October 10, 2025

October 10th, 2025 | Do stock dividends give you better returns? How will the US government shutdown affect you and the economy? Public debt strong, but private debt not so much,Tax Brackets & More

55 minutes

Do stock dividends give you better returns?

With the S&P 500 currently paying a dividend of only 1.1%, which is the lowest in about 25 years, people may wonder if they should even care about dividends. In 2024, dividends were only 36% of profits, which was 20 points below the average going back nearly 100 years. Looking at return figures, if you go back 65 years, reinvested dividends did account for roughly 85% of the S&P 500’s total return. With the market at all-time high valuations, investors should not give up on investing in companies that pay good dividends, but they also should do plenty of research to verify the dividend is strong and will last. And never ever buy a company just because it pays a dividend! When looking for companies that pay dividends, look for stocks with new or increasing dividends because since 1973 they returned on average 10.2% versus 6.8% for those companies that did not increase their dividend. Over the same timeframe, those stocks not paying dividends had a return of only 4.3%. Remember when looking at investing in dividend stocks to check that the company has a good amount of cash flow, a reasonable payout ratio to pay that dividend and a strong balance sheet that does not have excessive debt and a good amount of cash for liquidity.

How will the US government shutdown affect you and the economy?

Over the last 50 years, the government has shutdown 21 times with the longest being December 2018 when it lasted 34 days. The shutdown will affect mostly those consumers who are traveling with experts from the travel industry saying it will lose about one billion dollars a week. Think about all the national parks that will be closed and the frustrations at the airports will probably curtail travelers' enthusiasm for traveling. Even with all the negative headlines, stocks tend to do well during a government shutdown with the average three month return after the shutdown at 9.5% and one year later at 22.4%. I would not encourage people to think they will get a 22% return this time around because of the valuation on the stock market these days. Unfortunately, bonds don’t do as well with the three-month return being a -37% and a one-year return on bonds being a -10.7%. What this means is during a government shutdown generally long-term interest rates increase as bonds fall, and this would be detrimental to the housing market as we would then see mortgage rates increase if history repeats itself. On the shorter end of the yield curve, the Federal Reserve who sets short term interest rates will be handicapped because they will not be getting economic information such as the labor report and other government data to make their decision for interest rates cuts. It is possible if the shutdown is still ongoing at the end of October, the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates because of the lack of data.

The million-dollar question of how long it will last is a difficult one to answer as no one knows for sure but it appears since both sides are so far apart, they will not come to the negotiating table and until some negativity starts showing up in the economy there is not much pressure on the politicians. That means this shutdown could be one for the record books and could perhaps last a month or two!

Public debt looks strong, but private debt not so much

Public debt, which are bonds that trade on the public market, is looking rather strong based on the small yield margin between investment grade and speculative grade securities compared with the risk-free government debt. In September, $207 billion of corporate bonds were issued and that’s the fifth highest monthly amount on record. Year to date returns for those holding public corporate bonds stands between 7 to 8%. Private debt on the other hand is starting to have issues as companies such as Tricolor Holdings, which is a lender to individuals with low credit ratings, filed for chapter 7 bankruptcy in September. The debt holders may get something, but when a company files chapter 7 bankruptcy, the government receives their money first along with the attorneys and then what is left over if any, goes to the debt holders then equity holders. Also, last month an auto parts company called First Brands filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy, they had $6 billion of leveraged loans outstanding. This could be the beginning of an avalanche of defaults in private credit as I believe if the economy continues to slow down, these products will have some major problems. Hopefully you weren't sold anything that deals with private debt, equity or real estate by your broker.

Financial Planning: Updated Tax Brackets for 2026

For 2025, married couples filing jointly will see their standard deduction rise from $31,500 to $32,200 with an additional $1,650 per spouse for those age 65 or older and a new $6,000 deduction per spouse for households with adjusted gross income (AGI) under $150,000, bringing the total possible standard deduction to $47,500. The 12% federal tax bracket will now apply to taxable income up to $100,800 (up from $96,950), and the 0% capital gains and qualified dividend threshold will increase to $98,900 (from $96,700). When calculating tax liability, AGI minus the standard deduction equals taxable income. For retirees, this means the $150,000 AGI level is an especially important threshold to stay under. It unlocks the extra $6,000 standard deduction, keeps all ordinary income in the 10% and 12% brackets, and ensures that capital gains and dividend income remain tax-free. These inflation adjustments give married couples, especially retirees and middle-income earners, more room to keep their income in lower tax brackets and reduce their overall taxable income going into 2026.

Companies Discussed: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM), International Paper Company (IP) & Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

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By Brent & Chase Wilsey

1717 ratings