It's the first show on a DOUBLE HEADER day for On the Ledge!

Tim Hudak, from Counsel Public Affairs, Monique Smith at Global Public Affairs and Keith Leslie, Queen's Park Commentator at CH Television join DT to set the table for the Leaders' Debate set to go later this evening.

In this episode of On the Ledge - your DAILY Ontario politics podcast, we're joined by Daily Bread Food Bank CEO Neil Hetherington, Sheila Regehr from the Basic Income Network and pollster, John Wright.

It's clear the trade war with the US is going to have a serious effect on Canada's economy. That's going to mean lost businesses, lost jobs, lost productivity. But the costs go beyond employment numbers. It's likely we'll see another sharp increase in the number of working poor and more Canadians sliding into poverty. Would we have been better prepared for that pressure if governments had paid better attention to the lessons of the global pandemic? We said we'd "build back better". We didn't. Now what?

But we first, we chat with TIm Hudak, Partner at Counsel Public Affairs. He was in Washington DC when Canada's first ministers were in the US capital.

In this episode of On the Ledge - your Daily Ontario politics podcast:

The Grits appear to be making some gains at the expense of the New Democrats. But it's not just based on the polling. 

We're joined by John Tory, Amanda Galbraith, Keith Leslie and our resident pollster John Wright to take the pulse on the pulse of the campaign.

There is some thought that the federal Liberal leadership campaign is providing some lift for Bonnie Crombie's campaign - particularly in urban centres.

And how many 50 year old cultural references can come out of one week on the campaign trail?

Today's episode of On the Ledge - the DAILY EDITION features the insights of our C.A.S.T. (Comms and Strategy Team) Lindsay Broadhead, Brad Ross, Anne Marie Aikins and Bob Reid.

the team breaks down the latest developments in the Ontario election, including Doug Ford’s messaging strategy in Washington, Bonnie Crombie’s efforts to gain momentum, and the NDP’s struggle to keep up. 

Despite the best (?) efforts of the NDP and Liberals, tariffs are still the defining campaign issue.

And the latest polling/seat modelling projections suggest Doug Ford's PCs could win 100 seat, leaving the Liberals and New Democrats struggling just to achieve official party status in the legislature.

The team also explores strategies each leader might employ and how the narrative could shift when the leaders face off in the February 17th debate..

In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast - the DAILY EDITION:

We're joined by Laura Babcock, Gerard Kennedy and John Wright.

Items on the menu include:

• Justin Trudeau's call for FREE TRADE across Canada to galvanize our economy against future instabilty and threats from U.S. trade antagonists.
• Ford’s Campaign Shift: With tariffs off the table, the Premier pivots to affordability and transit, including promises on a Midtown GO Line and 401 Express Tunnel, despite lacking cost details​.
• Crombie’s Energized Messaging: The Liberal leader refocuses on Ford’s broken promises, delivering what some consider her most impactful campaign moment so far​.
• Polling Trends: Ford’s Conservatives hold a 16-point lead over the Liberals and a 20-point lead over the NDP, with opposition parties struggling for traction

Look at the latest polling after nine days of campaigning in Ontario and Douf Ford's Progressive Conservatives are flirting with the possibilty of winning 99 seats in the legislature. A party would need 63 seats to form a majority.

The same seat modelling, based on the latest polls, suggests the NDP would end up with 13 seats and the Liberals would win 9. It raises the possibility that neither opposition party would have official party status after the election. (Parties need a dozen seats to be acknowledged as an official party at Queen's Park)

Today's roundtable includes:

• Dave Trafford (Host)
• John Tory (Former Mayor of Toronto)
• Keith Leslie (Political Commentator, CHTV)
• Tim Hudak (Former PC Ontario Leader, Partner at Council Public Affairs)
• John Wright (Veteran Pollster)

In today's episode of On The Ledge, the panel tackles the latest political shifts following a temporary reprieve on tariffs, giving the Ontario election campaign a new trajectory. Doug Ford’s positioning as "Captain Canada" comes under scrutiny, while Bonnie Crombie and Marit Stiles fight for visibility amid the chaos of Trump-driven global headlines.

The panel also explores affordability concerns, food insecurity, and the challenges of making meaningful policy discussions break through the election noise.Key Takeaways

• Tariff Reprieve Shifts Campaign Focus: With a 30-day pause, the Ontario election must now pivot back to healthcare, affordability, and job security.
• Ford’s ‘Captain Canada’ Strategy: The Premier continues to dominate headlines, leveraging nationalistic sentiment and upcoming meetings in Washington.
• Liberal & NDP Struggles: Both opposition parties are struggling to cut through the overwhelming media coverage of Ford and Trump.
• Food Insecurity & Affordability: More than 1 in 10 Torontonians now rely on food banks, but the issue is being overshadowed in the campaign.
• Local Politics in the Spotlight: Bonnie Crombie faces strategic attacks in Brampton, while Marit Stiles hones in on housing and poverty in Parkdale.

Featured Speakers & Notable Quotes

• Neil Hetherington (Daily Bread Food Bank):
  “1 million Ontarians depend on food banks—why isn't this a top issue in the campaign?”
  [00:01:40]
• Amanda Galbraith (Oyster Group):
  “It is a very tough media environment right now. The opposition needs a big moment to break through.”
  [00:02:50]
• John Wright (Pollster):
  “There’s a two-thirds majority in Ontario that doesn’t want Ford, but the opposition hasn’t capitalized on it.”
  [00:45:10]
• Monique Smith (Global Public Affairs):
  “This election is about Ford securing another four years for his friends. He’s not negotiating with Trump—Trudeau is.”
  [00:19:40]

📢 Join the Conversation: DaveTrafford.com (Leave a talkback message!)

Host: Dave Trafford
Guests: Bob Richardson (Hammersmith Consulting), Anna Bailão (Former Deputy Mayor of Toronto), Sheila Regehr (Basic Income Canada Network)

In this episode:

The 30-day tariff reprieve and its impact on the Ontario election. With Premier Doug Ford’s lead solidifying in the polls, experts discuss how Bonnie Crombie and Marit Stiles can shift the narrative toward healthcare, affordability, and economic resilience.

The conversation also explores the need for interprovincial trade reform, the role of basic income in protecting vulnerable Canadians, and whether Ford’s “Captain Canada” persona can sustain momentum now that tariffs are no longer the central issue.

As campaign strategies evolve, the panel debates what’s next for Ontario’s political landscape and whether the upcoming leaders’ debate could change the game.

The OTL Daily crew breaks down the escalating trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. as tariffs loom large. Host Dave Trafford leads the discussion with our insiders Keith Leslie, Tim Hudak, and Monique Smith from Global Public Affairs.

They explore the economic and political fallout of Trump’s tariffs, Premier Doug Ford’s strategic response, and how this trade war plays into the Ontario election.

Key Takeaways:

• Monique Smith reflects on her time as Ontario’s representative in Washington, noting the chaotic unpredictability of Trump’s trade policies.
  • 🗣 "I don't think Americans are aware of what it's going to mean for them." ⏱ [00:04:00]

• Tim Hudak evaluates Trudeau’s response to the tariffs, calling it “solid,” while also acknowledging Ford’s politically savvy reaction.
  • 🗣 "You stand up and show that you're serious—if we caved in right away, Trump would simply ask for more." ⏱ [00:05:50]

• Keith Leslie highlights the strong public reaction, including Canadian businesses and restaurants removing U.S. products.
  • 🗣 "Taking a billion dollars of American product out of the LCBO? That will get Trump’s attention." ⏱ [00:08:30]

Where to Listen & Watch:
🔊 Podcast Apps: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio
📺 Watch on YouTube & Socials: Dave Trafford’s YouTube, LinkedIn, and Facebook
📢 Have your say! Share your thoughts at www.davetrafford.com via the talkback feature.

The White House has confirmed February 1st will be Tariff Day for Canada, Mexico and China with no indication as to how that will play out or what will be affected.

Add to that the mixed messaging that came out regarding the date of the tariffs!

Today's DAILY edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast includes pollster John Wright, former Toronto Deputy Mayor Ana Bailao and Anne Marie Aikins from Curious Public.