Pitch The PM

Jonathan Kasen spent over a decade as a portfolio manager at Fidelity, analyzing industrial and energy companies through the lens of four key elements: organic growth, operating leverage, free cash flow conversion, and reinvestment opportunities. Today, he’s applying those same principles to his latest venture: chocolate.

In this episode of Pitch The PM, Jonathan joins Doug Garber to talk about his journey from Wall Street to small business ownership. They dive deep into what makes a great compounder—public or private—and how Buffett’s See’s Candies investment and a shaky car ride with the Oracle himself helped shape Kasen’s thinking.

Choosing a great industry like chocolate is a good start and then management execution is the key to compounding. Kasen’s blueprint at Hillard’s is similar to See’s Candies regional strategy decades ago.

💡 A big thank you to StreetAccount by FactSet for sponsoring this episode. Stay plugged in to key news from your entire watch list all in one place with StreetAccount.

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Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

Not Investment Advice.

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this conversation, Doug reconnects with former Citadel colleague, Yuri Gelfman, for a deep dive on Fastenal ($FAST), a core name in the industrial distribution space. Yuri brings over a decade of coverage experience and shares why, despite Fastenal’s reputation as a high-quality compounder, the stock’s recent move to ~40x forward earnings looks stretched. They walk through the company’s evolution from branch-led growth to vending and on-site inventory management, why those growth engines may be plateauing, and how mean reversion on valuation could play out as comps normalize. Along the way, Yuri outlines the KPIs he tracks, the catalysts that matter, and the risks to his variant view. 

What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take? Sell or short FAST. A high-quality industrial distributor, but the multiple (~40x forward EPS) has run far ahead of fundamentals, with vending/on-site growth engines slowing.

Do I UNDERSTAND this business? Yes. Covered FAST for 10+ years with multiple management meetings. Distributor of fasteners (~30% of mix), safety (~20%+), tools, and MRO products. ~85% U.S. sales, core end markets in machinery, fabricated metals, and primary metals. Growth shifted from branches to vending/on-site inventory management.

Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today? No. FAST trades at ~40x 2026 EPS vs a long-term average of 24–27x, despite lower growth prospects ahead.

Why is this stock MIS-PRICED? Street extrapolated short-term YoY sales acceleration (2–3% in Jan → 12–13% by July) and bid up the stock. But on a 3-yr stack, growth has held flat (~17–18%). Market also lumped FAST in with industrial re-acceleration plays and “quality compounder” sentiment.

What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? Street sees momentum and durable vending growth. Variant view: vending productivity growth has collapsed (+24% CAGR 2014–22 → +5% in 2023 → –3% in 2024) and vending install growth is slowing (guidance cut to ~25.5k from 29k). With vending plateauing and mix shifting to lower-margin categories, FAST can’t justify a 40x multiple.

What is the EVIDENCE? Company disclosures: vending install and productivity KPIs, monthly sales, and gross margin data. June +9.8% YoY, July +12.8%, Aug +11.8% — but on a 3-yr stack: Q1 16.8%, Q2 17.0%, Jul 17.5%, Aug 18.3% = no true acceleration. Branch-based revenue CAGR only ~2.5% over the last decade.

What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view? Monthly sales releases (stock dropped 4%+ on Aug miss), quarterly earnings, vending KPI deterioration, gross margin pressure from mix shift to large customers and safety SKUs.

What is it WORTH if the bet is right? Near term (6–9 months): low-30s P/E multiple, implying ~20–25% downside. Medium term: if vending slowdown proves structural, sub-20x multiple is possible, EPS CAGR just 2–4%, suggesting 40–50% downside.

What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet? Management execution could reinvigorate vending/on-site strategy, or industrial short-cycle recovery could extend momentum. Strong cultural alignment and historical execution track record may keep the multiple elevated longer.

Is management ALIGNED with ownership? Yes. Incentives tied to gross profit growth and SG&A control. Long-tenured management team, significant stock ownership. No red flags on alignment.

💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

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Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Not Investment Advice. 

At the time of initial episode publication, the host had a short position in FAST. This may change at any time and there is no obligation to update you. 

