Pitch The PM

Opening the Strait of Hormuz with Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners | Pitch The PMThe Strait of Hormuz is closed. Twenty million barrels of oil per day flow through that narrow channel. When it shuts down, the world feels it. The duration of the closure is the key to accessing the global ripple effects. Doug Garber sits down with Kevin Book, one of Washington's most respected energy policy analysts, for a real-time breakdown of the crisis. Kevin leads Clearview Energy Partners, an independent research firm that has spent decades writing economic and policy research on energy for institutional investors and corporate leaders. He has seen a lot. He says this is different.They cover what it actually takes to reopen the strait, what Iran is doing to keep it closed, and what the US military can and cannot do. They get into the nuclear question, the LNG shock, China's deep energy vulnerability, and what happens to sanctioned barrel flows from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. They talk about strategic reserves, risk premiums, production responses, and what history tells us about how these crises end.This is not a surface level take. Kevin brings the data, the geopolitical context, and tDoug brings the hard questions the market is asking right now.Guest: Kevin Book, Managing Partner, Clearview Energy Partners Host: Doug Garber, Pitch The PM, former Millennium Senior PM and top Citadel AnalystChapters: [00:00] Intro [01:18] Reopening the Strait of Hormuz [03:09] Naval escort precedent [04:11] Shipping risk and insurance [06:34] Iran’s remaining threat capacity [08:15] Iran nuclear facilities and uncertainty [12:06] Why oil spiked [17:20] Oil and LNG supply at risk [21:56] SPRs and alternate routes [22:26] Can higher prices restart US production? [24:15] China’s energy vulnerability [34:02] What this means for Taiwan [36:49] The endgame in Iran [45:38] What investors are asking nowSubscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for Buy-Side insights from an ex Sr. PM Millennium/Citadel Analyst, investment process frameworks, job openings, and if Doug did bought or sold the episodes pitch: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on SpotifyListen on Apple Podcasts💡 Presented by AlphaSense. Get a free trial!This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures.

Doug Garber sits down with Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) and Xavier Smith (AlphaSense) to break down what it would actually take to “unlock Venezuela” — and why the biggest oil-market impact may be second-order (US capex behavior), not an overnight flood of barrels.

Despite the headline excitement around a post-Maduro reset and a new hydrocarbons law, Sankey argues Venezuela remains a long-road “investability” story: rule of law, arbitration, security, and legacy claims (Exxon/Conoco) still dominate the timeline. Near-term gains are most credible through Chevron’s existing footprint, with heavier barrels reshaping Gulf Coast refining dynamics and Canadian heavy differentials at the margin.

📉 Bias / Framework: Sankey views the near-term upside as incremental barrels + changing incentives, not a rush of IOC capital. Public E&Ps remain anchored to capex discipline and uncertainty around future supply.

💥 Catalysts / Watch Items:Chevron execution + export/logistics normalizationEvidence of real rule-of-law improvements (arbitration credibility, contract sanctity)Resolution (or escalation) of legacy claims and payment/legal structuresNew entrants into the Venezuelan oil business are now allowed.Heavier-barrel flows shifting refinery economics and heavy differentials

💰 Setup / Market Mechanics:Near-term: modest Venezuela adds can still matter at the margin particularly for refiners who consume this feedstock.Medium-term: Field level security and certainty of payment will dictate the ultimate upside

🎯 Bottom LineThis is about controlling the oil in the Western Hemisphere over the long-term. Don't expect a material production ramp so quickly other than what Chevron can ramp on with their in country resources. ⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Welcome + format[01:32] 2026/2027 Venezuela production outlook + Chevron’s role[05:13] The “US reinvestment” externality[14:40] Who invests (majors vs privates) + getting paid[20:06] Why $70 Brent isn’t a simple green light[24:30] European “green shoots,” diluent constraints, and heavy oil realities[26:30] Iraq lessons and a Venezuela “playbook”[31:16] Big picture geopolitics: US/China/Russia/Iran[36:30] Guyana vs Venezuela: geology vs governance[41:40] Economics of the “prize” (heavy barrels, decline, emissions)[47:30] Nat gas + Trinidad LNG + infrastructure constraints[51:40] Q&A: Canada oil sands + Iran blockade risk[56:10] Wrap + AlphaSense CTA📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y💡 Webinar by AlphaSense — the AI intelligence platform for finding and synthesizing signal across equity research, filings, transcripts, and expert calls. Sign up for a free trial: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

