Can correcting misinformation make it worse? The “backfire effect” claims that debunking myths can actually make false beliefs stronger. We dig into the evidence — from ghost studies to headline-making experiments — to see if this psychological plot twist really holds up. Along the way, we unpack interaction effects, randomization red flags, and what happens when bad citations take on a life of their own. Plus: dirty talk analogies, statistical sleuthing, and why “familiarity” might be your brain’s sneakiest trick.

Statistical topics

• Computational replication
• Replication
• Block randomization
• Problems in randomization
• Bad citing
• Interactions in regression

Unpublished "Ghost Paper"

• PDF retrieved from the Wayback Machine

Citations

• Nyhan B, Reifler J. When corrections fail: The persistence of political misperceptions. Political Behavior. 2010;32:303–330.
• Skurnik I, Yoon C, Schwarz N. “Myths & Facts” about the flu: Health education campaigns can reduce vaccination intentions. Unpublished manuscript, PDF posted separately.
• Schwarz N, Sanna LJ, Skurnik I, et al. Metacognitive experiences and the intricacies of setting people straight: Implications for debiasing and public information campaigns. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 2007;39:127–61.
• Lewandowsky S, Ecker UKH, Seifert CM, et al. Misinformation and its correction: Continued influence and successful debiasing. Psychological Science in the Public Interest. 2012;13:106–131.
• Pluviano S, Watt C, Della Sala S. Misinformation lingers in memory: Failure of three pro-vaccination strategies. PLOS ONE. 2017;12:e0181640.
• Pluviano S, Watt C, Ragazzini G, et al. Parents’ beliefs in misinformation about vaccines are strengthened by pro‑vaccine campaigns. Cognitive Processing. 2019;20:325–31.
• Wood T, Porter E. The elusive backfire effect: Mass attitudes’ steadfast factual adherence. Political Behavior. 2019;41:135–63.
• Nyhan B, Porter E, Reifler J, Wood TJ. Taking fact-checks literally but not seriously? The effects of journalistic fact-checking on factual beliefs and candidate favorability. Political Behavior. 2020;42:939–60.
• Ecker UKH, Hogan JL, Lewandowsky S. Reminders and repetition of misinformation: Helping or hindering its retraction? Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2017;6:185–92.
• Swire B, Ecker UKH, Lewandowsky S. The role of familiarity in correcting inaccurate information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2017;43:1948–61.
• Ecker UKH, O’Donnell M, Ang LC, et al. The effectiveness of short- and long-format retractions on misinformation belief and recall. British Journal of Psychology. 2020;111:36–54.
• Ecker UKH, Sharkey CXM, Swire-Thompson B. Correcting vaccine misinformation: A failure to replicate familiarity or fear-driven backfire effects. PLOS ONE. 2023;18:e0281140.
• Cook J, Lewandowsky S. The Debunking Handbook. University of Queensland. 2011.
• Lewandowsky S, Cook J, Ecker UKH, et al. The Debunking Handbook 2020. Available at https://sks.to/db2020. 
• Swire‑Thompson B, DeGutis J, Lazer D. Searching for the backfire effect: Measurement and design considerations. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2020;9:286–99.

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

• Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  
• Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 
• Medical Statistics Certificate Program  
• Writing in the Sciences 
• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) -

Loyal, funny, hot — you’ve probably got a wish list for your dream partner. But does checking all your boxes actually lead to happily ever after? In this episode, we dive into a massive global study that put the “ideal partner” hypothesis to the test. Do people really know what they want, and does getting it actually make them happier? We explore surprising statistical insights from over 10,000 romantics in 43 countries, from mean-centering and interaction effects to the good-catch confounder. Along the way, we dig into dessert metaphors, partner boat-count regression models, and the one trait that people say doesn’t matter — but secretly makes them happiest.

Statistical topics

• Regression
• Random Slopes and Intercepts (Random Effects) in Regression
• Standardized Beta Coefficients in Regression
• Interaction Effects in Regression
• Mean Centering
• Exploratory Analyses

Methodological morals

“Good science bares it all.”

“When the world isn't one size fits all, don't fit just one line; use random slopes and intercepts.”