The AI Capex Super-Cycle is well underway. We dive deep with Doug O'Laughlin, the President of SemiAnalysis - the leading field level industry experts and Michelle Brophy, the TMT DoR at AlphaSense. Watch the webinar now: https://lnkd.in/eUat9NyuIn this AlphaSense sponsored webinar we dive into all the key debates and which companies and products are winning across the entire AI Capex ecosystem. The SemiAnalysis team goes to 85 industry level conferences a year to get the inside scoop. From Hypersaclers, Neoclouds, Semi's, to E&C's and Industrial Manufacturers anything downstream of AI capex is what is working. And the capital markets are WIDE OPEN on the DCM, ECM and the largest customers, the hyperscalers, are continuing to revise capex higher each quarter to win this race.In the webinar we dive into:- What will $NVDA's market share be in a few years? - What is the real differentiator of the CUDA system?- Why $CRWV is winning? - Is $GOOG the next IBM?- What is the opportunity for the TPU and other chips?- We build on our Hydra Host episode with Aaron Ginn to discuss how the U.S. wins vs China in the AI race.- What is the rate (and thus economic life) of a GPU after a few years?- How the shift to inference from training is impacting companies?- And even dig into the benefits of using copper in the chips. Disclosures:*Not Investment Advice. **I have evened out my AI exposure to META vs NVDA. (Thesis is not a call on timing the AI cycle, but a relative value way to play the company that is able to improve their ecosystem returns and customer experience vs a company that is currently generating most of the industry rent that has a history of being cyclical)

Welcome to Pitch The PM, where host Doug Garber is joined by Aaron Ginn, CEO and Co-founder at Hydra Host.

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In this episode, Doug Garber and Aaron Ginn to unpack the forces reshaping the global AI infrastructure stack. They dive deep into Nvidia’s growing dominance and explore how CEO Jensen Huang is building an ecosystem designed to sideline the hyperscalers, financing their destruction while capturing more of the value chain.

Aaron breaks down the shift from public cloud to bare metal, the margin squeeze facing Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, and why GPU infrastructure, not models or software, is now the real bottleneck. The episode also explores the emerging spot market for compute, the evolving ROI math for data centers, and why neoclouds are gaining ground as hyperscaler credibility erodes.

From regionalization and reshoring to export controls and geopolitical leverage, this conversation goes beyond semis and into the future of economic power in the AI era.

See below for episode disclosures.

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Aaron Ginn is the Co-Founder and CEO of Hydra Host, a fast-growing infrastructure company building the largest GPU management platform in the world. Hydra provides a fully automated, API-driven system for monetizing GPU and CPU infrastructure, streamlining bare metal deployment at scale. Before founding Hydra, Aaron co-founded the Lincoln Network (now Foundation for American Innovation) and Fabius Labs, with a focus on bridging technology, policy, and product design. He has over a decade of experience in tech, spanning product, engineering, and digital growth. His work has been featured in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, and Wired.

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Episode partner: AlphaSense

Keep our content free, and please consider supporting our sponsors. They are essential in helping us do our deep-dive research.

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

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Chapters:

[00:00] – Intro & Hydrahost’s Origin Story

[03:07] – The Evolution of Data Centers & AI Infrastructure.

[08:49] – Nvidia's Role & Shifting Market Power

[14:47] – The Decline of Traditional Cloud

[20:54] – The Competitive Landscape. Google, Amazon, and the bundling tactics shaping GPU access. 

[24:01] – Geopolitics & Digital Infrastructure

[37:34] – ROI & GPU Utilization Strategies

[43:36] – Market Liquidity & Pricing Dynamics

[53:23] – Capital Models & Financial Engineering GPU resale, and payback strategies.

[58:01]- China’s Huawei push, Nvidia’s ecosystem defense, and infrastructure land grabs.

▶️ MORE VARIANT VIEW EPISODES:

• NVDA: As Good As It Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=pRlRnhrH6Hknp9zU

• TUSK: Cigar Butt Morphing into a Compounder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0mF5WK91oc&t=396s

Follow Pitch The PM:

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Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5

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⚠️ Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch The PM. In this episode, Doug Garber flips roles and steps in as the analyst pitching Vestis Corporation (VSTS)—a recent spin-out, route-based industrial with a new CEO taking the helm after missteps from the initial CEO. Former SAC PM Hugh Anderson plays the part of portfolio manager, dissecting the thesis and poking holes in the evidence. Together they examine whether the business is broken or simply sandbagged, if re-aligning the sales force incentives by limiting credits can drive margin recovery, and whether new CEO Jim Barber (former UPS COO) can execute a Cintas-style transformation. With short interest high and expectations low, is this a compelling special situation or a value trap?