Doug Garber sits down with Sean Kumar (Humbucker Capital) to break down why Disney may be a value trap in disguise.

Despite Disney’s evergreen IP and brand cachet, Kumar believes the street is mispricing the economics of DTC, overestimating ARPU growth, and underestimating park fatigue. He walks through his short framework grounded in bottoms-up segment analysis and consensus vs. internal modeling. 

📉 Bearish Bias: Kumar has followed $DIS on the sell side and the buy side. While he respects the brand, he sees it as a value trap with street expectations too high for 2026.

📊 Variant View:

• Street is overly bullish on DTC margin ramp

• Parks traffic has peaked, and affordability is challenged. 

• Sell-side still 80% Buy despite 5 years of underperformance

💥 Catalysts:

• Miss on streaming margins

• Weak park comps

• Analyst downgrades

• 2026 CEO transition risk

💰 Valuation Setup:Downside to $90 (10–15x $7 EPS) vs. $130 bull case. Risk/reward skewed negatively.

🎯 Street Is Missing: What’s priced in vs. what’s achievable in a post-linear media world.

⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Humbucker Origin[06:00] Bias on $DIS[14:00] Iger’s Leadership[20:00] Streaming Unit Economics[27:00] Parks Plateau[34:00] Street Models vs. Reality[46:00] Catalysts & Counterpoints

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC may be on the verge of a growth re-rate if Colombia flips right in May.

🔍 Checklist Angles:Mispricing: Names like $GPRK & $PXT trade like melting ice cubes — priced for no permits, no growth, and political paralysis.

Catalyst: Colombia’s May election could end Petro’s anti-fossil policies and reignite fracking + exploration.

Variant View: Regime risk is priced in, but upside from production normalization is not. Names could re-rate under a Colombian regime change.

On the Ground Evidence: Danny met directly with field ops + engineers during a recent month long field research trip.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access🧭

CHAPTERS

[00:00] – Intro & Danny’s Background Dual citizen, former PM, born in Caracas, trained on GS trading desk. Why he fled Venezuela under Chavez and what he sees now on the ground.

[06:55] – Venezuela Today: A Collapsed State GDP -80%, oil down 90%, 8M+ people fled. Why Maduro’s fall is symbolic — and why Diosdado Cabello & Padrino López still hold the real power.

[08:39] – What the U.S. Must Do Next Venezuela remains uninvestable. Chevron is the only major still there. Exxon & Total want no part until full government reset and seized asset compensation.

[14:49] – Chevron’s Underappreciated Edge Operating at low utilization — could boost production 2x without new capex. What’s holding it back? Sanctions, diluent imports, and deal optics.

[17:00] – Who Benefits From Venezuela Reopening? Chevron, Valero, Schlumberger? Yes — but moves may be priced in. Danny walks through which tickers are most levered to LatAm oil upside.

[21:44] – Colombia Is the Lateral Trade Petro’s anti-oil regime is ending. May election likely flips government to pro-business. Colombia could be the real winner from Venezuela chaos.

[24:21] – Field Research: Colombian Oil Stocks Why $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC are the better growth bet. Danny met directly with engineers and ops teams to verify asset quality and roadmap.

[27:27] – Catalysts + Tickers to Watch Election in May is the main clock. Right-wing win unlocks fracking and permits. Stocks still price in regime risk, not recovery.

