Notes by Retraice

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Ma17: Addendum--Thinking and Computing

Margin by Retraice^1

We also did homework and code during November 2020 to February 2022.

Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 5:00 PM Eastern/US.

Books and homework

In Ma16^2 , I failed to discuss two things.

First, the thinking done during that period: Reading books and audiobooks is valuable to our business. I did a lot of reading to do with the 11 hypotheses^3 , and books on homework that I knew I should've already read by now, e.g. on evolution and chemistry. Also, I read conspiracy theory stuff, e.g. more on Allen Dulles and the CIA, and UFOs. All of this is in service of content, the core of our business.

Computing stuff

Second: The computing done during that period: I did initial work on the website in Feb. 2021, because we're seriously considering building our own website with Django (a Python web framework). It makes a lot of business sense to roll our own, although not necessary enough business sense yet. And then in October, during a lucky period, I spent about a month on software engineering (which is coding over time), learning about things such as Hyrum's Law.^4

Code because notes because content

Why on earth does a podcast needs thousands of lines of code? It's mostly to do with the show notes you're reading right now. They might seem like overkill at best, colossal waste at worse, but they're not for you, dear listener. They're for us. They make the content better, which is the most important thing in the podcasting universe. It's relatively easy to create a great segment (single episode), but it's very hard to create a great podcast (long-term series of episodes). Of course, Retraice and Margin are not great yet; but they're designed to eventually become great. And a huge part of that is the show notes, which make the content better by efficiently making thoughts and utterances possible that otherwise wouldn't be. Remember, we're just at the beginning of this thing (luck permitting). We've got a lot of WIP (work-in-progress, a nasty word in business), and processing that WIP depends on the constructive progress that the show notes make possible.

The code generates the notes, and then checks what's been generated. Text processing is no joke (special characters, and output reverse-checking^5 have created a lot of extra work for us). Currently, the output is: the full notes (you're reading now) in text and PDF, and the RSS feed and Youtube notes (key info, but no prose).

And even the notes themselves have caught some attention, e.g. Ma8^6 .

_

References

Margin (2020/10/28). Ma8: Revolution Before Evolution. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/ma8 Retrieved 30th Oct. 2020.

Margin (2022/03/02). Ma16: November 2020 to February 2022. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/ma16 Retrieved 5th Mar. 2022.

Retraice (2022/03/07a). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.

Retraice (2022/03/07b). Re18: Plan of Attack. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re18 Retrieved 25th Mar. 2022.

Winters, T., Manshreck, T., & Wright, H. (2020). Software Engineering at Google: Lessons Learned from Programming Over Time. O'Reilly Media. ISBN: 978-1492082798. Free version and Searches: https://abseil.io/resources/swe-book https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781492082798 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781492082798 https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/software-engineering-at/9781492082781/

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/margin

^2 Margin (2022/03/02)

^3 See Retraice (2022/03/07a) and Retraice (2022/03/07b).

^4 Winters et al. (2020) p. 8: "With a sufficient number of users of an API, it does not matter what you promise in the contract: all observable behaviors of your system will be depended on by somebody."

^5 By this term we mean: After the files to be published have been created, we then process those files `in reverse' to make sure that the output matches the input. Our software engineering skills are meager, but we are getting the job done.

^6 Margin (2020/10/28)

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Re18: Plan of Attack

Retraice^1

Our plan to test the 11 hypotheses begins with `objective observables' and numbers.

Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4:40 PM Eastern/US.

Recap

The hypotheses are answers to the question `What's going on out there?' (What's GOOT). They're based on (filtered down by) the idea that some things will be in the history books (`current history') and most things won't (stuff we don't care about^2).

We gave examples in Re17^3 : covid, Jan 6th, Ukraine 2022.

And then things got interesting

It's worth asking how much `current history' these events will ultimately amount to, especially if the wild predictions of Kurzweil and others^4 come to pass. The pace of change, however measured, makes all the difference here. A sufficiently rapid rate (speed), or rate of increase (acceleration) of change in the future will leave our era vanishingly little space in the book of history.

The hypotheses, again

H-1) Space H-2) Technology H-3) Death H-4) China H-5) US Civil War H-6) Environment H-7) Betterment H-8) Intelligence Differences (GOFID^5) H-9) Darkness (especially good guys') H-10) Wealth H-11) Wild cards

The questions that follow

Where did they come from?

The `chatter' (daily news, daily conversations) is a good way of staying in touch with the present, or `reality now'. And books (and the discussion of books) is a good way of detecting the things that might qualify as `current history'. If the books correspond to current history, the chatter corresponds to pages of those books (including the many deleted pages).

So what? What do we do with them?

Once we have hypotheses, we (at least) need a way of testing them.

A pile of numbers

Keep firmly in mind:

A hypothesis is not a prediction, but it can make predictions.

And, the way we're thinking about it now:

A hypothesis is in principle reducible to `objective observables', or `a pile of numbers'.

Definitions

Let's use these rough definitions: * objective: about things in the shared external world (a breeze, a tree, a person); The gold-standard of objectivity is the S.I. units (second, metre, kilogram, ampere, kelvin, mole, candela), which are constructed using `defining constants' with the aim of removing all disagreement between persons about fundamental aspects of the world in order to enable productive cooperation between those persons.^6 In principle, we could use these units to physically identify something (a breeze, a tree, a person) so that everyone would agree about what it is. In principle! * subjective: about things in someone's internal world of experience (a belief in air, seeing a tree move, thinking about it); * observable: sense-able by multiple humans (a tree blowing in the wind, a person standing watching, the absence of a visible object striking the tree); We can take observation to the limit, and say that nothing is `observable' except by the five sense organs (eyes, ears, nose, mouth and skin). But we'd have to add a sixth, `the mind's eye'^7 , to account for sensing one's own thoughts, feelings, etc. The sixth sense, though, would only observe subjective things, while the first five would observe objective things. Although a case can be made that a thought like 2 + 2 = 4 is objectively observable to any mind. And all this talk about sensing is to say nothing about whether a person is conscious of the sensation. But we can safely ignore all sensation that isn't conscious when talking about `observable' things, since unconsciously observing a thing breaks the meaning of `observe'. * unobservable: not directly sense-able by multiple humans (the molecules hitting tree branches, the experiences of a person, memories of previous breezes); * quantitative: about `how much' or `how many' things (the number of dinitrogen molecules in a breeze, the duration of it in seconds, the force experienced by the tree in newtons); * qualitative: about the `who / what / where / when / why / which / whether' of things (the definition of a dinitrogen molecule, the person who saw the breeze, the momentary time and direction of the breeze, the reason we use the word `breeze', the spatial boundaries of the atmosphere that we consider `this breeze' and when it started and ended, whether the breeze is objective / subjective / observable / unobservable).

Even with these semi-rigid definitions, it's hard to be systematic. A thing can be quantifiable, though better considered qualitative than quantitative. I.e. while it is often possible to quantify something, it is not always good to do so. And, as the saying goes, sometimes quantity has a quality all its own. We'll use (and improve on) these terms to analyze the aspects of a thing for the purposes of testing hypotheses, not expecting to settle philosophical debates about language and reality.

Ignoring quality

Trying to consider quality and quantity at the same time is hard. It might require a genius intellect to juggle so many aspects of a thing, and then who would be the audience for these hard-to-have thoughts? If we force our hypotheses to be only the objective observables, and focus on the quantitative aspects, we end up with a manageable pile of numbers. We can consider these numbers to be the essence of the hypothesis itself, assuming the qualitative can be safely ignored (this is a big assumption, and might prove false).