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Get Doug’s version of the Earnings Preview Checklist: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/p/vsts-sanbagged-guide-new-ceo-s-turnaround-plan-could-be-a-catalyst-high-short-interest

Chapters:

[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

Doug owns VSTS ahead of what he believes is an underappreciated Q3 setup, driven by sandbagged guidance, a new CEO presenting a turnaround plan. He is bias, so do your own research.

[00:03:40] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

Doug draws on his industrial’s experience from Citadel and Millennium, and lays out VSTS’s core model—route-based delivery of uniforms and business supplies—and how its execution compares to peers like Cintas and UniFirst.

[00:10:50] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

VSTS trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA vs. Cintas at 29x. Doug argues valuation is fair for a fixer-upper and notes that upside lies in earnings revisions, not rerating.

[00:12:55] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

Street views VSTS as broken due to management stumbles, two major guidance cuts, and high leverage. Doug sees it as a speed bump, not a structural issue.

[00:14:50] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?

Doug believes recent underperformance and sandbagging have lowered the bar, setting up a potential beat. The April run-rate already matched December’s, suggesting Q3 upside.

[00:18:00] What is the EVIDENCE?

The last conference call lays out the rebound in sales back to December levels in April. Plus, the excessive narrative on credits helps explain the high decremental margins during the recent shortfall.

[00:25:00] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?

A Q3 beat followed by a Q4 guide above consensus could lead to higher earnings revisions and thus a higher stock price. Plus, the CEO’s turnaround plan could be positive. And there is high-short interest.

[00:34:00] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

With steady growth, the multiple discount vs peers could narrow too. Re-rating to peer levels (0.8x–1.3x EV/revenue) from 0.3x could also happen as profitability improves.

[00:40:00] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

Management may invest heavily, hurting near-term FCF. Credit covenants may linger. CEO could have a conservative stance out of the gate on the 4Q guide.

[00:45:00] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

Jim Barber’s equity was granted post last quarter’s miss, guide pull, and dividend cut. He has a good starting point.

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Episode partner:💡

Powered by AlphaSense.

For complimentary access to their earnings tools and expert call library, visit: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

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Not Investment Advice. Doug owns VSTS and is biased.

This episode is a replay of a webinar recorded on May 15th, where Ed Moya interviews Doug Garber, founder of Pitch the PM and Westport Alpha. Doug walks through his 10-step Variant View Checklist to make the case for Zoom ($ZM). Once seen as a COVID-era relic, Zoom is now a misunderstood, cash-rich business with sticky enterprise traction, product expansion into UCaaS, and a setup that offers asymmetric upside if growth reaccelerates.

1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?
Doug owns $ZM after hearing Sean Emory pitch it in Episode 2. He sees it as a high-conviction long with multiple ways to win. The company trades at a depressed multiple despite $7B in cash, strong real FCF, and signs of growth reaccelerating through enterprise attach rates and product expansion beyond core video.

2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business?
Yes. Doug is a longtime user of Zoom and its competitors. He's reviewed expert calls via AlphaSense, spoken to the company, and built conviction through firsthand usage and external diligence.

3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?
Yes. Zoom trades at an 8–10% unlevered FCF yield, and Doug adjusts for dilution of ~2–3% annually. The company remains profitable, debt-free, and is actively buying back shares.

4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?
The decline in Zoom’s online SMB segment has masked steady enterprise growth. The market sees stagnation. Doug sees a business quietly transitioning into a sticky UCaaS platform with pricing power, expanding attach rates, and increasing value per seat.

5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?
Doug believes the street underestimates Zoom’s ability to reignite growth. While consensus focuses on competition from Microsoft and Google, Doug sees Zoom executing faster, particularly with Zoom Phone, Contact Center, and AI integrations.

6. What is the EVIDENCE?
He cites AlphaSense expert calls and customer examples—one enterprise boosted spend from $150K to $500K after adopting Zoom Phone. Product feedback is strong, engineering hires from Microsoft signal talent migration, and real-time data from web traffic, app downloads, and channel checks support traction.