[44:15] – Hair on the Story: What Could Go Wrong? Asset decline curves, protest blockades, political manipulation. What investors need to underwrite before sizing up the trade.

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This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 is going to change how the obesity market can scale.

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber speaks with Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, a long/short equity fund focused on biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Doug and Sriker unpack why oral delivery matters for access, and long-term earnings power. The discussion focuses on how behavioral friction, PBMs, pricing mechanics, and policy all shape adoption, often more than clinical data alone.

Topics include:

• Why obesity drugs are a penetration story, not just an efficacy story

• How PBMs influence which drugs patients actually receive

• Why list prices are misleading, and how direct pricing changes access

• What’s priced into LLY today, and what may not be

👉 Doug shares his full Variant View exclusively in Buy-side Insights, the official PTPM newsletter. Subscribe to get the complete framework.

👉 This episode is supported by Carbon Arc, an alternative data platform that gives investors access to real-world transaction and behavioral data to better understand adoption, pricing, and demand. Learn more at https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome

🛑 Disclaimer

This conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

In this episode, Doug sits down with Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion on the current state of the AI arms race.Key Takeways:OpenAI has over-promised on the $1.4T of commitments to ORCL, CRWV, etc… and likely has to renegotiate and reduce the scope of its ambitions across the AI value chain to focus on their core like ChatGPT. There are big competitors in the LLM race, such as GOOG and META, so OpenAI will need deep pockets that are willing to bet on Altman to keep the story rolling. Raising capital in the private markets is the near-term solution to solve the funding gap…and all is ok at OpenAI as long as the funding keeps coming and the growth keeps beating expectations….not a lot of margin of error here. If it’s a game of who can lose money the longest, I would not want to bet against GOOG or META’’s cash flow machines. META could find discipline and reduce capex, don;t hold your breath as Zuck has a big ego and a big balance sheet. He’s sending a signal to the market that he is going after AGI and has the balance sheet to do it. Stock would be better off if META split into an infrastructure company and an asset light social media company. The stock price driver in the near-term is based on capex and Zuck’s desire to win the LLM race and AGI. Ugh.GOOG is now the consensus winner, low-cost AI provider and now with a SOTP story. Regulatory breakup behind them and now commercializing TPU’s and marginally ahead in the LLM race. If OpenAI starts to monetize its traffic or new position in the TOF, then it could pose a risk to the consensus long GOOG…No signs of that yet. Will check CarbonArc for the latest digital advertising alternative data. The OpenAI contracts with ORCL and CRWV are “known” to be be unattainable and if they are renegotiated, it could potentially be a positive catalyst for those related stocks that have already discounted a negative outcome depending on the new terms as the negative catalyst is past (potential short covering) or the overhang is removed. Disclosure: Not Investment advice. Host andor affiliates are long GOOG and META and short NVDA.📩 Subscribe for more deep-dive conversations and variant views: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508Episode partner:💡 Powered by AlphaSense. For complimentary access to their GenAI and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

In this Alpha Sense sponsored webinar, we discuss how AI’s power demand is rewriting the energy equation.What started as a “data problem” has become an energy story — and few people have thought more deeply about that intersection than Arjun Murti, former Goldman Partner and author of Super-Spiked.Together, we unpacked:- How data centers consistent energy requirements are changing natural gas markets and the energy transition- Whether oil’s “durable demand” is misunderstood and where we are in the oil cycle- How the energy transition is creating both constraints and investment opportunitiesThis isn’t a conversation you want to miss. Watch on-demand now.*Not investment advice*Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeThis is an Alpha Sense webinar. For a complimentary trial click the link below: https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/

Doug Garber, former Citadel analyst and Millennium Senior PM, joins the Odds On Open podcast to unpack his experience  inside two of the top multi-manager platforms. Up and comer, Ethan Kho, explores the culture inside these two leading alternative asset management firms. We explore what defines success at each firm and what really separates the PMs and analysts who thrive from those who don’t.

Doug explains the real contrast between the two giants.