Ignoring quality is also relative, not absolute. Quality, as we've defined it, can't be strictly ignored, because the numbers must be `of' something not quantitative, i.e. something qualitative. Our pile of numbers is really a pile of counted or measured things.

An example--China

Take, for example, China (H-4): Graham Allison says^8 the U.S. and China are `destined for war' unless they avoid `Thucydides's trap', i.e. stumbling into war based on an established power fearing an up-and-comer, despite both parties desiring peace.^9 He's not shooting from the hip; he's looking at qualitative things (e.g. China's `century of humiliation'^10), naturally, but also quantitative things (e.g. GDP, imports, exports, reserves^11). If we start from the objective observable things, and especially quantitative things, maybe we'll avoid a lot of confusion and disagreement, though presumably at the expense of something that will have to be added back later.

Predictions

The pile of numbers might reveal patterns. Patterns allow us to interpolate and extrapolate--the equivalent of making predictions. We can then go check to see if the prediction matches reality. If a prediction agrees with an observation of reality then the hypothesis gets stronger--it becomes less and less likely that the hypothesis is wrong, more and more likely that it's right.

A note on induction

This whole business about the hypothesis getting stronger as more evidence agrees with it--this is not as straightforward as it seems. There are deep philosophical questions about inductive inference.^12 For now, let's pretend that there aren't, and bet that common sense will eventually be confirmed by science and philosophy.

Can and should

Suppose you test a hypothesis and become very confident in it. What can you do? If you've discovered a huge asteroid or a roving black hole about to hit the Earth, what can you do? But for most hypotheses, there will be a range of options available.

The next step is to narrow the list down to what you should do. Some guidance on this task can be found in Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice (2020/11/10).

Note

It took a long time to get to the point of having a specific, constructive, objective, meaningful way forward on the question `What's GOOT?' If Re17/Re18 have seemed a bit overloaded, or frantic, it has to do with that.

_

References

Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351

BIPM (2019). The International System of Units (SI). International Bureau of Weights and Measures, 9th ed. ISBN: 978-9282222720. https://www.bipm.org/utils/common/pdf/si-brochure/SI-Brochure-9.pdf Retrieved 22nd Apr. 2020.

Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2015). What to Think About Machines That Think: Today's Leading Thinkers on the Age of Machine Intelligence. Harper Perennial. ISBN: 978-0062425652. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0062425652 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0062425652 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016303054

Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2019). Possible Minds: Twenty-Five Ways of Looking at AI. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0525557999. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0525557999 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0525557999 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018032888

Frankfurt, H. G. (1988). The Importance of What We Care About. Cambridge. ISBN: 978-0521336116. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0521336116 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0521336116 https://lccn.loc.gov/87026941

Good, I. J. (1965). Speculations concerning the first ultraintelligent machine. Advances in Computers, 6, 31-88. https://exhibits.stanford.edu/feigenbaum/catalog/gz727rg3869 Retrieved 27th Oct. 2020.

Goodman, N. (1983). Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Harvard University Press, 4th revised ed. ISBN: 0674290712. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0674290712 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0674290712 https://lccn.loc.gov/82015764

Horwich, P. (1982). Probability and Evidence. Cambridge. First published 1982; first paperback 2011; this Cambridge Philosophy Classics edition 2016. ISBN: 978-1316507018. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1316507018 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1316507018 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015049717

Keynes, J. M. (1920). A Treatise on Probability: The Connection Between Philosophy and the History of Science. Wildside Press. ISBN: 978-1434406965. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781434406965 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781434406965 https://lccn.loc.gov/2004041359

Kurzweil, R. (1990). The Age of Intelligent Machines. MIT Press. ISBN: 0262111217. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0262111217 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0262111217 https://lccn.loc.gov/89013606

Kurzweil, R. (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. Penguin Books. ISBN: 0140282025. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0140282025 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0140282025 https://lccn.loc.gov/98038804

Kurzweil, R. (2005). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Penguin. ISBN: 978-0143037880. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0143037880 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0143037880 https://lccn.loc.gov/2004061231

Okasha, S. (2002). Philosophy of Science: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 0192802836. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0192802836 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0192802836 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002510456

Polya, G. (1954). Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning [Two Volumes in One]. Martino Fine Books. ISBN: 978-1614275572. Originally published 1954. This ed. 2014. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781614275572 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781614275572 https://lccn.loc.gov/53006388

Reichenbach, H. (1951). The Rise of Scientific Philosophy. University of California Press. ISBN: 0520010558. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0520010558 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0520010558 https://lccn.loc.gov/51009723

Retraice (2020/11/10). Re13: The Care Factor. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re13 Retrieved 10th Nov. 2020.

Retraice (2022/03/07). Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Retrieved 17th Mar. 2022.

Russell, B. (1948). Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits. Routledge. First published in 1948. This edition 1992. ISBN: 0415083028. Searches: https://archive.org/search.php?query=Human%20Knowledge%3A%20Its%20Scope%20and%20Limits https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0415083028 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0415083028 https://lccn.loc.gov/94209784

Sacks, O. (2010). The Mind's Eye. Vintage. ISBN: 978-0307473028. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780307473028 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780307473028 https://lccn.loc.gov/2010012791

Sainsbury, R. M. (2009). Paradoxes. Cambridge University Press, 3rd ed. ISBN: 978-0521720793. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780521720793 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780521720793 https://lccn.loc.gov/2009464288

Skyrms, B. (1966). Choice and Chance: An Introduction to Inductive Logic. Dickenson. No ISBN. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=choice+and+chance+skyrms https://www.google.com/search?q=choice+and+chance+skyrms https://lccn.loc.gov/66023586

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Again, it comes down to `care'. See Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice (2020/11/10). Although, strictly speaking, we (as individuals) care about plenty of things that won't end up in history books. For now, let's say that `we' refers to our civilization as a whole, which cannot care about individuals, for the most part. This is true in the same way that you cannot care much about all strangers within 200 miles of you, though in principle you might want to.

^3 Retraice (2022/03/07)

^4 Kurzweil (1990); Kurzweil (1999); Kurzweil (2005); Brockman (2019); Brockman (2015); Good (1965).

^5 Good-ol'-fashioned human intelligence differences, not to do with AI, animals, or other kinds of intelligence.

^6 BIPM (2019) p. 122.

^7 Cf. Sacks (2010) pp. 219-230.

^8 Allison (2018).

^9 Allison (2018) p. 29.

^10 Allison (2018) p. 161.

^11 All in dollars, Allison (2018) p. 6.

^12 Russell (1948) p. 418 ff.; Okasha (2002) chpt 2; Reichenbach (1951) pp. 176-190; Skyrms (1966) chpts. 2-4; Sainsbury (2009) chpt. 5; Goodman (1983) p. 72 ff.; Horwich (1982) chpt. 4; Keynes (1920) part III; Polya (1954) pp. v-vi, chpts. I and XI.

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Re17: Hypotheses to Eleven

Retraice^1

On `current history', or what might be going on out there.

Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4:20 PM Eastern/US.

What's GOOT

The point of departure for the Retraice podcast was `intelligence', which we divided into the natural, artificial and strategic kinds.^2 The point of departure for Retraice, Inc. is the question `What's going on out there?' (What's GOOT).

An answer to What's GOOT is a hypothesis.

