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Options Jive - December 8, 2025 - Weekly Market Summary: Quiet Week Before Fed Meeting as Bonds Get "Killed"


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Hosts Nick and Tony welcomed researcher Kai to discuss an exceptionally quiet week where markets barely moved and finding "something exciting was actually pretty hard." The S&P's 0.3% gain masked interesting rotation with Russell finally breaking to new highs after underperforming all year, benefiting from small-cap rate cut expectations. Treasury yields rose counter-intuitively ahead of the Fed meeting, with both hosts expressing long bond positions and hoping the "velocity of move is to the upside" despite being wrong recently. The Fed Watch tool showed dramatic volatility, whipsawing from 96% rate cut odds down to 56% before rebounding to current 89% - an unusually rapid reversal Kai couldn't recall seeing before. Quarter 3 earnings wrapped with final statistics maintaining 50-50 winner-loser split and near-zero returns across the full dataset, reinforcing that individual trades don't reflect overall basket performance. Upcoming week features key earnings including Broadcom (market leader all year), Costco, Lululemon, Oracle, and Adobe, with AutoZone deemed untradeable due to $1,200-wide stock bid-ask spread on only 62 shares traded pre-market.
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