References

• Eastwick PW, Sparks J, Finkel EJ, Meza EM, Adamkovič M, Adu P, Ai T, Akintola AA, Al-Shawaf L, Apriliawati D, Arriaga P, Aubert-Teillaud B, Baník G, Barzykowski K, Batres C, Baucom KJ, Beaulieu EZ, Behnke M, Butcher N, Charles DY, Chen JM, Cheon JE, Chittham P, Chwiłkowska P, Cong CW, Copping LT, Corral-Frias NS, Ćubela Adorić V, Dizon M, Du H, Ehinmowo MI, Escribano DA, Espinosa NM, Expósito F, Feldman G, Freitag R, Frias Armenta M, Gallyamova A, Gillath O, Gjoneska B, Gkinopoulos T, Grafe F, Grigoryev D, Groyecka-Bernard A, Gunaydin G, Ilustrisimo R, Impett E, Kačmár P, Kim YH, Kocur M, Kowal M, Krishna M, Labor PD, Lu JG, Lucas MY, Małecki WP, Malinakova K, Meißner S, Meier Z, Misiak M, Muise A, Novak L, O J, Özdoğru AA, Park HG, Paruzel M, Pavlović Z, Püski M, Ribeiro G, Roberts SC, Röer JP, Ropovik I, Ross RM, Sakman E, Salvador CE, Selcuk E, Skakoon-Sparling S, Sorokowska A, Sorokowski P, Spasovski O, Stanton SCE, Stewart SLK, Swami V, Szaszi B, Takashima K, Tavel P, Tejada J, Tu E, Tuominen J, Vaidis D, Vally Z, Vaughn LA, Villanueva-Moya L, Wisnuwardhani D, Yamada Y, Yonemitsu F, Žídková R, Živná K, Coles NA. A worldwide test of the predictive validity of ideal partner preference matching. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2025 Jan;128(1):123-146. doi: 10.1037/pspp0000524
• Love Factually Podcast: https://www.lovefactuallypod.com/

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) -

It’s our first stats reunion! In this special review episode, we revisit favorite concepts from past episodes—p-values, multiple testing, regression adjustment—and give them fresh personalities as characters. Meet the seductive false positive, the clingy post hoc ex, and Charlotte, the well-meaning but overfitting idealist.

Statistical topics

• Bar charts vs Box plots
• Bonferroni correction
• Confounding
• False positives 
• Multiple testing
• Multivariable regression
• Outcome switching
• Over-adjustment
• Post hoc analysis
• Pre-registration
• Residual confounding
• Statistical adjustment using regression
• Subgroup analysis 
• Unmeasured confounding

References

• Nuzzo RL. The Box Plots Alternative for Visualizing Quantitative Data. PM R. 2016 Mar;8(3):268-72. doi: 10.1016/j.pmrj.2016.02.001. Epub 2016 Feb 15. PMID: 26892802.
• Sainani KL. The problem of multiple testing. PM R. 2009 Dec;1(12):1098-103. doi: 10.1016/j.pmrj.2009.10.004. PMID: 20006317.

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) - Intro

Could a preteen vaccine wipe out a global cancer? In this episode, we examine the bold claim that cervical cancer could be eradicated in much of the world by the end of the century—thanks to the highly effective HPV vaccine. We unpack statistical modeling, microsimulations, and how Markov chains make good date-night conversation. We also explore why vaccine uptake has been uneven, how a splash of vinegar is helping screen for cancer in low-resource countries, and why HPV isn’t just a women’s issue—it now causes more cancer in men than in women. Plus: dangerously tight corsets, allegedly breast-squeezing nuns, and the Cosmo quote we wish we’d written ourselves.

Statistical topics:

• Cancer surveillance
• Markov models
• Microsimulation models
• Sensitivity analyses
• Passive surveillance
• Background rates
• Case reports and case series

Methodologic morals:

• “When reality is too complex to test, let microsimulations do the rest.”
• “Case reports are medicine's equivalent to see something, say something. They call for hard data, not hysteria.”

