Pitch The PM

Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive.

The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects.

🔍 What You’ll Learn:

• Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearish
• How to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and rising
• Why Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energy
• How mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve)
• The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 years
• Why energy security is now a structural demand driver
• How the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delays
• The coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas prices
• Why AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gas
• How electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stack
• Priyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Doug O’Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, about the explosive demand for AI infrastructure and the market reaction to Cerebras’ IPO. Doug O breaks down Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip architecture, its advantages in ultra-fast inference, and the limitations caused by memory scaling constraints. The discussion examines how NVIDIA continues to dominate large-scale AI workloads while specialized alternatives carve out niche roles in the broader compute ecosystem. They also explore the rise of agentic AI workflows, the growing economics of tokens and inference demand, and why frontier AI models are reshaping software development, legal work, and enterprise productivity. Doug O shares insights into how SemiAnalysis is using AI internally, why compute demand continues accelerating, and what the next wave of AI IPOs could mean for investors and the semiconductor industry.

Tickers: #CBRS, #NVDA, #CRWV

_____________________________________________________________

[00:00:00] Doug O’Laughlin compares Cerebras’ inference speed advantage to an F1 car versus NVIDIA as a bus.

[00:00:20] Discussion of agentic AI workflows driving a major increase in compute demand.

[00:00:31] Introduction to the episode and the focus on Cerebras’ technology and IPO.

[00:01:36] Why Cerebras’ niche technology emerged during a historic compute shortage.

[00:02:47] Breakdown of Cerebras’ SRAM-based architecture and the original technology bet.

[00:03:55] Explanation of SRAM scaling limitations and memory density constraints.

[00:05:26] Whether Cerebras can evolve beyond its current inference niche.

[00:05:53] Emerging trends in disaggregated inference and hybrid AI architectures.

[00:08:46] Why Cerebras can outperform NVIDIA in specific low-latency inference use cases.

[00:09:10] The tradeoff between single-user speed and large-scale throughput.

[00:13:18] Discussion of small language models versus frontier AI models.

[00:13:45] Why Doug believes best-of-breed AI models continue to win in the market.

[00:17:18] Legal industry productivity gains and concerns around shared AI training data.

[00:18:07] How AI dramatically lowers the cost of accessing professional expertise.

[00:19:11] Sponsor discussion and transition into Cerebras’ stock performance.

[00:21:01] Doug’s perspective on the broader AI IPO environment and investor demand.

[00:24:59] Supply and demand dynamics for AI-related equities and semiconductor exposure.

[00:25:54] Comparison between equity enthusiasm and private credit caution in AI infrastructure.

[00:26:58] Why GPU pricing increases indicate overwhelming AI compute demand.

[00:28:30] Agentic AI workflows and cloud coding as the major inflection point for compute usage.

[00:28:38] SemiAnalysis spending over $10,000 per week on APIs to accelerate productivity.

[00:29:56] How AI tools are changing hiring needs and software engineering capabilities.

[00:30:18] Examples of collapsing information work timelines through AI automation.

[00:31:39] Disclosure discussion and SemiAnalysis’ relationships with leading AI companies.

[00:32:09] Doug O explains SemiAnalysis’ approach to independent research and updating priors.

[00:33:07] Doug O’Laughlin shares his background working on the buy side at Blue Capital.

[00:34:10] Future plans for SemiAnalysis and the rise of “tokenomics” research.

Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Doug O’Laughlin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/ 

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In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Chris Murphy about his pre-IPO investment strategy and why $CBRS is his largest investment. Chris previously spent 17 years scaling a multi billion fund and is now focused on his pre-IPO PA (personal account) investment strategy.

Chris has dug-in deep, hitting the road and reading heaps of expert call transcripts from Alpha Sense and Third Bridge. He believes inference speed will become one of the most valuable advantages in the race to AGI (artificial general intelligence). The conversation examines the advantages of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design, the growing importance of fast inference for agentic AI workflows and the price/cost trade-off. OpenAI was the first mover, securing initial capacity and options. AWS has a term sheet for capacity. The chip market is evolving and Doug & Chris debate the implications for NVIDIA, Google and Amazon.