Current history

Specifically, such a hypothesis should be about `What's going to be in the history books?', i.e. `current history', roughly speaking. This is a heuristic.^3 It's a good starting point because it gauges what humans care about, i.e. `the care factor'.^4

Examples since late 2020: o covid--it started in early 2020, but since late 2020 it has continued to dominate politics and economies; o Jan 6th, 2021, the attack on the U.S. capital building; o Ukraine, the Feb. 24th, 2022 Russian invasion.

Compare `current history' to news. There is a ton of news being produced every day, but most of it won't end up in history books.

Hypotheses [and some predictions]

Hypotheses make predictions, but are not themselves predictions.

Here is our starting list (none of the below statements or [predictions] is well-formed or accepted by us; they're just to get things started):

1. Space: Humans are now technologically capable of living in space. Zubrin (2019).

Obviously, since Yuri Gagarin and the Vostok 1, humans have demonstrated this capability. But duration and distance make a big difference, and independence is the gold standard. So if a human lived his whole adult life aboard the International Space Station, as re-supplied by Earthlings, he would be an Earthling. If he did the same thing on Mars, but received no supplies from Earth, he'd be a Martian. If he somehow did it untethered to a single planet or moon, he'd be a Spaceman.

The hypothesis, then, is that human Martians and Spacemen are technologically possible today. This hypothesis is still problematic because, in a sense, nothing is `technologically possible' until it has been demonstrated. So we would have to further qualify it by adding something like, `given a significant reallocation of resources and a certain interval of time.' The point is, there is no longer a physical or technical barrier in the way; the barriers are economic and political.

Similar qualifications and asterisks will be necessary for all the below hypotheses; we'll leave most of them unsaid.

1.1. [prediction]: Humans will soon live on Mars. Zubrin (1996).

To make this a useful prediction, i.e. useful for the purpose of testing the hypothesis, we have to (at least) define `soon'.

1.2. Humans should prioritize space exploration at least to mitigate risk, at most to fulfill the potential of Earth-originating life. Hawking (2018) chpts. 7-8; Zubrin (2019) part 1.

1.3. The Fermi Paradox is an ominous warning about risks to life in general. For an overview, see Cirkovic (2008) p. 131 ff. For a contrary argument, see Ord (2020) p. 53 ff. and the notes on pages 309 ff.

2. Technology: Human technology risks are growing faster than their mitigation. Rees (2003) pp. 74-75; Bostrom (2019); Sanger (2018) p. 323; Sapolsky (2018) pp. 619-620.

I.e. technology generally, as used by terrorists and psychos and well-meaning fools, and thought of as the increase in individual leverage, is causing risk to out-pace mitigation.

2.1. AI: Machines are beginning to resemble intelligent creatures. Dyson (1997) pp. xii, 101, 181, 191-192, 194; Dyson (2015); Dyson (2020).

2.2. Hacking is disproportionately dangerous to civilizations. Perlroth (2020) p. 388 ff.; Sanger (2018) pp. 320-324; Kaplan (2016) pp. 276-277.

2.3. Runaway bio or nano tech is physically possible. Nouri & Chyba (2008); Phoenix & Treder (2008).

3. Death: Human lifespan is being prolonged by new technologies. Gawande (2014) pp. 32-36; Johnson (2014) pp. 140-142; Walter (2020) pp. 44-46; Durant & Durant (1968) p. 99.

3.1. A longevity `escape velocity' is physically possible. de Grey (2007) p. 330, and p. 362 for the history of the term.

4. China: The U.S. is no longer the only superpower; war is likely. Allison (2018); Pillsbury (2015); Spalding (2019); Kilcullen (2020); Lee (2018); Osnos (2020/01/06).

4.1. The U.S. is declining. Orlov (2008); Putnam (2015); Chomsky (2017); Reid (2017) pp. 11, 212-218, p. 249 ff.

4.2. China is rising. Allison (2018); Mitter (2008); Pillsbury (2015).

4.3. [prediction]: Civilizational collapse (of the US and/or China and/or Russia) will happen within our lifetimes.

How long is `our lifetimes'? What if all three collapse due to a global collapse? This prediction needs lots of work.

5. Civil War: The U.S. seems vulnerable to a civil war this decade. Walter (2022).

`Seems' is crucial here. Even if it's not strictly vulnerable (given an objective definition of vulnerable^5 , the perception that it is vulnerable would have significant effects. And `this decade' is an arbitrary boundary. What if war broke out Jan. 1st, 2030, which is less than 8 years from now?

6. Environment: Humans are changing their earthly environment faster than they can adapt to it.

In a sense, this is strictly not true, since if we weren't adapting to it, we'd be dead. But credible, smart people are saying that this is the direction we're headed. Rees (2003) chpt. 8; Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008) chpt. 13; Ord (2020) pp. 102-119.

6.1. The Earth seems to be warming up significantly. Ord (2020) p. 103 and sources cited; Romm (2016) pp. 2-3; Pogue (2021) p. 9.

Again, the word `seems' means that there will be effects whether or not the warming is `significant'.

6.2. Humans are in the middle of an extinction event. Rees (2008) p. v; Rees (2003) p. 100 ff.; Ord (2020) p. 117 ff.

7. Betterment: Some things make the future better than the past.

The most obvious and uncontroversial is: reduction of violence. See Pinker (2011) chpts. 1-7 on the history of it and Sapolsky (2018)'s response to Pinker, pp. 615-620.

Two more obvious and uncontroversial things that make the future better than the past are: reduction of cruelty and reduction of suffering. Baumeister (1999) pp. 375-378.

Alternatively, for a definition of `progress' we might use "the increasing control of the environment by life." Durant & Durant (1968) p. 98.

Alternatively again, for a definition of `progress' we might say, increasing "the transmission of our mental, moral, technical, and aesthetic heritage as fully as possible to as many as possible", i.e. `education'. Durant & Durant (1968) p. 101.

On the complexity of what each of us considers `better', consider the concept of `caring'. See Frankfurt (1988) and Retraice (2020/11/10).

8. Intelligence: There are intelligence differences. Herrnstein & Murray (1996); Sternberg (2020); Deary (2001). Also, see Sapolsky (2018) p. 582 on IQ and death row, and Baumeister (1999) pp. 263-264 on self-control and crime.

9. Darkness: There is a pervasive darkness in humans, even amongst the good guys.

+ Salter (2003) pp. 10-14 on pervasiveness; + Pinker (2011) chpt. 8, especially pp. 490-492 and Baumeister (1999), e.g. pp. 68-69 and chpt. 8, on universality, i.e. `even amongst the good guys'; + Sapolsky (2018) pp. 602-603 and p. 611 on biological and environmental components of criminal behavior and (perceived) wrongdoing.

Obviously our definition of `darkness' and `good guys' makes all the difference. But consider:

+ Shirer (1959), e.g. pp. 231-232 and pp. 239-240, on the complacency of non-Nazi Germans; + O'Donnell (2004), e.g. pp. 54-55, on the brutality of wartime espionage; + Stephens-Davidowitz (2018) pp. 6-7 and pp. 121-122 on the ugliness of our Google searches; + Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 5-14 on our ulterior motives, primarily selfishness; + Chomsky (1970) pp. 3-4 on `the backroom boys', i.e. chemists at Dow Chemical who made napalm a more and more vicious weapon, pleasing at least one American pilot. Chomsky is quoting a caption from a photo book about the Vietnam war, Griffiths (1971). + Sapolsky (2018) chpt. 13 on the biological underpinnings of moral behavior; + Baumeister (1999) p. 205 and Salter (2003) pp. 104-105 on the acquired nature of sadism.

