In this episode, we dive deep into fiscal deficits in Pakistan and how they wreak economic havoc. In addition, we talk about the linkages between the fiscal deficit, higher interest rates, and external sector vulnerabilities.

Dr. Derek H. C. Chen joined the World Bank in 2000 where he has held a number of positions. Currently, he is the Senior Economist for Pakistan, based at the World Bank office in Islamabad. He oversees the macroeconomics and fiscal programs and leads the production of various economic reports at the Islamabad office, including the most recent Pakistan Federal Public Expenditure Review 2023.

You can read the Pakistan Federal Public Expenditure Review (PER) 2023 here - https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099041223153536828#/P17507702d44490bd0bb660b4b60037e930

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 Why are deficits so high?

8:50 Impact of these deficits

16:40 Links between economic instability and deficits

22:40 Government spending issues

26:10 Subsidies for the rich

32:20 Recommendations to solve this

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Ilhan Niaz about what is going on in Pakistan today and what we can learn from history to understand the present and what may come in the future. We also talked about why the political class is morally bankrupt, how the judiciary has ceded space, and why the military has been able to reassert itself in the country’s political economy.

Dr. Niaz is chair of the history department at the Quaid-e-Azam University and author of several books, including The State During the British Raj: Imperial Governance in South Asia, 1700-1947.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

0:55 Understanding the present

8:10 How the military draws power

16:26 The supreme court’s role today

27:15 Maintaining unity among civilians

32:15 Has Khan awakened the masses?

40:37 Scenarios for the future

46:05 The role of geopolitical rents

50:54 Is Shehbaz the worst PM in history?

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Ayyaz Malick about the ongoing crises in Pakistan and where he sees things going. Dr. Malick is a university lecturer, with research interests in Marxist and post-/anti-colonial theory.

He has recently written a must-read essay on the ongoing crisis which can be read at the link below.

https://jacobin.com/2023/05/imran-khan-arrest-pakistan-politics-crisis-military-alienation-ruling-class-oppression

Tweet on military lands for agriculture - https://twitter.com/Benazir_Shah/status/1660897023531585539?s=20

Previous discussion with Ayyaz - https://youtu.be/_Qv0GrxM0-Y

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:40 Framework for understanding the crises

17:20 Shifting alliances and the importance of May 9

33:00 Why are PTI leaders leaving so quickly?

55:23 Role of the PDM parties in this and future scenarios

1:19:25 Can a savior like Khan save Pakistan?

Reading Recommendations:

- Antonio Gramsci - On the Southern Question (for understanding hegemony and how ruling classes rule)

- Aijaz Ahmad - Lineages of the Present (for understanding Bonapartism, Bhuttoism, and fascism in South Asian politics)

- Gyorgy Lukacs, History and Class Consciousness (for understanding structural blindness of ruling classes i.e. why elites cannot reform themselves)

We continue our special series on the US-China strategic competition this week by looking at Australia’s evolving foreign policy with Professor Jane Golley.

Professor Jane Golley is an economist at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University (ANU). Jane is an ANU graduate (BEc, Hons, 1993). Jane's life-long interest in China began with a brief stint in the Asia Section of the Australian Commonwealth Treasury in 1993, before she left for the University of Oxford, where she wrote her Dphil thesis on 'The Dynamics of Chinese Regional Development: Market Nature, State Nurture'.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:50 The Australian view on China

11:08 Assessing Australia’s China policy

14:50 Technology and geoeconomics

23:15 Debt-trap diplomacy

31:30 Who wins this competition?

37:50 What should Global South countries do?

44:15 Key trends to watch for

48:20 Reading recommendations

Reading Recommendations:

- The China Choice by Hugh White

- Fear of Abandonment by Allan Gyngell

- No Enemies No Friends

- Six Faces of Globalization by Anthea Roberts

We continue our special series on the US-China strategic competition this week by looking at the deepening military ties between Pakistan and China with Sameer Lalwani.

Sameer Lalwani is a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He is also a non-resident senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

From 2015 to 2022, Dr. Lalwani was a senior fellow for Asia strategy and the director of the South Asia program at the Stimson Center. He has also spent time as an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and as a Stanton nuclear security postdoctoral fellow at the RAND Corporation.

Sameer recently published a report titled A Threshold Alliance: The China-Pakistan Military Relationship which is a must-read: https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/threshold-alliance-china-pakistan-military-relationship

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 What is a threshold alliance?

4:50 Pakistan’s procurement of Chinese weapons

10:25 Where is the Pakistan-China relationship going?

19:30 China’s influence in Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea

29:40 Important trends to monitor

37:37 Reading recommendations

Over the next few episodes, we are going to be focusing on the US-China rivalry and what it means for the world. In addition, we will try to bring to the forefront a diverse set of views on this rivalry and what key actors are concerned about and trying to do.

To start things off, I spoke to Andrew Small on China’s rise, what are the key things concerning countries in East Asia, and where he sees things going.

Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF's Indo-Pacific Program, which he established in 2006. His research focuses on U.S.–China relations, Europe–China relations, Chinese policy in South Asia, and broader developments in China's foreign and economic policy. He is the author of The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future, which was named one of the 2022 Financial Times Politics Books of the Year, and The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:50 China’s rise and key concerns

10:00 Military escalation in East Asia

21:37 Assessing Washington’s approach

32:10 Emerging markets, debt, and Chinese influence

40:20 What should South Asia pay attention to?

48:06 Reading recommendations

In this episode, we talk about the meat industry in Pakistan, key components of this sector, and why meat prices are going up in the country.

Suleman Anwar joined us to share his insights on these topics, what a roadmap for reforms should look like, and why price caps will not work. Suleman is a six-sigma trained business development & turnaround professional, successful at driving sustainable top-line growth, improving customer retention rates, and continuous bottom-line improvements.

After extensive corporate sector work for +14 years with international brands, in 2017 he started his entrepreneurial journey and co-founded three successful startups. He is also a member of SBN ExCom for Pakistan under the umbrella of the Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives and has been a member of the working group of the State Bank of Pakistan on special initiatives.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 Key components of the meat value chain

12:20 Synergies in agriculture sector

30:30 Cold storage and dairy supply chain

40:50 Role of incentives in policy

46:50 McDonalds in India

52:00 Contracts and property rights

57:28 Key reasons for meat inflation

1:05:20 Roadmap for change

1:13:15 Reading recommendations

Reading Recommendations:

- Char Admi by Amjad Saqib

- Getting Things Done by David Allen

- Diplomacy by Henry Kissinger

Readings for McDonalds in India:

- https://mcdonaldsblog.in/2016/10/20-years-the-potato-revolution/

- https://www.forbesindia.com/article/my-learnings/in-search-of-the-perfect-potato-mcdonalds-in-india/21052/1

- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/we-source-all-our-ingredients-locally-mcdonalds-india/articleshow/17480753.cms?from=mdr

In this episode, Uzair talks to Leila Serhan about Visa’s strategy, role, and mission for digitizing payments and promoting financial inclusion in Pakistan. We talk about how the company views Pakistan’s market, what it is doing to have a meaningful impact in the country, and ways in which digitization of payments can be accelerated in Pakistan.

Leila Serhan is the Group Country Manager and Senior Vice President for NALP. Leila brings more than two decades experience of leadership positions, including 20 years gained at Microsoft. Leila most recently led Microsoft’s public sector business across the Gulf region, and previously served as General Manager for its operations across North Africa, East Mediterranean, and Pakistan.

She previously held roles spanning country management, finance and marketing and has driven public and private sector digital transformation initiatives in finance, government and education.

Leila is a strong advocate for women’s empowerment, founding and currently serving as President for the Women in IT Association in Lebanon.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 Visa’s business and core competencies

8:50 Barriers to financial inclusion

18:40 Visa’s impact strategy in Pakistan

23:06 Digital public infrastructure

32:40 Reading recommendations

Reading recommendations:

- How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie

- Good Strategy Bad Strategy by Richard Rumelt

- A Gentleman In Moscow by Amor Towles

We talk about the role access to the internet can play in transforming Pakistan’s economy, promote inclusion, and really empower those who are on the periphery of Pakistan’s political economy.

The Universal Service Fund (USF) has been doing some phenomenal work on this topic, and Haaris Mahmood Chaudhry, who currently serves as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of USF, joins us to share what his organization is up to to promote access to the internet.

Haaris has over 20 years of global experience in the private and public sector, with a particular focus in telecoms and finance.

You should also follow USF on Twitter @USF_Pak.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:30 USF’s mandate and mission

10:20 Scaling internet infrastructure in Pakistan

15:30 Barriers to access in the ecosystem

22:30 Scaling pilot projects

28:10 Impact of access to internet

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Aaron L. Jackson about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the strains we are seeing in the US banking sector. We also talk about rising rates, why the Fed is being so aggressive, and the outlook for inflation and the US economy.

Aaron L. Jackson is the Senior Associate Dean of Business, and Professor of Economics at Bentley University, where he has also served as Chair of the Economics department.

Aaron’s academic interests in teaching and research focus on macroeconomics and monetary policy. He has publications in a number of journals including Applied Economics, the Journal of Macroeconomics, Economic Inquiry, Review of World Economics, and Macroeconomic Dynamics, among others.

Aaron has periodically provided expert commentary on monetary policy and the macroeconomy to various media both locally and nationally.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

2:00 The financial crisis and its implications

15:00 Inflation and asset prices

21:32 Inflationary pressures and higher rates

37:00 SVB’s collapse and bank runs

49:15 Conclusion