Tickers: $CBRS, $NVDA, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META

[00:00:00] Chris Murphy explains why AI inference speed will become a key competitive advantage.
[00:00:20] Doug Garber introduces Chris Murphy and discusses Cerebras’ IPO and price discovery.
[00:00:57] Chris Murphy shares his background in public and private market investing.
[00:03:44] Chris outlines his framework for evaluating pre-IPO investments.
[00:04:31] Why Chris believed inference would become the AI “money maker.”
[00:05:08] Chris explains how Cerebras removes bottlenecks in agentic AI workflows.
[00:06:07] Discussion on token economics, inference speed, and use case advantages.
[00:08:28] Cerebras’ position in fast inference versus Groq and NVIDIA.
[00:09:30] Breakdown of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design and routing fabric.
[00:11:48] Chris discusses the research behind his Cerebras investment thesis.
[00:12:35] Expert network transcripts, proprietary calls, and diligence methods.
[00:13:14] Chris walks through his revenue framework for OpenAI, AWS, and others.
[00:15:12] Discussion on customer concentration risk and OpenAI exposure.
[00:15:53] Why Amazon could benefit from combining Trainium with Cerebras chips.
[00:17:15] Competitive positioning versus Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs.
[00:18:39] Why inference is expected to outgrow training workloads.
[00:20:33] Chris explains his OpenAI revenue assumptions through 2033.
[00:23:48] How AWS and Anthropic fit into the broader Cerebras opportunity.
[00:26:24] Chris discusses Cerebras as an “arms dealer” in the AGI race.
[00:29:49] Feedback from engineers and users testing Cerebras chips.
[00:32:59] How AI systems route workloads across chips and inference models.
[00:34:54] Chris explains assumptions around Cerebras’ AWS inference share.
[00:36:35] Discussion on pricing, leasing models, and AWS exclusivity.
[00:39:49] Breakdown of G42, MBZUAI, and other customer relationships.
[00:42:55] Chris explains why the long-term revenue opportunity makes investors uncomfortable.
[00:45:38] Discussion on customer warrants and partnerships with OpenAI and AWS.
[00:49:25] Speculation around potential relationships with Meta and Google.
[00:50:16] Gross margin expectations, scalability, and long-term profitability.
[00:52:43] Doug Garber summarizes execution risks and the AI infrastructure landscape.
[00:55:19] Chris shares his long-term outlook on Cerebras and position sizing.
[00:59:16] Final thoughts on AI enthusiasm, IPO risks, and investing discipline.

Links:

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Chris Murphy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismurphyhq

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclosure: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Priyal Maniar, Global Energy Investor at T. Rowe Price | Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager of Natural Resources ETF (TURF) to discuss the path that led her to one of the most coveted firms on the street.

Priyal walks through her journey from BlackRock to T.Rowe, how an early passion for equity research and mentorship shaped her investing lens. She talks about T. Rowe's collaboratiove Analyst & PM invstment culture and what it actually takes to stand out at one of the top  investmet houses in the world.

This episode is all about Priyal's journey and investment process — how great stock pickers develop repeatable frameworks, build trust with colleagues and turn research into real capital allocation.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — where we dive deep into the energy cycle and TURF’s big Oil Sands bet… 

What you'll learn:

• How Priyal built her foundation through value-focused investing
• Inside T. Rowe’s intense interview process (30+ interviews, stock pitches)
• The traits that matter: curiosity, deep work, and flexible conviction
• How the $100B+ analyst-run fund works in practice
• How analysts build a track record before managing capital
• How ideas actually spread across a multi-trillion platform
• Why collaboration starts before the pitch
• The importance of field research and PM alignment
• How to build mindshare in under-owned sectors like energy
• Why process > being right once

Timestamps

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Priyal’s Background: India → Early Market Exposure

02:00 – Breaking In: BlackRock → Brandywine & Value Investing Roots

03:15 – Reaching Back Out to T. Rowe Price & Interview Process

04:30 – What T. Rowe Looks For: Curiosity, Deep Research, Fit

05:30 – Role Today: Coverage & Analyst Responsibilities

06:30 – Inside the $100B+ Analyst-Run Research Fund

07:30 – TURF ETF & Expanding Access

08:15 – How Ideas Get Shared Across the Platform

09:15 – Reports, Meetings & “Walking the Floor” Culture

10:15 – PM Pushback & Real-Time Collaboration

11:15 – Field Research & Building Buy-In Early

12:15 – Gaining Mindshare as an Energy Analyst

13:15 – Process > Calls: Building Trust Over Time

Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.

