Monday 3rd October 2022

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The lasting effect from the UK’s mini-budget kerfuffle has not been the weakness in the pound – that’s bounced back for now – but the rise in bond yields. They are, of course, rising everywhere as central banks find it increasingly hard to fight inflation. The pound might feel some pressure today, though, as S&P put the UK’s credit rating on a “negative outlook”. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it doesn’t mean a downgrade is going to happen, but it adds to the uncertainty the UK is facing right now. Meanwhile, inflation remains strong, with the Euro area reporting 10% and the US Core PCE read on Friday also on the rise. Oil prices are likely to rise as well as OPEC+ meets this week, with a large cut in production likely. Locally, the RBA meets tomorrow. We look at what to expect.

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