With increasing talk about nuclear threats, we have three questions in this episode:

What do we know from Putin’s past behavior that could inform how high up the ladder of escalation he is prepared to go?

What are the next rungs up the ladder of escalation before the nuclear threat is real?

As Putin moves up this escalatory ladder, what are the calculations of Zelensky, Europe’s leaders, and President Biden?

Military analyst and Russia historian Fred Kagan returns to the podcast. Fred is the director of the American Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute and a former professor of military history at West Point, where he taught for ten years. Fred regularly advises senior US military commanders. He earned his PhD in Russian and Soviet military history at Yale University.

Fred has a contrarian take on possible off-ramps for Putin (spoiler-alert: he doesn’t think there are any). And Fred also has a contrarian take on President Biden’s recent comments about a “nuclear armageddon”.

To follow Fred Kagan’s work, the easiest way to do that is to go to AEI.org and understandingwar.org.