9.1. Good guys with darkness are yet good.

Examples require first defining `darkness' and `good'. But consider how many world leaders, reasonably credited with doing good things, also had/have dark sides. Can we really decide that a president (JFK, adultery), or an activist (MLK, adultery), or a politician (W. Bush, Iraq), or a general (Powell, Iraq), or a musician (Eminem, misogynist language), or a comedian (Chappelle, misogynist language), or an athlete (Armstrong, doping) who has done wrong is therefor a bad guy? But `not bad guy' is a poor definition of `good guy'. So what is the threshold of good things (as defined by which or how many people) a person must do to be considered `good'?

(Note: We're not unaware that this list is all men, and that `guy' can be read as referring only to men. Please consider that examples of women who have famously done good but also famously done bad are harder to construct, and that we use `guys' as a single-syllable synonym for `people' or `persons'.)

9.2. What makes the darkness so powerful is a general unwillingness to acknowledge it.

This hypothesis needs a lot of work, but consider:

o Pinker (2011) p. 492 and Simler & Hanson (2018) chpt. 5 on self-deception; o Salter (2003) chpt. 9 on `rose-colored glasses and trauma'; o Baumeister (1999) p. 379 on the stereotype of `pure evil'.

10. Wealth: The current trend toward concentration of wealth is making human life worse. Chomsky (2017) pp. ix-xi; Putnam (2015) p. 35. These sources focus on the U.S. For a global perspective on the past two decades, showing a slight decrease in concentration, see Shorrocks et al. (2019) p. 25 ff.

The hypothesis is obviously sensitive to definitions of `human life' and `better/worse'.

11. Wildcards: New technologies, new discoveries about reality, and deception regularly cause historic changes.

Considerations and candidates:

+ Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12 on history, technology and `fundamental forces'; + Bostrom (2011) on the dangers of certain kinds of (true) information; + Bostrom (2019) on `black ball' inventions; + Simler & Hanson (2018), e.g. p. 30, on the competitive basis of human deception and detection; + Grabo (2002) chpt. 7 on the difficulty of the problem of deception; + Vallee (1979) pp. 67-68 on science problems vs. counterespionage problems; + Keyhoe (1950), an early journalistic account of UFO sightings; + Lazar (2019), a seemingly credible scientist's account of a massive conspiracy; + Dolan (2000) and Dolan (2009), a seemingly competent historian's documentation of evidence consistent with a massive conspiracy; + Kelleher & Knapp (2005), a scientist's and journalist's seemingly credible account of bizarre observations and reports; + Johnson (2014), a history of the dramatic effects of new science and technologies; + Andrew (2018), a history of secrets kept; + Diamond (1997) p. 426 ff., arguing that uneven distribution of resources significantly affects human history, and Frank & Bernanke (2001) pp. 535-537 and Zubrin (2019) p. 303, arguing that what is a resource depends on available technology.

What's next?

Given what we know (or believe): * How should we test the hypotheses? * What can we do about them? * What should we do?

__

References

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Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Re1 (Retraice (2020/09/07)) outlines the scope, and Re1-Re13 cover the kinds.

^3 We're using the computer science meaning of heuristic, i.e. a simple but imperfect way of solving a hard problem. The psychology meaning, i.e. answering a hard question by unconsciously substituting it with an easier, related one, is slightly different. The difference is that we're consciously substituting the hard question with the easier one. Cf. Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 84, Kahneman (2011) p. 98.

^4 Retraice (2020/11/10). But history has some reliability problems (Hamming (2020) pp. 10-12) and a noise problem (Durant & Durant (1968) p. 97).

^5 Cf. Walter (2022) p. 198, "Civil wars are rare...."

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Re16: Trust is a Response

Retraice^1

On ways of thinking about trust.

Air date: Wednesday, 2nd Mar. 2022, 5:45 PM Eastern/US.

Go read the Re15 pdf notes

Recall from Re15^2 that I mentioned some `guys', left unnamed. They're named and cited in the notes (Lippmann, Bernays, Chomsky). There is also a lot of good stuff about trust in the notes that wasn't in the segment.

Where is a good, clean, useful, non-crap way of thinking about trust?

I went looking for a good way of thinking about trust and didn't find it. What I did find is that trust is surprisingly neglected in philosophy, but it rears its head in lots of other places (see the citations in the Re15 pdf notes).

Tests--the bridge model

I think you should think in terms of tests. Imagine knowing absolutely nothing about bridges and then having to decide whether to walk across one. You know about falling, but not bridges. You put one foot on, see what happens. You watch someone else walk across, which is a good way to test the bridge (if morally questionable).

A test is an interaction with the environment wherein you think you know what the outcome should be and then you observe what the outcome actually is. If your expectation^3 lines up with the real observation (reality?^4), that part of the world passed the test you were running on it--whether you knew you were running a test or not.

If you run the right kinds of tests, the right number of tests, in the right situations--all of which can vary and affect the quantity or quality of trust--you'll have some kind of trust at the end.

Physical trust

It's also probably true that there are physical foundations to trust that dictate what trust is and can be. Biological organisms are a very physical thing. Trust might not be (only) memories. Babies don't have memories in the way kids and adults do; but they do something akin to trusting.

Our trust and yours

Trust is a response: It's not a trait, it's a state. It's very circumstantial, but that doesn't mean it's very temporary--it can last for decades.

If you want to know what's going on out there (this is what Retraice is all about), trust is essential. So, as a business, we first need to go find out what's going on out there (which requires careful understanding and use of trust, a methodology). And then, once we have valuable information, we have to cause a trust response in our audience in order to deliver it. We care supremely about trust, as a business, because without it we're nothing.

References

Gefter, A., & Hoffman, D. (2016/04/25). The case against reality. The Atlantic. Previously published in Quanta. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/04/the-illusion-of-reality/479559/ Retrieved 31 Oct 2020.

Hoffman, D. (2019). The Case Against Reality: Why Evolution Hid the Truth from Our Eyes. W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN: 978-0393254693. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0393254693 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0393254693 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019006962

Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.

Retraice (2020/11/25). Re15: Trust and Sources. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re15 Retrieved 28th Feb. 2022.

Russell, B. (1948). Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits. Routledge. First published in 1948. This edition 1992. ISBN: 0415083028. Searches: https://archive.org/search.php?query=Human%20Knowledge%3A%20Its%20Scope%20and%20Limits https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0415083028 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0415083028 https://lccn.loc.gov/94209784

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Retraice (2020/11/25)

^3 Cf. Retraice (2020/09/07) and Russell (1948) p. 526: "As mankind have advanced in intelligence, their inferential habits have come gradually nearer to agreement with the laws of nature which have made these habits, throughout, more often a source of true expectations than of false ones. The forming of inferential habits which lead to true expectations is part of the adaptation to the environment upon which biological survival depends."

^4 Cf. Gefter & Hoffman (2016/04/25) and Hoffman (2019).

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Ma16: November 2020 to February 2022

Margin by Retraice^1

On productivity while not producing.

Air date: Wednesday, 2nd Mar. 2022, 4:30 PM Eastern/US.

Production scripts

We haven't published in over a year, and the best way to explain why is that we've been building a podcast assembly line. But that's only part of the reason for delay. The other part is personal stuff.

For about three months (Nov. '20 to Feb. '21) I worked on production scripts: everything that could be automated in our segment production process.

Labor saves cash

Then, we (personally) decided to move across the country.

