ideological or ethnic or religious or economic. Rather, the two camps are defined by how their leaders come to and maintain themselves in power. The autocracies seem to have figured out they have much in common, including fear of democracy, and translate that understanding into effective mutual support. Ironically, the democracies spend considerable energy criticizing each other, emphasizing their different approaches to issues like immigration, climate, trade, etc.

Not surprisingly, as historian and journalist Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic in November: “The Bad Guys are Winning.” As she put it, "If the 20th century was the story of slow, uneven progress toward the victory of liberal democracy over other ideologies—communism, fascism, virulent nationalism—the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.”

With Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border, Belarus dumping Middle East migrants in Poland and Lithuania, China threatening Taiwan (as well as countries like Lithuania and Australia who dare to disagree with Beijing) these are potentially life and death issues. Listen as Applebaum discusses how this new world (dis) order might evolve.

We live in an always on, hyperconnected, digital society. Almost every aspect of our lives now has a virtual element, which means we leave endless trails of data to be hoovered up for good and for evil. Unfortunately, some of the results include cybercrime, illegal spying, harassment, cyber intimidation and identity theft.

It’s bad enough when these activities are aimed at you or me; much worse when they target dissidents, crusading journalists, citizens who are pushing back against government oppression. That’s where Ronald Deibert and the Citizen Lab at Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto come in. Ron and his colleagues are in the business of fighting back, using cutting-edge technologies to protect citizens and civil society from digital predators.

Listen as Ron, a finalist for the 2021 Tallberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize, explains how Citizen Lab does the voodoo they do so well.

The Taliban's surge to power in Afghanistan is one of those events that will have repercussions for years to come. Geopolitical, strategic, military, perhaps religious, but most importantly, humanitarian. We all watched in horror as hundreds of thousands of women, men, and children tried to flee what seems likely to be a re-imposition of the Taliban's brutal pre-modern style of ruling.

Jamila Afghani, our guest this week, succeeded in getting out with her family. Jamila is an educator, a leader, and an activist. Her work to elevate the rights and improve the education of women and girls is based on her studies of Islamic law, which she believes is typically misinterpreted to give them second-class status. Jamila is also a past winner of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize.

Listen as Jamila talks about escaping the Taliban, and what she expects for her country.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has shown a growing willingness to act outside the accepted geopolitical, economic and even diplomatic global framework and practices. Indeed, Beijing’s actions suggest a rejection of the post-war system in favor of one that is not just rejiggered to accommodate China’s growing superpowers, but that is dominated by it.

The latest data points? President Xi did not show up at COP 26; reports from Glasgow suggest the Chinese have been playing a spoiling role in the climate talks; tensions over Taiwan continue to rise; Chinese rhetoric aimed at the United States, Australia, and Europe is increasingly harsh. Not a day goes by without new reports of China asserting what it sees as its prerogatives as the soon-to-be largest economy in the world.

What’s going on? Is China’s leadership acting out of strength or weakness? Is Xi merely probing the West’s weaknesses or has he decided the time is ripe to push hard? Is war possible? Is war avoidable?

Australian Kevin Rudd has spent a considerable part of his life thinking about, working on, and negotiating with China — as a diplomat, twice as his country's prime minister, and currently as president of the Asia Society. Arguably no other western leader knows China better. Listen as he assesses where China is today, and where it wants to be tomorrow.

Great leaders may or may not be born that way, but their skills and abilities certainly evolve and mature over time. For years the Tälberg Foundation has nurtured leaders who are relatively early on their journeys through a variety of programs. This year we took another step in our own leadership journey by establishing an Emerging Leader category for the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize.

The idea is simple: identify and honor leaders who have already had impact but who are still growing and evolving. It’s not about age, but about impact and potential.

The 2021 jury selected two emerging leaders as the initial recipients of this honor. Pashtana Durrani is an Afghan activist and educator working to create digital learning opportunities, especially for girls, in her ravaged country. Christian Ntizimira is a Rwandan medical doctor who champions palliative care in central Africa, in the belief that dignified death is a human right (and a communal obligation).

Listen as two Tällberg jurors—Shahidul Alam, a Bangladeshi photographer and human rights activist and Gouri Mirpuri, a Singaporean social entrepreneur—discuss leadership with Pashtana and Christian.

The only hope for a world awash in troubles is that leaders with vision, universal values, and determination will seize the moment. Not just in politics, but across sectors and across countries. Unfortunately, nothing like that is yet happening.

But just bemoaning the lack of leaders accomplishes nothing. That’s why we established and have nurtured the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize.

In 2021 our global jury selected two amazing leaders: Asha de Vos, a Sri Lankan marine biologist who has established a world class marine conservation research and education institution in her country, and Tero Mustonen, a Finnish climate scientist, fisherman and community leader, who blends the wisdom of local and Indigenous peoples with the hard truths of scientists to define new approaches to climate change.

Listen as two Tällberg jurors—David Kiernan, a leading American litigator and Marthe Reinette, of the THNK School of Creative Leadership in the Netherlands—discuss leadership, challenges and hope with Asha and Tero

Like almost everything else on the global scene, the Middle East of today is significantly different than the region that has been such a locus of conflict over the past 50 years. Key actors seem to be refocusing their political and diplomatic efforts from war to peace and are beginning to build a new network of relationships that transcend old rivalries. Some of this reflects a growing awareness that local leaders, not those in Washington, Moscow, or elsewhere, are likely better equipped—and certainly better motivated—to govern in the interest of the people who actually live in the region.

In this context, Jordan, under the leadership of King Abdullah II, is playing a major role. Although—or, perhaps, because—the country lacks water and other resources and has been badly impacted by the Syrian civil war over the past decade, Jordanian diplomacy has kicked into high gear in this search for a new, positive future.

Our guest this week, Ambassador Dina Kawar is both an observer and participant in this transformation. She is currently Jordan's ambassador to the United States, having previously served as her country's ambassador to the United Nations, France, Portugal, the Vatican and UNESCO. Listen as she parses the possibilities, good and bad, of this rapidly changing region.

What do you think?

Do you care about the future of the oceans? Are you worried that pollution, acidification and warming of the seas could transform the planet as much as, maybe more than, what’s happening to the rainforests?

Seventy percent of the earth is covered by water. If we want a livable planet, we need livable oceans. Can we save the oceans? If failure is not an option—and it should not be—who needs to do what?

In a recent Tällberg webinar, oceanographers Sylvia Earle from the United States and Asha de Vos from Sri Lanka talked about water, the oceans, threats, and solutions. Both are explorers, educators, and activists and both are winners of the Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize.

We live in an always on, hyperconnected, digital society. Almost every aspect of our lives now has a virtual element, which means we leave endless trails of data to be hoovered up for good and for evil. Unfortunately, some of the results include cybercrime, illegal spying, harassment, cyber intimidation and identity theft.

It’s bad enough when these activities are aimed at you or me; much worse when they target dissidents, crusading journalists, citizens who are pushing back against government oppression. That’s where Ronald Deibert and the Citizen Lab at Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto come in. Ron and his colleagues are in the business of fighting back, using cutting-edge technologies to protect citizens and civil society from digital predators.

Listen as Ron, a finalist for the 2021 Tallberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize, explains how Citizen Lab does the voodoo they do so well.