Citadel runs like a tightly coordinated multi-strategy machine — centralized, structured, feedback-rich, and built around process.

Millennium is a different animal — a decentralized ecosystem of entrepreneurial pods, each built to generate uncorrelated alpha with real autonomy and accountability.

We walk through how those environments shape talent: the transparency, the competition, the coaching, and the pressure…all the things that forge (or break) careers.

We also break down the fundamentals of long/short equity the way practitioners actually use them:

• building variant views through deep equity research

• mastering the stock-picking process

• balancing market-neutral discipline with conviction-driven ideas

• using risk models and factor overlays the right way

• and how the best PMs train, challenge, and develop analysts through tight feedback loops

We dig into:

• Citadel vs Millennium: structured discipline vs entrepreneurial autonomy

• How sell-side training builds real domain expertise for buy-side analysts

• Why deep research and sector mastery are the foundation of durable alpha

• Understanding alpha and how top PMs manage idiosyncratic risk inside portfolios

• How risk, exposure, and factor awareness drive performance at multi-strats

• Culture, competition, and why the environment shapes outcomes more than people think

• The analyst–PM relationship and what “credibility” really means

• Lessons from blow-ups, post-mortems, and how great teams institutionalize learning

• What it actually takes to move from analyst to PM — curiosity, resilience, and ownership

• How Citadel teaches risk awareness vs how Millennium develops independent thinkers

• Building portfolios that hedge factor noise and isolate true alpha

• Why grit and curiosity matter more than pedigree in breaking into top hedge fund seats

• Doug’s own journey: ambition, burnout, family, and life after the multi-manager grind

• And why he launched Pitch The PM — real industry insight and markets education for the next generation coming up the ladder

00:00 Intro

00:54 What makes a great fundamental investment process

01:43 Why domain knowledge and equity research matter

02:42 How sell-side experience transfers to the buy-side

04:39 How deep research drives alpha in long/short equity

05:43 Grit and curiosity in hedge fund careers

07:24 Inside multi-manager hedge fund structures and competition

08:22 Citadel vs Millennium — efficiency vs independence

11:28 How hedge fund culture shapes collaboration

13:55 Working at Citadel vs working at Millennium

18:22 Risk management inside top multi-strategy funds

19:10 Understanding IDEO and quantitative overlays

21:54 Managing factor exposure and market neutral strategies

25:18 Risk models across multi-manager hedge funds

27:03 Training long-only PMs for market neutral thinking

28:03 Teaching IDEO concepts to new PMs

31:25 Hiring: domain knowledge vs athlete mindset

34:44 Building hedge fund analyst teams and trust

36:57 PM–analyst communication and evidence-based decisions

42:10 Managing pressure inside hedge fund culture

44:53 Lessons from top performers on leadership

45:33 Life after multi-manager hedge funds

46:02 Founding Westport Alpha and work-life balance

49:28 Turning down Citadel and redefining success

51:00 Raising kind, grounded kids and values

53:08 Closing thoughts and Doug’s Pitch the PM

Note: produced by Odds On Open and re-distributed. All publishing rights belong to Odds On Open and may not be redistributed without the consent of them.

In this conversation, Doug sits down with Sinan Xin, managing partner at Amber Road, to discuss the “lost art” of international investing and dive deep on Nebius ($NBIS) — a misunderstood name in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem. Sinan has followed the company since its spinout from Yandex and built a position around $25 post-relisting earlier this year. Here he explains why Nebius now represents 10% of his fund.

They unpack Nebius’ origins inside “Russia’s Google,” its transformation into a neutral global AI compute provider, and the overlooked value of its 28% stake in ClickHouse. The discussion covers how Nebius differs from peers like CoreWeave, what investors miss about its payback economics, and why Sinan believes the market is overlooking a potential $200 stock hiding in plain sight.

1. Action:Maintain a core long in Nebius (NBIS). Keep it as a top-three holding given its asymmetric setup, global customers, and accelerating AI infrastructure growth.