Citations:

• No cervical cancer cases detected in vaccinated women following HPV immunisation. University of Strathclyde, January 22, 2024.
• Palmer TJ, Kavanagh K, Cuschieri K, et al. Invasive cervical cancer incidence following bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination: a population-based observational study of age at immunization, dose, and deprivation. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2024;116:857-65.
• Rigoni-Stern. Statistical facts about cancers on which Doctor Rigoni-Stern based his contribution to the Surgeons' Subgroup of the IV Congress of the Italian Scientists on 23 September 1842. (translation). Stat Med. 1987;6:881-4.
• Gordan JA, Lenkei SC. Cleanliness, Continence, Constancy, and Cervical Carcinoma. Can Med Assoc J. 1964;90:1132.
• zur Hausen H. Condylomata acuminata and human genital cancer. Cancer Res. 1976;36:794.
• Walboomers JM, Jacobs MV, Manos MM, et al. Human papillomavirus is a necessary cause of invasive cervical cancer worldwide. J Pathol. 1999;189:12-9.
• Chesson HW, Dunne EF, Hariri S, et al. The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States. Sex Transm Dis. 2014;41:660-4.
• Sullivan, Morgan. Let’s Have a Little Chat About the HPV Vaccine. Cosmopolitan. March 19, 2025.
• Burger EA, Kim JJ, Sy S, et al. Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer. Clin Infect Dis. 2017;65:893-99.
• Canfell K. Towards the global elimination of cervical cancer. Papillomavirus Res. 2019;8:100170.
• World Health Organization. Global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. November 17, 2020.
• Hall MT, Simms KT, Lew JB, et al. The projected timeframe until cervical cancer elimination in Australia: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2019;4:e19-e27.
• Burger EA, Smith MA, Killen J, et al. Projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in the USA: a comparative modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Apr;5(4):e213-e222.
• Brisson M, Kim JJ, Canfell K, et al. Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Lancet. 2020;395:575-90.
• Escabí-Wojna E, Alvelo-Fernández PM, Suárez E, et al. Sex differences in parental reasons for lack of intent to initiate HPV vaccination among adolescents ages 13-17 years: National Immunization Survey - Teen 2019-2021. Vaccine. 2025;44:126584. (see supplement) 
• Szilagyi PG, Albertin CS, Gurfinkel D, et al. Prevalence and characteristics of HPV vaccine hesitancy among parents of adolescents across the US. Vaccine. 2020;38:6027-6037.
• LaPook, Jonathan. Is the HPV Vaccine Safe? CBS Evening News. August 18, 2009.
• Slade BA, Leidel L, Vellozzi C, et al. Postlicensure safety surveillance for quadrivalent human papillomavirus recombinant vaccine. JAMA. 2009;302:750-7.
• Kharabsheh S, Al-Otoum H, Clements J, et al. Mass psychogenic illness following tetanus-diphtheria toxoid vaccination in Jordan. Bull World Health Organ. 2001;79:764-70.
• Jones TF, Craig AS, Hoy D, et al. Mass psychogenic illness attributed to toxic exposure at a high school. N Engl J Med. 2000;342:96-100.
• Buttery JP, Madin S, Crawford NW, et al. Mass psychogenic response to human papillomavirus vaccination. Med J Aust. 2008;189:261-2.
• Clements CJ. Gardasil and mass psychogenic illness. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2007;31:387.
• Simas C, Munoz N, Arregoces L, et al. HPV vaccine confidence and cases of mass psychogenic illness following immunization in Carmen de Bolivar, Colombia. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2019;15:163-66.
• Larson HJ. Japan's HPV vaccine crisis: act now to avert cervical cancer cases and deaths. Lancet Public Health. 2020;5:e184-e185.
• Brinth LS, Pors K, Theibel AC, Mehlsen J. Orthostatic intolerance and postural tachycardia syndrome as suspected adverse effects of vaccination against human papilloma virus. Vaccine. 2015;33:2602-5.
• Large well-done studies following up on case reports and passive surveillance:
• Phillips A, Hickie M, Totterdell J, Brotherton J, Dey A, Hill R, Snelling T, Macartney K. Adverse events following HPV vaccination: 11 years of surveillance in Australia. Vaccine. 2020;38:6038-46.
• Arnheim-Dahlström L, Pasternak B, Svanström H, et al.

