Iran’s hardline media are acknowledging Chinese reluctance to do business with Iran for fear of sanctions. The shift in tone, reflecting a more realistic view of international Realpolitik, was evident in outlets like Khorasan and the IRGC-affiliated Mowj News. 

The Iranian officials don't yet show signs of understanding how much their actions with Russia and against their own people have soured Western opinion and raised the political cost of the JCPOA to Western leaders. And as dire as Iran’s domestic and economic situations are, they don’t yet appear to be so dire as to cause Iran to reconsider its position. Until Western sentiment changes, or the Nezam’s ability to endure the pain of sanctions falters, the JCPOA looks to still be out of reach. Read more. 

Despite Beijing’s upbeat tone, the scaling back in Africa, and the failure to follow through on investment in Iran, is consistent with Xi’s so-called “dual-circulation” strategy. Basically, the idea is to balance China's foreign trade with developing national industry, with a focus on quality global investments.  This is good news for BRI nations who have their acts together, bad news for nations like Iran and those in Africa who don’t.  Read More

Top Note: Nezam officials and functionaries are eager to uphold the impression that things are returning to “normal” in the Islamic Republic of Iran, but the fallout from the protests and the Nezam’s heavy-handed response continues to reverberate and influence public statements. It even extends into the realm of foreign policy, where Iran has fewer achievements to celebrate with every passing day. 

Clever Ra’isi sought to secure his right flank and in June introduced a new “hijab and chastity” program, which, three months later provoked the most sustained period of antiregime unrest the Islamic Republic has experienced in forty years. Ra’isi’s so-called Neighborly, and Eastward Looking" policies made little progress. Read More

Most critics of the Islamic Republic's China policy continue to question Nezam's black-and-white international relations theory, which sees the West as evil and the East as friendly and aligned with Iran, but the latest developments with the “anti-Iran” statement from China have given critics at both ends of the political spectrum an opportunity to show their discontent with Beijing and the Nezam’s “soft” reaction. Read More. 

Iranian sociologists talk of a “paradigm shift” in Iranian society and an out-of-touch regime that has not just failed to meet the needs of the people but has implemented policies—like increased enforcement of hijab—that harm Iranians. The fearlessness of Iran’s Generation Z has been frequently remarked upon. Many young Iranians now feel they have little to lose and, seeing no future in the Islamic Republic, demand its replacement with a secular democracy. Read More. 

While the Nezam continues to wrestle with ways to rein in protests, some conservative religious leaders remain ardent in their stance demanding strict punishment for “rioters,” despite the Judiciary’s recent attempt to give the impression of showing “leniency” by releasing over 700 detainees, a number of whom participated in the protests.

The current struggle between the Iranian people and their clerical and military masters will leave its mark on the Islamic Republic. The outcome of the popular uprising over the regime’s brutal and capricious killing of Mahsa Amini is still uncertain. The succession to the aging Ali Khamenei is increasingly at hand.

In the last few weeks, China and the United States have repeatedly been at odds at the United Nations over issues related to Iran.