2. Understanding:Nebius operates an AI infrastructure-as-a-service platform spun out from Yandex. It builds and rents compute, storage, and networking capacity (like AWS or CoreWeave) and owns 28% of ClickHouse — a fast-growing open-source database. Customers include Tesla, Anthropic, ByteDance, MercadoLibre, and Microsoft.

3. Valuation:At ~$125–130, the stock trades near 15x implied earnings power, discounting a 10% ROIC versus management’s 25–40% long-term goal. A four-year payback supports a ~$200/share valuation with ~30% downside to $85. No premium is priced for platform optionality.

4. Mispricing:Investors overreact to “Russian risk,” missing that the firm is now based in Western Europe and Israel. Skepticism around GPU depreciation also clouds sentiment. The market overlooks:

• Global neutrality (can serve U.S., EU, and EM customers)

• ClickHouse stake worth near the entire EV

• Software-driven margin expansion

  
  

5. Variant View:The Street views Nebius as a capital-heavy GPU host. Sinan views it as a technology company, not a leasing business. With software heritage and higher-margin products (ClickHouse, ML ops, AI APIs), Nebius should earn AWS-like ROIC, not colocation-style returns.

6. Evidence:

• Global contracts with Microsoft, Anthropic, and Tesla

• ClickHouse stake last valued near $6B; next raise likely $20B+

• Added U.S.-based execs to scale go-to-market

• 40%+ utilization growth; payback trending to 3 years

• 1,300 engineers from Yandex — proven technical base

  
  

7. Catalysts:

• Next ClickHouse funding round and potential monetization

• New hyperscaler or enterprise partnerships

• Index inclusion and rising institutional ownership

• Disclosure of improving ROIC and payback metrics

• Recognition that Nebius is an AI software platform

  
  

8. Upside:Base case $200/share (~60% upside); bull case $220–250 if ClickHouse valuation rises and incremental capacity earns 25%+ ROIC — assuming no multiple expansion.

9. Risks:GPU cost compression, political or regulatory backlash, deployment delays, or overestimation of ClickHouse profitability.

10. Alignment:Founders and early engineers hold significant equity. Management is equity-compensated and performance-driven, with a culture of technologists, not financiers.

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In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber sits down with Jeff Geygan, CEO of Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF), and Carrie Cass, the company’s CFO, to discuss how they’re rebuilding one of America’s most recognizable confectionery brands.The conversation goes far beyond chocolate — it’s a candid look at what real operational transformation looks like inside a small-cap public company.They cover:The steps taken to stabilize operations and rebuild cultureWhy data, ERP, and POS systems were the foundation for changePlans to expand east of the Mississippi and revitalize store growthManaging costs, margins, and franchisee relationships in a higher-rate environmentLessons from taking a “Wall Street to Main Street” approach to leadershipDoug also explores the investment lens — from the company’s long history and competitive set (including Kilwins) to the balancing act between leverage, growth, and execution risk.“This has been more than a turnaround. It’s a transformation. We’re big enough to execute — small enough to move fast.” — Jeff, CEO, RMCF🎧 Listen if you’re interested in:Turnarounds and small-cap operating playbooksHow management teams rebuild trust and cultureFranchise economics and capital disciplineThe realities of running a consumer business through a transformationChapters:(0:00) — Intro: Betting on chocolate(2:35) — RMCF’s footprint and business model(7:01) — Operational reset: from ERP to culture(10:35) — Rebuilding the franchise network(15:47) — Store economics and ROI targets(16:49) — Comparing RMCF and Kilwins valuations(21:41) — Product mix, margins, and brand positioning(29:50) — Managing cocoa price volatility(38:02) — Balance sheet and deleveraging priorities(42:57) — Leadership lessons: culture, curiosity, and execution(48:26) — Closing thoughts: “10x or zero”🔗 LinksThis episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribeDoug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 🛑 DisclaimerThis conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.