Today’s deep dive: the surprisingly serious science of penis size. Using self-report surveys, objective measurements, and a healthy dose of old-school statistics, we ask: How do you get clean data on gentlemen’s goods?Along the way, we explore social desirability bias, survey design tricks, and what happens when science meets insecurity. You’ll never look at a Starbucks cup the same way again.

Statistical topics

• Social desirability bias
• Selection bias
• Volunteer Bias
• Descriptive Statistics
• Right-Skewed Distributions
• Strategies to improve accuracy in self-report data

Methodological morals

• “When answers aim to please, truth takes its leave.”
• “Without descriptive statistics, you'll never know if you measure up.”

References

• CROWNE DP, MARLOWE D. A new scale of social desirability independent of psychopathology. J Consult Psychol. 1960;24:349-354. doi:10.1037/h0047358
• Gebhard, P.H. and Johnson, A.B., 1998. The Kinsey data: Marginal tabulations of the 1938-1963 interviews conducted by the Institute for Sex Research. Indiana University Press.
• Herbenick D, Reece M, Schick V, Sanders SA. Erect penile length and circumference dimensions of 1,661 sexually active men in the United States. J Sex Med. 2014;11(1):93-101. doi:10.1111/jsm.12244
• Johnston, L., McLellan, T., & McKinlay, A. (2014). (Perceived) size really does matter: Male dissatisfaction with penis size. Psychology of Men & Masculinity, 15(2), 225–228. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0033264
• King BM. The Influence of Social Desirability on Sexual Behavior Surveys: A Review. Arch Sex Behav. 2022;51(3):1495-1501. doi:10.1007/s10508-021-02197-0
• King BM. Average-Size Erect Penis: Fiction, Fact, and the Need for Counseling. J Sex Marital Ther. 2021;47(1):80-89. doi:10.1080/0092623X.2020.1787279
• King BM, Duncan LM, Clinkenbeard KM, Rutland MB, Ryan KM. Social Desirability and Young Men's Self-Reports of Penis Size. J Sex Marital Ther. 2019;45(5):452-455. doi:10.1080/0092623X.2018.1533905
• Larson, R.B., 2019. Controlling social desirability bias. International Journal of Market Research, 61(5), pp.534-547.
• Stodel, M. (2015). But What Will People Think?: Getting beyond Social Desirability Bias by Increasing Cognitive Load. International Journal of Market Research, 57(2), 313-322. https://doi.org/10.2501/IJMR-2015-024   (Original work published 2015)

Spreadsheet with Penis Length Data

Our online courses and programs: 

• Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  
• Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 
• Medical Statistics Certificate Program  
• Writing in the Sciences 
• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on social:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) - Introduction

Wrinkles and sagging skin—just normal aging, or can you blame your sweet tooth? We dive into “sugar sag,” exploring how sugar, processed foods, and even your crispy breakfast toast might be making you look older than if you’d said no to chocolate cake and yes to broccoli. Along the way, we encounter statistical adjustment, training and test data sets, what we call “references to nowhere,” plus some cadavers and collagen. Ever heard of an AGE reader? Find out how this tool might offer a sneak peek at your date’s age—and maybe even a clue about his… um… “performance.”

Statistical topics 

• Training and test sets
• Statistical adjustment
• Overfitting 
• Plagiarism
• Proper citing practices
• References to nowhere

Methodologic morals

• “When you plagiarize, you steal the errors too.”
• “Overdone statistical adjustment is like overdone photo filters–at a certain point it’s just laughable.”

Citations

Collagen turnover: 

• Verzijl N, DeGroot J, Thorpe SR, et al.Effect of Collagen Turnover on the Accumulation of Advanced Glycation End Products. JBC. 2000;275:39027-31.

Cadaver study:

• Hamlin CR, Kohn RR, Luschin JH. Apparent Accelerated Aging of Human Collagen in Diabetes Mellitus. Diabetes. 1975; 24: 902–904.