That took a lot more time because of the business, i.e. because we're on one income and therefor Jeff's labor saves us cash.

The economic reality is that (almost) anything you, as a founder, can do to save your personal cash, you must do.

Delusions and postponed activity

Even when production is not possible, the business lives. Turning it off for a while, like it's an appliance, is not a thing.

Most of our overhead is not terribly expensive, and turning it all off and back on again would be a lot of hassle.

Our cash burn rate, at zero publishing, is about $2,400 per year; at full-speed publishing, it's about $3,600 per year, so about $100 per month difference.

It is not really possible to stop a business once it's `launched'--or even earlier than that. In fact, we weren't even `off the ground' or `launched' until our first paywalled segment, which was March 1st, 2022 (a few days ago). This wasn't an accident; our business can't credibly do a sale until something is not obtainable without buying it from us. And we didn't reach that point quickly.

And the whole time we were in this transition state we were planning to publish here and there, somehow. This turned out to be a delusion, mostly because of the physical and temporal overhead of live and video production (as opposed to just basic audio / podcast production).

A one-man, thinking business

Life postponed the activity of the business, but not the thinking. This is crucial in our business, which is significantly affected by thoughts; we are less affected by, say, commodity prices, labor supply, etc.

Spark plugs, transmission fluid, oil

In Feb. 2021, I left the production scripts in a state that made it much harder to start them up again after eight months had passed. Even though everything I'd build worked near-perfectly, it took a lot of time for me to remember or discover the very few, crucial things that I had left in a non-ready state.

Oh, and accounting

In the middle of doing that restart work, I realized we needed to change our accounting system--and that it would be largely roll-your-own, which meant a month of extra work.

The assembly line

Our business resembles manufacturing cars: you don't just build the car, you build the assembly line that makes the mass-production possible. The car alone is not very valuable.

Btw, the holy grail of podcasting is to figure out how to make a great podcast, which is hard, not just a great episode/segment, which is much easier.

Btw, almost all of the complexity of our publishing rig (and process) is caused by the live and video elements. Good-old-fashioned podcast production is easy. I know this because I did a simple, high-quality podcast test without those things, and it was stupid easy.

Owning vs. being a business

Ma15^2 mentioned that I was having trouble with my voice; that problem has not gotten worse, mercifully. But it has made us realize how dependent Retraice is on the fragility of my particular body, which is a bad dependency to have. We're working on fixing this.

Assumption no more

Ma15's other `threat' was our business assumptions. Chief among them: Will people subscribe? As of yesterday (March 1st, 2022), we're testing that assumption.

References

Margin (2020/11/25). Ma15: Two Threats. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/ma15 Retrieved 28th Feb. 2022.

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/margin

^2 Margin (2020/11/25)

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Ma15: Two Threats

Margin by Retraice^1

On some things that could end our business.

Air date: Wednesday, 25th Nov. 2020, 12:50 PM Pacific/US.

Iceberg basics

The part that you can see doesn't look dangerous; the part that you can't see could be. You and the iceberg both have parts that are above and below the water line.

Our two--my voice, and the subscriber assumption

Things we see, somewhat in our forward path, that could destroy our business: 1. My voice: I've got a problem with it; if it gets worse, it will kill the business. 2. The subscriber assumption: Will they?

Thoughts on advertising

In a content business, when an audience declines to pay money, they're choosing to pay (only) with their attention. This should be thought of as a choice. If the business then makes money through advertising, it is (perhaps) equivalent to: * selling the audience's attention, or * licensing the content to other companies with permission to modify (by inserting adds) and republish it, or * wholesaling content to retailers who mark it up by increasing the `attention' price (inserting ads).

For us, the issue is finding out, as soon as possible, whether people will subscribe. If they won't, we can pivot to advertising, and look for ways to do it without ruining our credibility.

The subscriber assumption(s)

How do we test the subscriber assumptions^2 , e.g.: * that people will subscribe under some (yet unknown to us) circumstances; * that they need a body of content first; * that they're willing to go through sign-up; * etc.?

It might be (for us) as simple as just pay-walling a segment. But is that a test? It's hard to know what the unit should be. When does a single test cycle start and end? If we get no subscribers after the first pay-wall, what does that really tell us? Anything? How about after the fifth? The five-hundredth?

Pivoting

Given the icebergs of our business, and our recent experience dabbling in code, software has got our attention.

Hard businesses and soft businesses

It's the difference between customers paying for needs and customers paying for wants. Retraice, in its current form, is a soft business.

References

Margin (2020/10/22). Ma4: Assumptions (A Wrestling Match). retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/ma4 Retrieved 24th Oct. 2020.

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Currency / Crown / Penguin Random House. ISBN: 978-0307887894. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307887894 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307887894 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011012100

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/margin

^2 On testing assumptions, see Ries (2011), e.g. p. 81 `Strategy Is Based On Assumptions'. See also Margin (2020/10/22).

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience. See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Re15: Trust and Sources

Retraice^1

On the neglected basis of all knowledge and belief.

Air date: Wednesday, 25th Nov. 2020, 1:30 PM Pacific/US.

Detection and reports

Perhaps the only difference between something you perceive directly and something somebody tells you is how much you trust it.

Instead of talking about `sources', we can talk about detection and reports. Cf. Russell on knowledge by acquaintance (detection) and knowledge by description (reports).^2

The mirrors of Rjukan, Norway

They don't get enough sunlight at that latitude and near those mountains, so they reflect sunlight into the town using mirrors.^3

If you believe this, it is because reports and trust have convinced you (unless you've been to Rjukan).

Fakes, tech and incentives

While new technologies (e.g. deep-faking) do make fake reports (images, audio, videos) more possible, only incentives can make fakes probable. But as technology gets better, the requisite level of faking-incentive goes down.

Do you trust everything you perceive?

Hallucinations can be profound or barely noticeable.^4 Michael Shermer thought he was abducted by aliens but later concluded he was just riding too much bike.^5 What changed was the trust--he went from trusting earlier detection to trusting later detection and reports from others.

Trust is a mess

There's no clear, widely-known way to think about trust and sources. Adding `detection and reports' doesn't help.

Recall Cynthia Grabo^6 on deception.

A hundred years ago, Walter Lippmann wrestled with this problem.^7 It was essentially the same problem back then that it is today. Edward Bernays also worked on it.^8 Noam Chomsky had lots to say about both of them.^9 See also Ken Thompson from the programming point of view.^10

Even if you have a good system for deciding trust problems^11 , an adversary who knows you're using that system will probably find weaknesses in it and cause you to mistrust. This gets dark.^12 And it's also what computer hacking is about.^13

The concept of trust is scattered throughout the security-related and other literatures, as: o essential to military hardware^14 o catalyst of intelligence work^15 o prerequisite to espionage^16 o leading to a `deception paradox'^17 o the central problem of counterespionage^18 o most dangerous in the form of `insiders'^19 o the central problem of Internet security^20 o obviating the need for large-scale surveillance and enabling large-scale long-term cooperation^21 o gained by contracts, credit scores and references^22 o gained by deception^23 o gained by self-deception^24 o essential to rationality^25 o essential to science and its division of labor^26 o burden on the trustee^27 o a deciding factor in whether to use a neural network^28 o a dividing line between AI developers and AI users^29 o essential in sales^30 o essential in writing^31

etc. But where is the clear, widely-known way to think about it?