https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

In this episode, Doug Garber joins The Investment Memo to break down how hedge fund investors navigate macro volatility, manage risk inside low vol pod structures and stay focused on generating alpha.Doug shares how portfolio managers think during “risk-off” environments, why macro should not be your core thesis, and how strategies evolve inside multi-manager platforms.The conversation also dives into how he managed a portfolio as a PM, short selling dynamics, and the structural realities of hedge fund risk frameworks.🔑 TakeawaysRisk management over conviction during macro volatilityMacro matters—but shouldn’t be the core part of your thesisHigh short interest stocks work over time—but can be painful during unwindsThe best portfolios aim to neutralize what they can’t predict⏱️ Chapters[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to Hedge Fund PM[04:39] Navigating Macro Regime Shifts[06:05] Pod Shop Dynamics & Talent Retention[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental L/S Investing[12:33] War, Oil & Macro Uncertainty[15:00] Energy Outlook & Implications[18:52] Hedging & Risk Management📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

Ep. 29: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM Invests in Equities

In this episode, Doug joins Hyun Hong of The Investment Memo to break down how a buy-side investor is navigating today’s market backdrop.

Doug shares how he thinks about building a variant view, managing risk in uncertain macro environments, and what’s actually driving the current conversation around oil, war, and recession risk.

The conversation also dives into the evolving hedge fund landscape — from pod shop fatigue and talent migration to how analysts and PMs are adapting their process in a world increasingly dominated by macro volatility.

Chapters:

[00:00] Intro

[01:05] Career Path to a Hedge Fund PM

[04:39] What is your Variant View

[06:05] Pod shop Exhaustion? Talent retention & exodus

[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs

[07:15] Fundamental Equities L/S Analyst

[12:33] War & Oil & Recession

[15:00] oil here for higher & longer? what then?

[18:52] So how do you hedge?

To be continued in Part 2…

📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.

https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

💡 Presented by AlphaSense

Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

This episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

In this episode, Doug Garber — former PM at Citadel and Millennium and founder of Pitch The PM — joins Hyun Hong of The Investment Memo to break down how a buy-side investor is navigating today’s market backdrop.Doug shares how he thinks about building a variant view, managing risk in uncertain macro environments, and what’s actually driving the current conversation around oil, war, and recession risk.

The conversation also dives into the evolving hedge fund landscape — from pod shop fatigue and talent migration to how analysts and PMs are adapting their process in a world increasingly dominated by macro volatility.

00:00 Intro

01:05 Career Path to a Hedge Fund PM

04:39 What is your Variant View

06:05 Pod shop Exhaustion? Talent retention & exodus

07:01 Hedge Fund SMAs

07:15 Fundamental Equities L/S Analyst

12:33 War & Oil & Recession

15:00 oil here for higher & longer? what then?

18:52 So how do you hedge?

Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.

https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

This episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer. Coming Soon: $LOKV → $TMS

Doug Garber chats with Michael Brown (Teamshares, TMS) and Rick Hendrix (Live Oak, LOKV) about taking a programmatic acquirer of small businesses public via a DSPAC — the sourcing tech, capital plan, and why this opens a new asset class for investors. 🚀

In this episode:

• How Teamshares buys retirement-sale SMEs, systemizes sourcing (70k leads → <1% close) and runs them as audited subsidiaries. 🧩

• The advantages of being public include a lower cost of capital and the ability to leverage the infrastructure the team has built to acquire and run SME’s efficiently. 

• The large runway to continue to acquire companies at around 15-20% ROE’s.

• The company could be FCF positive in the near future and be self-funding. 

• T. Rowe Price has already anchored the PIPE.

Subscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for weekly market insights, episode follow-ups, and our job board!https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://PitchThePM.com

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Disclaimer: Educational only — not investment advice.

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Sean Emory, founder of Avory & Co., an investment firm focused on high-conviction, fundamentals-driven investing. Sean recently launched the Avory ETF ($AVRY), bringing his firm’s research-driven stock-picking approach to public investors.Sean outlines his “6 M” investment process that has allowed him to compound at nearly 20% for the last decade with low turnover for FO’s, UHNW, and RIA’s.Doug and Sean discuss why XYZ is one his largest weightings. • Cash App growth and monetization trends• Square’s re-acceleration in merchant volumes• The reality behind the software job cuts, the impact of AI vs over hiring• The role of credit products like Cash App Borrow• Competitive dynamics in fintech and digital payments• Risks, including macro conditions and credit cycles📩 Want to know if Doug bought the pitch?Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y?si=cb521c1e758246a1Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

$HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant View

• Cocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.
• Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.
• EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.
• Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.

• If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.

💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer