Pakistonomy

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Khizar about the ongoing negotiations with the IMF, the path forward, and why consensus is needed to rescue the economy. We also talk about debt restructuring, why the last few months have destroyed Pakistan’s credibility, and the broader challenges confronting the economy even after an IMF program is put back on track.

Ali Khizar is a business journalist who frequently writes for Business Recorder.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

0:45 Why did the IMF deal did not happen?

24:00 Debt restructuring needs

34:30 Political crisis and economic stability

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the latest economic developments in Pakistan, focusing on the ongoing negotiations with the IMF. We also talk about why this time feels different, with not a whole lot of optimism for the economy and its future.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

0:55 IMF negotiations

21:35 Can the economy stabilize even with the IMF?

27:30 The role of the central bank

34:00 Why this crisis is different

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Farid Khwaja about the economic chaos in Pakistan and the collapse of the rupee. We also talk about why restructuring is necessary and how that process would work. Finally, we also touch on the startup community and takeaways from Paklaunch’s Unconference, which was recently held in Dubai.

Ali Farid Khwaja is Chairman of KTrade Securities and has over a decade of experience in the technology and financial sectors.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

2:30 Devaluation of the rupee and debt restructuring

15:30 Why has selective default happened?

24:30 Economic discourse and role of politics

31:10 Gravity of the situation

34:43 Takeaways from Paklaunch Unconference

40:19 Saving and investing for the long-term

44:30 Need for honesty

In this presentation, Uzair talks through a presentation on the economic crises in Pakistan, their causes, and the implication of not resolving the crisis through structural reforms.

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Naveed Sherwani about the global semiconductor industry, how geopolitics is affecting what is an extremely interconnected supply chain, and Pakistan’s potential in this space.

Dr. Naveed Sherwani is Chairman, President, and CEO of Rapid Silicon, which was launched in 2021. Rapid Silicon’s goal is to promote, adopt and implement open source tech to address the low- to mid-range FPGA market. Field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), or integrated circuits sold off-the-shelf.

He is a well-known semiconductor industry veteran with over 35 years of entrepreneurial, engineering, and management experience. He is widely recognized as an innovator and leader in the field of design automation of ASICs and microprocessors.

Dr. Sherwani has founded or co-founded over fifteen silicon companies including Intel

Microelectronics Services, Open-Silicon, and others. The companies collectively have a valuation of over $4.5B.

Reading Recommendations:

- Talent is overrated by Geoffrey Colvin

- Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance by Angela Duckworth

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 State of the global semiconductor ecosystem

13:50 US-China competition

30:00 Pakistan’s potential in this space

40:10 Ongoing developments in Pakistan’s ecosystem

54:35 Reading recommendations

You can read the semiconductor plan here - https://paklaunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Pakistan-National-Semiconductor-Plan-PNSP-1.pdf

In this episode, we continue our focus on Pakistan’s economic crisis and discuss the way out of it with Dr. Ahmed Pirzada. Dr. Ahmed Pirzada is an Assistant Professor at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy, UK, and the Chair of the independent Economic Advisory Group (EAG), Pakistan.

He specialises in macroeconomics with a focus in monetary policy, and the conversation dives a bit deeper into what he sees as the main drivers of the crisis, the way out of it, and why debt restructuring may be a decent option.

You should read the EAG’s latest press release on this at this link: https://eag.org.pk/eag-advises-debt-restructuring-and-warns-against-import-substitution-policies/

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:20 What caused this crisis?

19:37 What decisions exacerbated the crisis recently?

28:30 Distorted exchange rate

35:21 Debt restructuring need

45:30 Painful adjustments in the economy

51:11 Reading recommendations

Reading Recommendations:

- This time is different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

- Quantum Enigma by Bruce Rosenblum and Fred Kuttner

- The history of western philosophy by Bertrand Russell

In the first episode of 2023, Uzair talks to regular guest Ammar H. Khan about the economic situation in Pakistan and the outlook for 2023. We talked about why the Dar Peg is so dangerous, why people keep ignoring economic fundamentals to run Pakistan’s economy, and the path forward.

Reading Recommendations:

- The Prize by Daniel Yergin

- World for Sale by Javier Blas

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

0:50 Current economic situation

8:00 Why is the Dar Peg so dangerous?

20:30 Will decent policies be made in 2023?

23:28 Energy conservation plan of the PDM

28:00 Bright spots in the economy

37:10 Global themes to watch for

40:45 Reading recommendations

In this episode, Uzair talks to Shuja Nawaz about 1971 and the events leading up to the birth of Bangladesh. Shuja talks about the political, military, and economic crisis in what was then East Pakistan, the missed opportunities to politically settle the issue, and the disastrous military strategy deployed by Yahya and his cabal.

Shuja Nawaz, a native of Pakistan, was made the first director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council in January 2009. He is currently a distinguished fellow at the Center.

A political and strategic analyst, Mr. Nawaz writes for leading newspapers and websites and speaks on current topics before civic groups, at think tanks, and on radio and television worldwide.

He was a newscaster and news and current affairs producer for Pakistan Television from 1967 to 1972 and covered the western front of the 1971 war between Pakistan and India.

He is the author of The Battle for Pakistan: The Bitter US Friendship and a Tough Neighbourhood (Penguin Random House, 2019 and Rowman & Littlefield 2020), and Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford University Press 2008 and 2017).

Reading Recommendations:

The Transformation of War by Martin van Creveld

War from the Ground Up by Emile Simpson

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:20 Why is December 16 an important day?

6:20 Was 1971 the result of a political failure?

17:12 Bhutto, America, and Racism

36:50 Fallout of the surrender in Dhaka

44:16 Have we learnt anything from 1971?

48:27 What current crisis in Pakistan

57:38 Reading recommendations

In this episode, Uzair talks to Yousuf Farooq about his experience running a manufacturing business in Pakistan, why free markets are the need of the hour, and the effect of government interventions in creating distortions that ultimately harm companies like his.

Yousuf is the director of Elite Lighting, a company that is making products in Pakistan that are competitive in the market. He is also CEO of Oqaab Capital and has a wealth of experience in financial markets.

You can follow Yousuf on Twitter @YousufMFarooq

Reading Recommendations:

- Influence: Science and Practice by Robert Cialdini

- The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks

- The Dhandho Investor: The Low-Risk Value Method to High Returns by Mohnish Pabrai

Yousuf also recommends that folks watch this talk by Charlie Munger - https://youtu.be/zNxsAhc6sk8

In this episode, our regular guest Khurram Husain joins Uzair to talk about the state of Pakistan’s economy, the status of the IMF program, why the exchange rate is under pressure, and the fight between Dar and Miftah.

Khurram is a business and economy journalist and he shares his thoughts with Uzair on the outlook for the IMF program and why Pakistan’s economy is going to face more volatility in the coming weeks and months.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:10 Will Pakistan default?

5:30 Exchange rate issues

12:10 Afghanistan and dollar demand

20:10 Where did the IMF program go south?

36:40 Dar v. Miftah