References

Adee, S. (2008). The hunt for the kill switch. IEEE Spectrum, 45(5), 34-39. May 2008. Primary source and search: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4505310 Retrieved 27th Feb. 2022. https://www.google.com/search?q=%22hunt+for+the+kill+switch%22+pdf

Bernays, E. (1923). Crystallizing Public Opinion. Boni and Liveright (Reprint Ig Publishing). ISBN: 978-1935439264. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1935439264 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1935439264 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011025346

Bernays, E. (1928). Propaganda. H. Liveright (Reprint by Ig Publishing). ISBN: 978-0970312594. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0970312594 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0970312594 https://lccn.loc.gov/2004016015

Bernays, E. (1952). Public Relations. University of Oklahoma Press. ISBN: 978-0806114576. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0806114576 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0806114576 https://lccn.loc.gov/52001707

Broughton, P. D. (2012). The Art of the Sale: Learning from the Masters About the Business of Life. Penguin. ISBN: 978-1594203329. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1594203329 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1594203329 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011040209

Chomsky, N. (1989). Necessary Illusions: Thought Control in Democratic Societies. South End Press. ISBN: 0896083667. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0896083667 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0896083667 https://lccn.loc.gov/89006074

Chomsky, N. (2017). Requiem for the American Dream: The 10 Principles of Concentration of Wealth & Power. Seven Stories Press. ISBN: 978-1609807368. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1609807368 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1609807368 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016054121

de Becker, G. (1997). The Gift of Fear: And Other Survival Signals That Protect Us from Violence. Dell / Random House. ISBN: 0440508835. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0440508835 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0440508835 https://lccn.loc.gov/96051051

Dulles, A. (2016). The Craft of Intelligence. Lyons Press / Rowman & Littlefield. First published 1963. This edition copyright Joan Buresch Talley, daughter of Dulles. ISBN: 978-1493018796. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1493018796 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1493018796 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016017105 Different editions available at: https://archive.org/search.php?query=The%20Craft%20of%20Intelligence

Erickson, J. (2008). Hacking: The Art of Exploitation. No Starch Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-1593271442. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1593271442 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1593271442 https://lccn.loc.gov/2007042910

Gopnik, A., Meltzoff, A. N., & Kuhl, P. K. (1999). The Scientist in the Crib: What Early Learning Tells Us About the Mind. Perennial / HarperCollins. ISBN: 0688159885. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0688159885 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0688159885 https://lccn.loc.gov/99024247

Grabo, C. M. (2002). Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning. Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. ISBN: 0965619567 https://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf Retrieved 7th Sep. 2020.

Hawley, K. (2012). Trust: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780199697342. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780199697342 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780199697342 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012406649

Herman, E. S., & Chomsky, N. (1988). Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media. Pantheon. ISBN: 0679720340. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0679720340 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0679720340 https://lccn.loc.gov/88042614

Kidder, T., & Todd, R. (2013). Good Prose. Random House Publishing Group, kindle edition ed. ISBN: 9780679604723. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780679604723 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780679604723 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012021165

Lippmann, W. (1920). Liberty and the News. Harcourt, Brace and Howe (Leopold Reprint). No ISBN. eBook and searches: https://books.google.com/books?id=Df-SzcLRcAIC Retrieved 24th Feb. 2022. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Liberty+and+the+News+Lippmann https://www.google.com/search?q=liberty+and+the+news+lippmann https://lccn.loc.gov/20004814

Oleson, P. C. (Ed.) (2016). AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence. Association of Former Intelligence Officers, 1st ed. Citations are of the pbk. edition, ISBN: 978-0997527308. PDF edition available at: https://www.afio.com/40_guide.htm Retrieved 10th Sep. 2020.

Peterson, M. (2017). An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge University Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 9781316606209. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781316606209 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781316606209 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016057387

Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Penguin Publishing Group. ISBN: 978-0143122012. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0143122012 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0143122012 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011015201

Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.

Russell, B. (1912). The Problems of Philosophy. Dover (Reprinted 1999). ISBN: 0486406741. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0486406741 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0486406741 https://lccn.loc.gov/98033214

Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Pearson, 4th ed. ISBN: 978-0134610993. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0134610993 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0134610993 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019047498

Sacks, O. (2012). Hallucinations. Vintage Books (Reprinted 2013). ISBN: 978-0307947437. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307947437 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307947437 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012002877

Salter, A. (2003). Predators. Basic Books. ISBN: 978-0465071732. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0465071739 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0465071739 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002015846

Schneier, B. (2003). Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World. Copernicus Books. ISBN: 0387026207. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0387026207 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0387026207 https://lccn.loc.gov/2003051488 Similar edition available at: https://archive.org/details/beyondfearthinki00schn_0

Schneier, B. (2015). Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World. W. W. Norton. ISBN: 9780393244816. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780393244816 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780393244816 https://lccn.loc.gov/2014048365

Shermer, M. (2005). Abducted! Imaginary traumas are as terrifying as the real thing. Scientific American. Feb. 2005. https://michaelshermer.com/sciam-columns/abducted/ Retrieved 25th Nov. 2020. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/abducted/ Retrieved 28th Feb. 2022.

Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296

Thompson, K. (1984). Reflections on trusting trust. Communications of the ACM, 27(8), 761-763. Aug. 1984. https://doi.org/10.1145/358198.358210 Also available at: https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf Retrieved 4th Dec. 2020.

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Russell (1912) p. 31 ff.

^3 https://www.google.com/search?q=mirrors+Rjukan

^4 Sacks (2012).

^5 Shermer (2005). See also Sacks (2012) p. 42 ff. on Shermer's case.

^6 Grabo (2002) p. 119 ff. See also Retraice (2020/09/07).

^7 See Lippmann (1920) e.g. pp. 37-38, where he talks about second, third and forth hand knowledge, the problem of seeing for oneself, and the unreliability of such methods.

^8 Bernays (1928) pp. 54-55 where trust is implied by his discussions of `authority' and `loyalty'; Bernays (1923) p. 191 on "the most valuable thing" being "faith and trust"; Bernays (1952) p. 112 on PR and suspicion of businessmen.

^9 Among many examples, see Herman & Chomsky (1988) p. xi, p. 332; Chomsky (1989) pp. 16-17; Chomsky (2017) pp. 124-125.

^10 Thompson (1984) on trusting statements, programs and people.

^11 Is this a hint, the word `deciding'? Are all trust problems really decision problems?

^12 Salter (2003) p. 103; Pinker (2011) p. 484.

^13 Erickson (2008) p. 1. The implication is this: If we trust a system that we don't fully understand we become vulnerable to events and actions by others that we cannot anticipate.

^14 Oleson (2016) p. 275 and Adee (2008).

^15 Oleson (2016) p. 231.

^16 Oleson (2016) p. 470.

^17 Oleson (2016) p. 404.

^18 Dulles (2016) pp. 143-144.

^19 Schneier (2003) pp. 62-63.

^20 Schneier (2015) pp. 181-183.

^21 Simler & Hanson (2018) p. 271.

^22 Simler & Hanson (2018) p. 271.

^23 de Becker (1997) p. 59.

^24 Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 81-83.

^25 Peterson (2017) p. 10 and pp. 266-267.

^26 Gopnik et al. (1999) p. 160.

^27 Hawley (2012) p. 14.

^28 Russell & Norvig (2020) pp. 711-712.

^29 Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 996 ff.

^30 Broughton (2012) p. 291 (index).

^31 Kidder & Todd (2013) location 129.

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience.  See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Re15: Trust and Sources

Retraice^1

On the neglected basis of all knowledge and belief.