AGE Reader

Studies of AGEs and diabetes and health:

• Monnier VM, Cerami A. Nonenzymatic browning in vivo: possible process for aging of long-lived proteins. Science. 1981;211:491-3. 
• Brownlee M, Vlassara H, Cerami A. Nonenzymatic glycosylation and the pathogenesis of diabetic complications. Ann Intern Med. 1984;101:527-37. 
• Monnier VM, Vishwanath V, Frank KE, et al. Relation between Complications of Type I Diabetes Mellitus and Collagen-Linked Fluorescence. N Engl J Med. 1986;314:403-408.
• Monnier VM, Sell DR, Abdul-Karim FW, et al. Collagen browning and cross-linking are increased in chronic experimental hyperglycemia. Relevance to diabetes and aging. Diabetes. 1988;37:867-72. 
• Monnier VM, Bautista O, Kenny D, et al. Skin collagen glycation, glycoxidation, and crosslinking are lower in subjects with long-term intensive versus conventional therapy of type 1 diabetes: relevance of glycated collagen products versus HbA1c as markers of diabetic complications. Diabetes 1999; 48: 870–80.
• Genuth S, Sun W, Cleary P, et al. Glycation and carboxymethyllysine levels in skin collagen predict the risk of future 10-year progression of diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy in the diabetes control and complications trial and epidemiology of diabetes interventions and complications participants with type 1 diabetes. Diabetes. 2005;54:3103-11. 
• van Waateringe RP, Slagter SN, van Beek AP, et al. Skin autofluorescence, a non-invasive biomarker for advanced glycation end products, is associated with the metabolic syndrome and its individual components. Diabetol Metab Syndr. 2017;9:42. 
• Kouidrat Y, Zaitouni A, Amad A, et al. Skin autofluorescence (a marker for advanced glycation end products) and erectile dysfunction in diabetes. J Diabetes Complications. 2017;3:108-113. 
• Fujita N, Ishida M, Iwane T, et al. Association between Advanced Glycation End-Products, Carotenoids, and Severe Erectile Dysfunction. World J Mens Health. 2023;41:701-11. 
• Uruska A, Gandecka A, Araszkiewicz A, et al. Accumulation of advanced glycation end products in the skin is accelerated in relation to insulin resistance in people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. Diabet Med. 2019;36:620-625. 
• Boersma HE, Smit AJ, Paterson AD, et al. Skin autofluorescence and cause-specific mortality in a population-based cohort. Sci Rep 2024;14:19967.

Review article with conflicts of interest: 

• Draelos ZD. Sugar Sag: What Is Skin Glycation and How Do You Combat It? J Drugs Dermatol. 2024; 23:s5-10.

Clinical study on AGE interrupter cream:

• Draelos ZD, Yatskayer M, Raab S, Oresajo C. An evaluation of the effect of a topical product containing C-xyloside and blueberry extract on the appearance of type II diabetic skin. J Cosmet Dermatol. 2009;8:147-51. 

The citation trail:

• 2023 review article: Zgutka K, Tkacz M, Tomasiak, et al. A Role for Advanced Glycation End Products in Molecular Ageing. Int J Mol Sci. 2023; 24: 9881. Sentence: “Interestingly, strict control of blood sugar for 4 months reduced the production of glycosylated collagen by 25%, and low-sugar food prepared by boiling could also reduce the production of AGEs [152].”
• Reference 152 is a review article: Cao C, Xiao Z, Wu Y, et al. Diet and Skin Aging-From the Perspective of Food Nutrition. Nutrients. 2020;12:870. Sentence: “However, strict control of blood sugar for four months can reduce the production of glycosylated collagen by 25%, and low-sugar food prepared by boiling can also reduce the production of AGEs [93–95].”
• Reference 93 is a review article: Nguyen HP, Katta R. Sugar sag: Glycation and the role of diet in aging skin. Skin Ther Lett. 2015; 20: 1–5. Sentence: “Tight glycemic control over a 4-month period can result in a reduction of glycated collagen formation by 25%.37,38”
• Reference 94 and 38 is a review article: Draelos ZD. Aging skin: the role of diet: facts and controversies. Clin Dermatol. 2013;31:701-6. Sentence: “Tighter glycemic control can reduce glycated collagen by 25% in 4 months.” No citation given.
• Reference 95 and 37 is a review article: Danby FW. Nutrition and aging skin: Sugar and glycation. Clin. Dermatol. 2010;28: 409–11. Sentence: “...tight glycemic control can drop glycated collagen formation by 25% in 4 months.” No citation given.
• The origi...

