In this episode of Reading Beijing, Bill Figueroa (Bill in the China Shop) shares his latest thoughts and reflects on recent PersuMedia analysis: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRI, and BRICS; All Blind Eyes are on Xinjiang; Iran’s deepening economic dependence on China.

The risk for the Islamic Republic is that its success is a narrow one. As we have noted before, the Nezam is something of a “hedgehog” in that it focuses on one big thing—regime survival. At that it has succeeded, but is it an achievement upon which further triumphs may be built? Read more here.

Iran’s political system has become a marvelous machine for obscuring and diffusing responsibility. And when that doesn’t work, one can always resort to outright lies. The Nezam was Orwellian before such behavior became all the vogue. Read more here. <--

It is nonetheless interesting that Iran has thrown a bigger fit over the Russian statement than they did over the Chinese statement last year. In part that may be due to the sting of a second “betrayal” by a “strategic partner,” and in part, perhaps, because of Russia’s checkered track record in Iran. But Iranian officials can be tougher on Russia than on China because they know that Russia needs them almost as much as they need Iran. Read more here <--

As the year progresses, Iran’s political players increasingly are likely to factor into their decisions how a given action or event may affect the succession to Khamenei, because the outcome of the succession may strongly influence their own political fortunes. Buckle up—it’s likely to be a bumpy flight. Read more here <--

Two issues explored in the PersuMedia Daily Summary this week illuminate the extent of the Islamic Republic’s failure, and of the Nezam’s moral bankruptcy. Read more here <--

Congruent worldviews, paranoia, and shared interests may be the attraction that brought together the Islamic Republic and Putin’s mafia state, but necessity is the cement binding them to one another. Read more here.

My mother didn’t raise a son dopey enough to predict that renewed contacts between Iran and the United States will succeed in putting brakes on Iran’s nuclear program or birth a détente that reduces Iran’s provocative behavior in the Levant or its military assistance to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. But the fact that Iran is even willing to entertain the idea of some sort of interim nuclear agreement, which it had rejected publicly last year, represents movement on its part. Read more here <<--

The idea of decentralizing government and the economy is hardly new in Iran; one can find proposals going back to the Constitutional Revolution early in the 20th Century. The experience of the protests last fall may have given new impetus to the idea of decentralization. The relatively heavy fighting the security forces had to engage in to suppress the protests in Kurdish-majority areas and Sunni-majority Sistan and Baluchestan, in particular, may have focused minds in the IRGC and among the less dogmatic principlist politicians. Read more here <<--

“There is still fire beneath the ashes” is a phrase one frequently hears to describe Iranians’ continued anger and desire for change despite the fragile public calm that replaced last fall's protests.  It is a reminder that surface appearances may be misleading and that a demand for change may reignite on short notice.  Although the Nezam was quick to declare victory over “the enemies’” latest effort to overthrow the Islamic Republic, it is likely that many in the ruling establishment in Iran know better. Read more here <<--