Air date: Wednesday, 25th Nov. 2020, 1:30 PM Pacific/US.

Detection and reports

Perhaps the only difference between something you perceive directly and something somebody tells you is how much you trust it.

Instead of talking about `sources', we can talk about detection and reports. C.f. Russell on knowledge by acquaintance (detection) and knowledge by description (reports).^2

The mirrors of Rjukan, Norway

They don't get enough sunlight at that latitude and near those mountains, so they reflect sunlight into the town using mirrors.^3

If you believe this, it is because reports and trust have convinced you (unless you've been to Rjukan).

Fakes, tech and incentives

While new technologies (e.g. deep-faking) do make fake reports (images, audio, videos) more possible, only incentives can make fakes probable. But as technology gets better, the requisite level of faking-incentive goes down.

Do you trust everything you perceive?

Hallucinations can be profound or barely noticeable.^4 Michael Shermer thought he was abducted by aliens but later concluded he was just riding too much bike.^5 What changed was the trust--he went from trusting earlier detection to trusting later detection and reports from others.

Trust is a mess

There's no clear, widely-known way to think about trust and sources. Adding `detection and reports' doesn't help.

Recall Cynthia Grabo^6 on deception.

A hundred years ago, Walter Lippmann wrestled with this problem.^7 It was essentially the same problem back then that it is today. Edward Bernays also worked on it.^8 Noam Chomsky had lots to say about both of them.^9 See also Ken Thompson from the programming point of view.^10

Even if you have a good system for deciding trust problems^11 , an adversary who knows you're using that system will probably find weaknesses in it and cause you to mistrust. This gets dark.^12 And it's also what computer hacking is about.^13

The concept of trust is scattered throughout the security-related and other literatures, as:
o essential to military hardware^14 o catalyst of intelligence work^15 o prerequisite to espionage^16 o leading to a `deception paradox'^17 o the central problem of counterespionage^18 o most dangerous in the form of `insiders'^19 o the central problem of Internet security^20 o obviating the need for large-scale surveillance and enabling large-scale long-term cooperation^21 o gained by contracts, credit scores and references^22 o gained by deception^23 o gained by self-deception^24 o essential to rationality^25 o essential to science and its division of labor^26 o burden on the trustee^27 o a deciding factor in whether to use a neural network^28 o a dividing line between AI developers and AI users^29 o essential in sales^30 o essential in writing^31

etc. But where is the clear, widely-known way to think about it?

References

Adee, S. (2008). The hunt for the kill switch. IEEE Spectrum, 45(5), 34-39. May 2008.
Primary source and search:
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4505310 Retrieved 27th Feb. 2022.
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22hunt+for+the+kill+switch%22+pdf

Bernays, E. (1923). Crystallizing Public Opinion. Boni and Liveright (Reprint Ig Publishing). ISBN: 978-1935439264. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1935439264
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1935439264
https://lccn.loc.gov/2011025346

Bernays, E. (1928). Propaganda. H. Liveright (Reprint by Ig Publishing). ISBN: 978-0970312594. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0970312594
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0970312594
https://lccn.loc.gov/2004016015

Bernays, E. (1952). Public Relations. University of Oklahoma Press. ISBN: 978-0806114576. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0806114576
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0806114576
https://lccn.loc.gov/52001707

Broughton, P. D. (2012). The Art of the Sale: Learning from the Masters About the Business of Life. Penguin. ISBN: 978-1594203329. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1594203329
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1594203329
https://lccn.loc.gov/2011040209

Chomsky, N. (1989). Necessary Illusions: Thought Control in Democratic Societies. South End Press. ISBN: 0896083667. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0896083667
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0896083667
https://lccn.loc.gov/89006074

Chomsky, N. (2017). Requiem for the American Dream: The 10 Principles of Concentration of Wealth & Power. Seven Stories Press. ISBN: 978-1609807368. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1609807368
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1609807368
https://lccn.loc.gov/2016054121

de Becker, G. (1997). The Gift of Fear: And Other Survival Signals That Protect Us from Violence. Dell / Random House. ISBN: 0440508835. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0440508835
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0440508835
https://lccn.loc.gov/96051051

Dulles, A. (2016). The Craft of Intelligence. Lyons Press / Rowman & Littlefield. First published 1963. This edition copyright Joan Buresch Talley, daughter of Dulles. ISBN: 978-1493018796. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1493018796
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1493018796
https://lccn.loc.gov/2016017105
Different editions available at:
https://archive.org/search.php?query=The%20Craft%20of%20Intelligence

Erickson, J. (2008). Hacking: The Art of Exploitation. No Starch Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-1593271442. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1593271442
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1593271442
https://lccn.loc.gov/2007042910

Gopnik, A., Meltzoff, A. N., & Kuhl, P. K. (1999). The Scientist in the Crib: What Early Learning Tells Us About the Mind. Perennial / HarperCollins. ISBN: 0688159885. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0688159885
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0688159885
https://lccn.loc.gov/99024247

Grabo, C. M. (2002). Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning. Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. ISBN: 0965619567
https://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf Retrieved 7th Sep. 2020.

Hawley, K. (2012). Trust: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780199697342. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780199697342
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780199697342
https://lccn.loc.gov/2012406649

Herman, E. S., & Chomsky, N. (1988). Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media. Pantheon. ISBN: 0679720340. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0679720340
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0679720340
https://lccn.loc.gov/88042614

Kidder, T., & Todd, R. (2013). Good Prose. Random House Publishing Group, kindle edition ed. ISBN: 9780679604723. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780679604723
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780679604723
https://lccn.loc.gov/2012021165

Lippmann, W. (1920). Liberty and the News. Harcourt, Brace and Howe (Leopold Reprint). No ISBN. eBook and searches:
https://books.google.com/books?id=Df-SzcLRcAIC Retrieved 24th Feb. 2022.
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=Liberty+and+the+News+Lippmann
https://www.google.com/search?q=liberty+and+the+news+lippmann
https://lccn.loc.gov/20004814

Oleson, P. C. (Ed.) (2016). AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence. Association of Former Intelligence Officers, 1st ed. Citations are of the pbk. edition, ISBN: 978-0997527308. PDF edition available at:
https://www.afio.com/40_guide.htm Retrieved 10th Sep. 2020.

Peterson, M. (2017). An Introduction to Decision Theory. Cambridge University Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 9781316606209. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781316606209
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781316606209
https://lccn.loc.gov/2016057387

Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Penguin Publishing Group. ISBN: 978-0143122012. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0143122012
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0143122012
https://lccn.loc.gov/2011015201

Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020.

Russell, B. (1912). The Problems of Philosophy. Dover (Reprinted 1999). ISBN: 0486406741. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0486406741
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0486406741
https://lccn.loc.gov/98033214

Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Pearson, 4th ed. ISBN: 978-0134610993. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0134610993
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0134610993
https://lccn.loc.gov/2019047498

Sacks, O. (2012). Hallucinations. Vintage Books (Reprinted 2013). ISBN: 978-0307947437. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307947437
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307947437
https://lccn.loc.gov/2012002877

Salter, A. (2003). Predators. Basic Books. ISBN: 978-0465071732. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0465071739
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0465071739
https://lccn.loc.gov/2002015846

Schneier, B. (2003). Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World. Copernicus Books. ISBN: 0387026207. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0387026207
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0387026207
https://lccn.loc.gov/2003051488
Similar edition available at:
https://archive.org/details/beyondfearthinki00schn_0

Schneier, B. (2015). Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World. W. W. Norton. ISBN: 9780393244816. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780393244816
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780393244816
https://lccn.loc.gov/2014048365

Shermer, M. (2005). Abducted! Imaginary traumas are as terrifying as the real thing. Scientific American. Feb. 2005.
https://michaelshermer.com/sciam-columns/abducted/ Retrieved 25th Nov. 2020.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/abducted/ Retrieved 28th Feb. 2022.

Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296

Thompson, K. (1984). Reflections on trusting trust. Communications of the ACM, 27(8), 761-763. Aug. 1984.
https://doi.org/10.1145/358198.358210 Also available at:
https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~rdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf Retrieved 4th Dec. 2020.

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/retraice

^2 Russell (1912) p. 31 ff.

^3 https://www.google.com/search?q=mirrors+Rjukan

^4 Sacks (2012).

^5 Shermer (2005). See also Sacks (2012) p. 42 ff. on Shermer's case.

^6 Grabo (2002) p. 119 ff. See also Retraice (2020/09/07).

^7 See Lippmann (1920) e.g. pp. 37-38, where he talks about second, third and forth hand knowledge, the problem of seeing for oneself, and the unreliability of such methods.

^8 Bernays (1928) pp. 54-55 where trust is implied by his discussions of `authority' and `loyalty'; Bernays (1923) p. 191 on "the most valuable thing" being "faith and trust"; Bernays (1952) p. 112 on PR and suspicion of businessmen.

^9 Among many examples, see Herman & Chomsky (1988) p. xi, p. 332; Chomsky (1989) pp. 16-17; Chomsky (2017) pp. 124-125.

^10 Thompson (1984) on trusting statements, programs and people.

^11 Is this a hint, the word `deciding'? Are all trust problems really decision problems?

^12 Salter (2003) p. 103; Pinker (2011) p. 484.

^13 Erickson (2008) p. 1. The implication is this: If we trust a system that we don't fully understand we become vulnerable to events and actions by others that we cannot anticipate.

^14 Oleson (2016) p. 275 and Adee (2008).

^15 Oleson (2016) p. 231.

^16 Oleson (2016) p. 470.

^17 Oleson (2016) p. 404.

^18 Dulles (2016) pp. 143-144.

^19 Schneier (2003) pp. 62-63.

^20 Schneier (2015) pp. 181-183.

^21 Simler & Hanson (2018) p. 271.

^22 Simler & Hanson (2018) p. 271.

^23 de Becker (1997) p. 59.

^24 Simler & Hanson (2018) pp. 81-83.

^25 Peterson (2017) p. 10 and pp. 266-267.

^26 Gopnik et al. (1999) p. 160.

^27 Hawley (2012) p. 14.

^28 Russell & Norvig (2020) pp. 711-712.

^29 Russell & Norvig (2020) p. 996 ff.

^30 Broughton (2012) p. 291 (index).

^31 Kidder & Todd (2013) location 129.

 

(The below text version of the notes is for search purposes and convenience.  See the PDF version for proper formatting such as bold, italics, etc., and graphics where applicable. Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc.)

Ma15: Two Threats

Margin by Retraice^1

On some things that could end our business.

Air date: Wednesday, 25th Nov. 2020, 12:50 PM Pacific/US.

Iceberg basics

The part that you can see doesn't look dangerous; the part that you can't see could be. You and the iceberg both have parts that are above and below the water line.

Our two--my voice,
and the subscriber assumption

Things we see, somewhat in our forward path, that could destroy our business: 1. My voice: I've got a problem with it; if it gets worse, it will kill the business. 2. The subscriber assumption: Will they?

Thoughts on advertising

In a content business, when an audience declines to pay money, they're choosing to pay (only) with their attention. This should be thought of as a choice. If the business then makes money through advertising, it is (perhaps) equivalent to:
* selling the audience's attention, or
* licensing the content to other companies with permission to modify (by inserting adds) and republish it, or
* wholesaling content to retailers who mark it up by increasing the `attention' price (inserting ads).

For us, the issue is finding out, as soon as possible, whether people will subscribe. If they won't, we can pivot to advertising, and look for ways to do it without ruining our credibility.

The subscriber assumption(s)

How do we test the subscriber assumptions^2 , e.g.:
* that people will subscribe under some (yet unknown to us) circumstances;
* that they need a body of content first;
* that they're willing to go through sign-up;
* etc.?

It might be (for us) as simple as just pay-walling a segment. But is that a test? It's hard to know what the unit should be. When does a single test cycle start and end? If we get no subscribers after the first pay-wall, what does that really tell us? Anything? How about after the fifth? The five-hundredth?

Pivoting

Given the icebergs of our business, and our recent experience dabbling in code, software has got our attention.

Hard businesses and soft businesses

It's the difference between customers paying for needs and customers paying for wants. Retraice, in its current form, is a soft business.

References

Margin (2020/10/22). Ma4: Assumptions (A Wrestling Match). retraice.com.
https://www.retraice.com/segments/ma4 Retrieved 24th Oct. 2020.

Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Currency / Crown / Penguin Random House. ISBN: 978-0307887894. Searches:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0307887894
https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0307887894
https://lccn.loc.gov/2011012100

Footnotes

^1 https://www.retraice.com/margin

^2 On testing assumptions, see Ries (2011), e.g. p. 81 `Strategy Is Based On Assumptions'. See also Margin (2020/10/22).

For proper formatting (bold, italics, etc.) and graphics (where applicable) see the PDF version. Copyright: 2020 Retraice, Inc.

Re14: Omniscience in Three Domains

Retraice1

On answering the question 'What's going on out there?'

Air date: Friday, 13th Nov. 2020, 3 : 40 PM Pacific/US.

"What's going on out there"?

If you don't 'know what's going on out there', in the colloquial sense, you're limited to only knowing the things that physically reach you, the physical events that directly affect your body. Your senses cannot reach beyond their horizons.

But a definition of succeeding at answering the question 'What's going on out there?' should not be trivial. Some things 'going on out there' are more important than others, by some definition of 'important'.

Omniscience—physical, animate, mental

Physical omniscience: knowing what and where everything is, and all the rules of what can be and what can happen.2

Animate omniscience: knowing everything that life is doing, and can do.

Mental omniscience: knowing everything that minds are doing, and can do.

What are the people up to?

This is perhaps the most interesting and significant question. And sometimes (most times?) they don't even know.

Nonsense

A finite brain cannot approach any of the three omniscience states described.

At the other end of the scale, 'shooting from the hip' is also bad.

But the destination defines the direction; aiming for the ideal is correct, even if we know we can never get there.

Sources and trust

Accepting our limitations, we notice that cooperation with others changes what we can know. The problem is access—the mental is out of reach, while words and actions can be deceiving.

Lies happen; mistakes happen; reliability in one domain does not imply reliability in another; motivation affects belief.

References

Honderich, T. (Ed.) (2005). Oxford Companion to Philosophy. Oxford University Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 0199264791. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0199264791 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0199264791 https://lccn.loc.gov/2005275452

Weatherford, R. C. (2005). Determinism. (pp. 208–209). In Honderich (2005).

1https://www.retraice.com/retraice

2Cf. Weatherford (2005) p. 209 on the 'Laplacian demon': "After Newton propounded his laws of gravitation and mechanics, Laplace pointed out that if a powerful intellect (usually called Laplace's demon) possessed an understanding of Newton's laws, and had a description of the current position and momentum of each particle in the universe, and the requisite mathematical ability, that powerful intellect could predict and retrodict every event in the history of the universe."