What if you could treat your prediabetes with . . . worms? Regina and Kristin dive into a surprising early-phase clinical trial on hookworm therapy—that’s right, intentionally infecting yourself with parasitic worms—to treat metabolic conditions. They dig into the biological rationale (inflammation, abdominal fat, and gut immunology), the clever study design (hello, Tabasco sauce!), and the statistical chops behind this phase 1B trial (block randomization, missing data, and nonparametric hypothesis tests).  Along the way, expect self-experimenting scientists, worm sex, poop analysis, and the world’s nerdiest aphrodisiac: a well-documented protocol.

Statistical topics

• Randomized controlled trial (RCT)
• Primary and secondary outcomes
• Placebos, placebo effect, and nocebo effect
• Block randomization
• Sample size
• Double-blinding
• Missing data protocols
• Reproducible research
• Nonparametric hypothesis testing
• Kruskal-Wallis test

Methodological morals

• “Walk before you can run. Invest in simple but high-quality Phase I clinical trials.”
• “When faced with small samples, you better rank and sum, baby.”

References

• Pierce DR, McDonald M, Merone L, et al. Effect of experimental hookworm infection on insulin resistance in people at risk of type 2 diabetes. Nat Commun. 2023;14(1):4503. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40263-4
• Nuzzo, R. What Happens When Scientists Experiment on Themselves? Reader’s Digest. Updated April 16, 2016.
• Ethics of self-experimentation 
• Helminthic Therapy Wiki 
• Pritchard D. Worming your way to good health [video online]. TEDx Talks. Published November 19, 2013. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm5DcdZbnGA
• Chapman PR, Giacomin P, Loukas A, McCarthy JS. Experimental human hookworm infection: a narrative historical review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021;15(12):e0009908. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009908
• Sobotková K, Parker W, Levá J, Růžková J, Lukeš J, Jirků Pomajbíková K. Helminth Therapy - From the Parasite Perspective. Trends Parasitol. 2019;35(7):501-515. doi:10.1016/j.pt.2019.04.009
• Zatterale F, Longo M, Naderi J, et al. Chronic Adipose Tissue Inflammation Linking Obesity to Insulin Resistance and Type 2 Diabetes. Front Physiol. 2020;10:1607. Published 2020 Jan 29. doi:10.3389/fphys.2019.01607

Kristin and Regina’s online courses

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Program we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (02:44) - What happens when scientists experiment on themselves

Does a daily glass of wine really keep the cardiologist away? It’s a claim we’ve all heard: light to moderate drinking is good for your heart. But is it science or just a convenient excuse for happy hour? In this episode, we dive into the history behind this claim, discuss the challenges of observational studies and statistical adjustment, and explore attempts at randomized trials and natural experiments to get to the bottom of this boozy debate. Grab your drink—or maybe don’t—and join us!

Statistical topics

• Statistical Adjustment
• Regression
• Residual and Unmeasured Confounding
• Randomized Trials
• Multiple Testing
• Outcome Switching
• Mendelian Randomization 

Methodological morals
“Statistical adjustment cannot erase all confounding.”

“When you can’t experiment on people, let Nature experiment on people.”

Citations

• Alcohol and Drinking. Gallup Poll. 2024. 
• Canada’s Guidance on Alcohol and Health. Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction. 2023.  
• U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 2020 – 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. 2020.
• U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Alcohol and Cancer Risk: The US Surgeon General's Advisory. 2025.
• Mezue K, Osborne MT, Abohashem S, et al. Reduced stress-related neural network activity mediates the effect of alcohol on cardiovascular risk. JACC. 2023;81:2315-25.
• McPhillips D, Goodman B. Small amounts of alcohol may turn down stress in the brain, benefiting the heart, new study finds. CNN. June 12, 2023.
• Friedman GD, Klatsky AL. Is alcohol good for your health? NEJM. 1993;329:1882-3.
• Sainani K. Alcohol and Weight. Allure. July 14, 2010.
• Wang LU, Lee IM, Manson JE, et al. Alcohol consumption, weight gain, and risk of becoming overweight in middle-aged and older women. Arch Intern Med. 2010;170:453-61.
• Sainani K. Drinking and Weight. Allure. Oct 31, 2008.
• Tolstrup JS, Halkjær J, Heitmann BL, et al. Alcohol drinking frequency in relation to subsequent changes in waist circumference. Am J Clin Nutr. 2008;87:957-63.
• Rabin RC. Major Study on Drinking Will be Shut Down. New York Times. June 15, 2018.
• Mitchell G, Lesch M, McCambridge J. Alcohol industry involvement in the moderate alcohol and cardiovascular health trial. AJPH. 2020;110:485-8.
• Gepner Y, Golan R, Harman-Boehm I, et al. Effects of Initiating Moderate Alcohol Intake on Cardiometabolic Risk in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A 2-Year Randomized, Controlled Trial. Ann Intern Med. 2015;163:569-79.
• Slade E, Drysdale H, Goldacre B, et al. Discrepancies between prespecified and reported outcomes. Ann Intern Med. 2016;164:374.
• Biddinger KJ, Emdin CA, Haas ME, et al. Association of habitual alcohol intake with risk of cardiovascular disease. JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5:e223849.

Page with more details on the CASCADE trial

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

• Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  
• Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 
• Medical Statistics Certificate Program  
• Writing in the Sciences 
• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Program that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00) - Introduction

Wear red and drive men wild with lust – or so says scientific research on color’s role in human mating. But can a simple color swap really boost a woman’s hotness score? In this episode, we delve into the evidence behind the Red Dress Effect, from a controversial first study in college men to what the latest research says about who this trick might work for (and who it might not). Along the way we encounter red monkey butts, old-Internet websites, the Winner’s Curse in scientific research, adversarial collaborations, and why size (ahem, sample size) really does matter. 

Statistical topics

• Reproducibility crisis in psychology
• Sample size
• Selection bias
• Winner’s curse
• Cohen’s d standardized effect size
• Adversarial collaboration
• Meta-analysis
• Preregistration
• Publication bias
• Statistical moderators

Methodological morals

“The smaller the sample, the flashier the result, the less you should trust it.”

“Good scientists learn from their statistical mistakes and fix them.”

References

• Clarke, G. How to Be Sexy: 7 Weird (But True) Rules of Attraction. Allure. January 23, 2013.
• Nuzzo, R. Vying for a soul mate? Psych out the competition with science. Los Angeles Times. December 8, 2008. 
• Vying for a Soul Mate on the Today Show, December 30, 2008.
• Elliot, A.J. and Niesta, D. Romantic red: red enhances men's attraction to women.  Journal of personality and social psychology. 2008; 95: 1150 – 1164. 
• Lehrer, J. The Truth Wears Off. The New Yorker, December 5, 2010. 
• MacMahon, B., Yen, S., Trichopoulos, D., Warren, K. and Nardi, G. Coffee and cancer of the pancreas. New England Journal of Medicine. 1981; 304: 630-633.
• Ioannidis, J.P. Why most published research findings are false. PLoS medicine. 2005; 2(8), e124 
• Lehmann, G.K., Elliot, A.J. and Calin-Jageman, R.J. Meta-analysis of the effect of red on perceived attractiveness. Evolutionary Psychology. 2018; 16: 1474704918802412. 
• Pazda, A.D., Thorstenson, C.A. and Elliot, A.J. The effect of red on attractiveness for highly attractive women. Curr Psychol. 2023; 42: 8066–8073

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Chapters

• (00:00) - Introduction

Can you really sit on your couch, pop vitamin D pills, and shave seconds off your 5k? Touted as a miracle cure-all, vitamin D is claimed to slash cancer and infection risks while boosting mood, cognition, and athletic performance. But does upping your vitamin D really make you healthier and happier? In this episode, we’ll follow the epidemiologic evidence—from clues in petri dishes through randomized trials. Along our journey, we’ll encounter chocolate-fueled Nobel Prizes, rock stars, pasty Brits, and a tangled mess of promiscuous variables.

Statistical topics

• ecological studies
• ecological fallacy
• correlation is not causation
• observational studies
• statistical adjustment
• confounding
• randomized trials
• factorial design
• post-hoc analyses
• subgroup analyses

Methodologic morals

• “Variables with too many entanglements make observational studies a fool’s game.”
• “If your intervention works only when you torture your data, it’s probably a false confession.”

