Pakistonomy

In this episode, Uzair talks Khurram Husain about the recent agreement between Pakistan and the IMF, which has secured a 3-year $7 billion programme. We talked about what comes next for the economy and why the hard work is only just beginning.

In addition, we focused on Pakistan’s debt sustainability, with Khurram sharing his perspective on why restructuring debt is perhaps not the right path for the country at this point in time.

The articles we referred to in our conversation are linked below:

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1859741/shaky-stability

- https://www.dawn.com/news/1861209/and-audits-for-all

- https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/08/28/break-the-taboos-propping-up-unsustainable-debt-pleads-a-former-central-banker

- https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pakistan-needs-public-debt-restructuring-by-sanjay-kathuria-1-2024-09

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

0:45 Debt restructuring for Pakistan

13:16 IMF agreement and its implications

22:55 Petrol prices and relief

29:10 Politics and the current status quo

36:25 Conclusion

In this episode, Uzair talks to Salahuddin Ahmed about the ongoing moves to amend Pakistan’s constitution and its drivers. We focused on the role of the Supreme Court, why the government is pushing through a new ordinance to change the court’s procedures, and the impact of political polarization on the superior judiciary.

We also talked about why these proposed changes matter to ordinary citizens, and the outlook for Pakistan’s democracy.

Salahuddin Ahmed is a lawyer and former president of the Sindh High Court Bar Association. He recently wrote a must-read piece on these proposed amendments which you can read here - https://www.dawn.com/news/1859376/constitutional-package-judicial-overhaul-or-national-suicide

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

2:10 Ordinance issued by government

19:10 What does the government want to achieve?

31:00 Politics and judiciary

36:50 Patronage and the courts

42:05 Why should citizens care?

56:30 Paving the way for authoritarian rule

Pakistan’s parliament has historically been one of the weakest institutions in the country, but even by those standards, events that transpired over this past week have set a new low. Masked men entered parliament and took away numerous PTI legislators, who were subsequently arrested by the police. This has caused an uproar across the country, with the PTI leading the charge in terms of talking about the sustained and accelerating decimation of the rule of law and democracy in the country.

In this episode, Uzair talks to Salman Akram Raja about what happened in parliament and what comes next. Mr. Raja is Secretary General of the PTI and a senior supreme court lawyer. We also talked about coalition building and how the PTI intends to reach out to other groups who have been protesting against similar violations for years.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 What happened in parliament?

8:30 Ways to strengthen parliament

13:50 Situation in the judiciary

20:45 What is the PTI’s overall engagement strategy?

26:10 Gandapur, divisions, and coalition building

31:40 PTI’s outreach to PTM and others

In this episode, Uzair talks to Tabarak Rehman who is attempting to become the first person ever to run 1,400 kilometers across the length of Pakistan to raise awareness around the country’s education crisis. His goal is to raise $1 million for The Citizens Foundation, an incredible non-profit that operates nearly 2,000 schools in Pakistan.

Tabarak is a New York-based Turnaround & Restructuring Consultant at AlixPartners, who’s also super passionate about educating Pakistani students. Through his social media, he has guided hundreds of Pakistani students toward higher education in the U.S., even helping secure over a million dollars in student loans for at least 30 of them.

His academic journey started from his boarding high school, Cadet College Hasan Abdal after which he went to IBA Karachi for his undergrad and then Northeastern University in Boston, where he earned his Master's degree. He also holds a CFA Charter.

You can support Tabarak’s cause here - https://fundraise.tcfglobal.org/fundraiser/384593207740/tabarak-runs-across-pakistan-for-education

Follow Tabarak’s run here - https://www.instagram.com/tabarakruns/

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

3:20 Tabarak’s journey

14:45 Resources for getting an education in the US

20:30 Running 1,400 kilometers

26:30 Training regimen

32:00 How to help

38:10 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations:

- David and Goliath by Malcolm Gladwell

- The Richest Man in Babylon by George Clason

- Built to Last by James C. Collins and Jerry I. Porras

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Ilhan Niaz about where Pakistan stands today and the nature of the status quo ruling the country. We also talked about the mainstreaming of anti-establishment views and what that means for the politics in the country.

Finally, we also talked about modernization and the role of the Protestant Reformation in kick-starting this process in Europe, and whether Pakistan has the core ingredients to modernize.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 Independence Day 2024

4:15 Where did Pakistan go wrong?

14:50 Assessing the status quo today

21:00 Anti-establishment views in Punjab

29:15 Protestant Reformation and modernity

39:55 Can Pakistan modernize?

51:50 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations

- Great State – China and the World by Timothy Brook

- Asad Rahim’s essay in Dawn - https://www.dawn.com/news/1852072/the-two-partitions-polemics-purges-and-pakistans-first-opposition-party

In this episode, Uzair talks to Amb. Shamsher Mubin Chowdhury about what led to the collapse of the Hasina regime in Bangladesh and what comes next for the country. We focused on the reasons why younger citizens were angry with the government and reports of violence against Hindus over the last few days. We also discussed whether foreign agencies led to Hasina’s ouster.

Amb. Chowdhury is a war hero who took active part in the Bangladesh War of Liberation in 1971. For his bravery and contribution in the battlefield the Government of Bangladesh conferred upon him the gallantry award Bir Bikram. He has also served as a top diplomat for Bangladesh around the world, including as Ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States of America, with concurrent accreditation to Colombia, Brazil and Mexico from 2005 to 2007.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

2:20 What just happened?

17:40 Claims of foreign involvement

29:20 Secularism in Bangladesh

40:05 What comes next?

Balochistan’s city of Gwadar has been the center of protests for the last few days. Roads and highways leading into the city have been blocked and countless protestors have been arrested. Uzair talks to Dr. Mahvish Ahmad to figure out what is going on in the province and better understand the underlying reasons for the crisis in Balochistan.

Dr. Mahvish Ahmad is an Assistant Professor in Human Rights and Politics. Before joining LSE, she was an A.W. Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow at the Centre for Humanities Research, University of the Western Cape. She completed her PhD in Sociology at Cambridge. Earlier, Mahvish was a journalist covering military and insurgent violence in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region, and co-founded the bilingual Urdu/English magazine Tanqeed with Madiha Tahir. She is currently completing a book on state violence in Pakistan’s southern province of Balochistan.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

2:05 What’s going on in the province?

7:00 Multiple issues driving protests

13:30 Missing persons

19:05 Resource extraction

25:40 Historical drivers

32:55 Baloch protestors v. TLP

37:10 Islamabad politics and Balochistan

42:05 Evolution of Baloch society

51:05 Path forward

57:20 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations:

- https://loksujag.com/special-edition/bloch-women-long-march

- https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/items/dee93c5f-6f5e-43a8-bfd7-e79de8d2d35f

- https://caravanmagazine.in/reportage/home-front-changing-insurgency-balochistan

- https://www.scribd.com/document/554334646/The-Problem-of-Greater-Balochistan-PDFDrive

In this episode, Uzair talks to Zaigham Khan about the ongoing polycrisis in Pakistan and the path forward. We focused on the structural drivers of this conflict, in particular the breaking down of the post-Zia social contract that has sustained Pakistan’s political economy for decades. Zaigham argues that the PTI’s popularity is a symptom of the underlying breakdown of this social contract and that repression is unlikely to yield any sustainable stability in the country.

We also discussed why fundamental reforms of the political economy are needed to even sustain the various elite factions ruling the country today.

Zaigham Khan is an anthropologist and political analyst. You can follow him on X @zaighamkhan.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 What is causing the crisis?

8:50 PTI’s conversion to constitutionalism

18:30 Elite conflict in Pakistan

28:50 Can same page be sustained?

33:45 Why are the elite fighting within?

42:10 Breakdown of the status quo

46:50 Establishment view on repression

56:20 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations

- The Alif Laila and other mythological books

- Masnavi by Rumi

- Political Conflict in Pakistan by Dr. Mohammad Waseem

In this episode, Uzair talks to Faysal Itani about the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. We talked about the current state of play, the strategic goals for both sides, and the role of the United States, Iran, and other powers.

Faysal Itani is a Senior Director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. He is also an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University. Itani was born in and grew up in Beirut, Lebanon, and has lived and worked in several Middle East countries.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 Current state of play

21:10 Washington’s appetite for regional conflict

29:10 Role of US politics and elections

33:25 Key risks to watch

37:40 Role of China and Russia

41:40 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations:

- Warriors of God by Nicholas Blanford

- The Iron Wall by Avi Shlaim

- History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides

In this episode, Uzair talks to Zahid Hussain about the latest in Pakistan, where the Sharif government has announced it will seek to ban Imran Khan’s PTI. This is a dangerous move and Zahid helps us understand why this reflects the ruling regime’s weakness.

We also talked about internal politics within the Pakistan Army and why this confrontation is headed in a very dangerous direction for Pakistan.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 PTI ban reasons

14:05 Surveillance in Pakistan

19:20 Supreme Court v. Establishment

28:30 Internal politics of the army

37:00 What comes next?