His Nibs is 84 and, in the past, has been treated for prostate cancer. With each passing year, the likelihood grows that he will shuffle off this mortal coil and, for the first time since 1989, the Iranian political establishment will need to select—or “discover” as the more hardline ones would have it—a new supreme leader.

https://www.persumedia.com/

With the collapse of the ceasefire and rising international opposition to Israeli operations in Gaza, the regional situation is changing rapidly, but China has remained consistent in its response and in its regional diplomatic efforts: focused on economics and diplomatic initiatives, causing consternation among a rising number of critics in Iran. 

Tehran may be frustrated by its Arab and Muslim partners’ disinterest in oil boycotts and breaking relations with Israel, but Iranian leaders know they have a much greater chance of gaining a hearing, and perhaps changing minds, if they stay inside the tent instead of sniping at the Arabs from outside.

They’re ba-ack. Still trying to resist the tide of social change in Iran, the Nezam has deployed vigilantes—hejabban (“hejab guardians”)—to public places to police women’s fashion.  For the past year since the Women, Life, Freedom protests that rocked Iran, Tehran has puzzled over how to enforce increasingly unpopular traditional notions of female modesty without reigniting civil unrest. More

The welcome, if temporary, silencing of the guns in Gaza this past week has given us a short respite from the dominance of foreign events in the Iranian news media and a chance to focus on the prosaic workings of the Iranian government. In particular, the administration of President Ebrahim Ra’isi is in the midst of putting together a budget for the coming Persian year and presenting it to the Majles.

After weeks of diplomatic effort, China was nowhere to be found in the negotiation of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Is this a failure on the part of Chinese diplomacy, or does it simply reflect Beijing's more limited objectives? Has Chinese diplomacy really been harmed in any way? This week with Guy Burton, expert on Middle East Policy and author of the book "China and Middle East Conflicts: Responding to War and Rivalry from the Cold War to the Present."

As Americans prepare to celebrate Thanksgiving this week, the announcement of a short truce in the war in Gaza, along with a partial exchange of hostages and prisoners, shone through the gloom as a rare bit of good news from this otherwise unhappy crisis. More on our website.

Recent comments from US officials have urged China to "temper" Iran's response to the Israeli siege of Gaza and support for Hamas in the wake of the October 7th attacks on Israel. But is China ready, willing, and able to do so? 

While keeping an eye on Iran’s efforts to extend its power and influence across the region, like the boiling, swelling outer layers of a red giant, remember that the fervor and ideas that have fueled the revolution are largely spent, and the Nezam’s core is shrinking. (link)

Observers too often become overawed by what the “mountain” might do, and discount how much sense it makes for it to bring forth a mouse.