Citations

Garland CF, Garland FC. Do sunlight and vitamin D reduce the likelihood of colon cancer? Int J Epidemiol. 1980;9:227-31.

Messerli FH. Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and Nobel laureates. N Engl J Med. 2012;367:1562-64.

Holick, MF. The Vitamin D Solution: A 3-Step Strategy to Cure Our Most Common Health Problems. Penguin Publishing Group, 2011. 

McMillan A. Can vitamin D boost your fitness routine? Dec 18, 2018.

Marawan A, Kurbanova N, Qayyum R. Association between serum vitamin D levels and cardiorespiratory fitness in the adult population of the USA. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2019;26:750-55.

Vitamin D levels in the blood linked to cardiorespiratory fitness. European Society of Cardiology. Oct 30, 2018.

Jones AM, Kirby BS, Clark IE, et al. Physiological demands of running at 2-hour marathon race pace. J Appl Physiol. 2021;130:369-79.

Manson JE, Bassuk SS, Lee IM, et al. The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): rationale and design of a large randomized controlled trial of vitamin D and marine omega-3 fatty acid supplements for the primary prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. Contemp Clin Trials. 2012;33:159-71.

Manson JE, Cook NR, Lee IM, et al. Vitamin D supplements and prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. NEJM. 2019;380:33-44.

Lee KL, McNeer JF, Starmer CF, et al. Clinical judgment and statistics: lessons from a simulated randomized trial in coronary artery disease. Circulation. 1980; 61:508-15.

Wood S. VITAL: No Benefits to Vitamin D and Omega-3s in Reducing Major CV Events, Cancer. TCTMD.com. Nov 10, 2018.

Neale RE, Baxter C, Romero BD, et al. The D-Health Trial: a randomised controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D on mortality. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2022;10:120-28.

Okereke OI, Reynolds CF, Mischoulon D, et al. Effect of Long-term Vitamin D3 Supplementation vs Placebo on Risk of Depression or Clinically Relevant Depressive Symptoms and on Change in Mood Scores: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA. 2020;324:471-80.

LeBoff MS, Murata EM, Cook NR, et al. VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): Effects of Vitamin D Supplements on Risk of Falls in the US Population. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2020;105:2929-38.

Albert CM, Cook NR, Pester J, et al. Effect of Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acid and Vitamin D Supplementation on Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA. 2021;325:1061-73.

Rist PM, Buring JE, Cook NR, et al. Effect of Vitamin D and/or Marine n-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Changes in Migraine Frequency and Severity. Am J Med. 2021;134:756-62.

Christen WG, Cook NR, Manson JE, et al. Effect of Vitamin D and ω-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: An Ancillary Study of the VITAL Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Ophthalmol. 2020;138:1280-89.

MacFarlane LA, Cook NR, Kim E, et al. The Effects of Vitamin D and Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Chronic Knee Pain in Older US Adults: Results From a Randomized Trial. Arthritis Rheumatol. 2020 Nov;72(11):1836-1844.

Chou SH, Murata EM, Yu C, et al. Effects of Vitamin D3 Supplementation on Body Composition in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2021;106:1377-88.

Kang JH, Vyas CM, Okereke OI, et al. Effect of vitamin D on cognitive decline: results from two ancillary studies of the VITAL randomized trial. Sci Rep. 2021;11:23253.

Rist PM, Buring JE, Cook NR, et al. Effect of vitamin D and/or omega‐3 fatty acid supplementation on stroke outcomes: A randomized trial. Eur J Neurol. 2021;28:809-15.

Hahn J, Cook NR, Alexander EK, et al. Vitamin D and marine omega 3 fatty acid supplementation and incident autoimmune disease: VITAL randomized controlled trial. BMJ. 2022;376:e066452

LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Murata EM, et al. Effects of Supplemental Vitamin D on Bone Health Outcomes in Women and Men in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). J Bone Miner Res. 2020;35:883-93.

LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Ratliff KA, et al. Supplemental vitamin D and incident fractures in midlife and older adults. NEJM. 2022;387:299-309.

Kolata G. Study finds another condition that vitamin D pills do not help. The New York Times. July 27, 2022

Jolliffe DA, Holt H, Greenig M, et al. Effect of a test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementa...