One recent article in a respected journal darkly intoned that, thanks to the unstinting support of Russia and China, the Nezam is in a “triumphant” mood and “feeling more powerful and more secure than it ever has.” Really? What Iran are you looking at—because the one we see isn’t quite so full of itself and sanguine as such articles portray.

Last week’s news that Iran had joined BRICS and concluded several deals with China was welcome news for supporters of the Islamic Republic’s “Look East” policy, but new details - and old realities - suggest that any celebration may be premature.

Savoring the ignominious US retreat from Afghanistan two years ago, the newly inaugurated Iranian President Ebrahim Ra’isi declared that the American defeat there was “an opportunity to restore life, security and durable peace.” As Khamenei’s lieutenants treat the Taliban with kid gloves, do they perhaps reflect that in this case their cynical hedging may have turned an opportunity into a threat?

China has been doing well with deepening its ties with all of the countries in the region recently, but some of the other dividends expected from the Beijing-brokered Saudi-Iran agreement, like peace in Yemen, seem increasingly in doubt.

Iran’s agreement to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia suggests that it was driven by the political and security crisis of the Women, Life, Freedom protests last year. Facing the most acute challenge to the Nezam’s authority in forty years, Tehran sought to reduce external pressure on Iran and give the government the breathing room to suppress or coopt domestic opposition. Read more here.

The United States is moving forward with plans to officially designate China as a developed, rather than developing country, which could have implications for how China is treated under US law. China, in turn, strongly asserts its status as a member of the so-called "Global South" and the "Developing World." But as China looks more and more like a world power in regions like the Middle East, how long can this idea be maintained?

A surprisingly social constructivist sentiment from an arch-realist. Is this what we see happening in Iran?  Are Iran’s pundits and political elites finally reimagining Iran’s identity as compatible with working within the system as opposed to being rigidly and ideologically opposed to it?  Is their reimagining a reflection of official policy?

No doubt the prisoner swap means some money will be freed up for the use of the IRGC and other instruments of the regime’s power—Iran has always prioritized the security of the Nezam—but given the magnitude of Iran’s economic needs any such funds are unlikely to give Iran a decisive advantage or dangerous new capabilities it does not already possess. Read more here.

Iranian officials made an unusually frank admission about the lackluster state of Iran-China state-level economic cooperation this week, but the view from Beijing is much more positive. Our very own Bill in the China Shop helps make sense of the competing narratives - who is really to blame for the lack of Chinese investment in Iran?

Iranian observers have been looking a little enviously at Saudi Arabia’s recently concluded summit in Jeddah that brought together representatives from more than forty countries and international organizations to discuss the Ukraine war and Kyiv’s ten-point plan for peace. Read more here.