7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view?
Improved enterprise attach, stabilization in online, AI companion usage, strategic M&A or capital deployment, and beat-and-raise quarters are potential catalysts. Investor perception could shift as Zoom repositions as a broader platform with pricing leverage.

8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right?
Doug sees upside to $150/share. If growth improves to mid-single digits and the FCF yield compresses to 4–5%, the stock could deliver 70–90% total upside over time. Optionality from the $7B balance sheet could accelerate that outcome through smart M&A.

9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?
Downside risk exists if growth flattens or declines further. Doug estimates 20–30% downside in that case, but the $7B in cash and stable FCF provide a strong margin of safety. Even in a bear case, the asset could be attractive to a strategic acquirer.

10. Is MANAGEMENT ALIGNED with ownership?
Mixed. Founder Eric Yuan still owns ~8% and recently returned to a product-focused role. However, stock-based comp has been elevated, though the company is now shifting toward cash comp. Culture and product velocity remain strengths.

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💡 Sponsored by AlphaSense. Complimentary access for listeners: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Guests may hold positions and are under no obligation to update. Do your own research and consult with a financial advisor. Shorting is risky and should be discussed with a professional.

In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug welcomes Mark Layton, CFO of Mammoth Energy Services (NASDAQ: TUSK), to explore one of his highest conviction investment ideas and his first of twenty lifetime “Buffett punchcard” investments. This small cap company ($132 MM market cap) is valued below cash levels ($150 MM) with the market giving the company no credit for its existing businesses or underutilized equipment that was recently valued at $145 MM by an independent appraiser. The company recently exited its largest industrial business for $110 MM (more than 3x MOIC), has its land drilling rigs held for sale and subsequent to the recording of this episode sold its frac assets for $15 MM. Mammoth, with the help of its largest shareholder - Wexford, is targeting 25-35% unlevered IRR’s in the aviation rental space where it has a robust pipeline. The company is also incubating its engineering, fiber, and rental equipment businesses. Doug views this as a private equity investment in a public shell without the fees. - Growing the rental business. Mammoth has oilfield rental equipment and helicopters in the portfolio and in April 2025 they purchased 8 airplane. Seeing deal flow through Wexford with unlevered IRR’s at 25-35%.- TUSK is in a void in the capital markets and it resembles a private equity company in a public shell. - 2024 was the worst year for natural gas. Historical presence in the Marcellus and Utica from the co-investment of Gulfport and Wexford to form the initial frac company. 6 frac spreads in total, but lack sufficient scale [Note: Mammoth sold their frac equipment on June 16, 2025]. - View capital allocation like a private equity shop.- Accommodations was its own segment after the IPO, it has done well. Formed by Wexford in 2006/07. Renewed interest in the oil sands. Looking at investments there that can increase the room rates. Have a good leader there and has generated steady FCF. Used this unit for Puerto Rico housing.- Opportunity for expansion into construction. Returns are mid to high teens, unlevered.- Engineering and fiber businesses — Built the businesses around the leaders. As we look at incubating the Engineering business, it should trade for low to mid double digits EBITDA multiple. Fiber has taken a little longer to ramp up, but government funds are starting to hit the market. Can potentially do acquisitions as fiber is fragmented- Grow rental business in OFS and aircraft. Aircraft are the most attractive. Continue to evaluate the remote accommodations business. Firm up the fiber business. - Wexford’s waived consulting fee and provides access to deal flow without the $500,000 fee as they own 47%. Thoughtful patient investors.Links:📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Mark Layton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markelaytonMammoth Energy Services: https://www.mammothenergy.com/*Not Investment Advice

In this episode of Pitch The PM, host Doug Garber sits down with Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, to discuss one of the market’s most buzzed-about stocks—Palantir (PLTR). Parker brings a sobering view of why PLTR’s irrational valuation could be set to crack on a significant index rebalance.  After increasing over five fold over the last year and reaching a market cap of over $300 billion, PLTR is slated to be removed from the Russell mid-cap index where it is over an 8% weight.  The discussion spans index rebalancing mechanics, passive investing distortions, and what it means when a $300B+ company is still classified as a mid-cap. Tune in to understand how supply and demand stock mismatches—rather than company fundamentals—can potentially drive stock prices.

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[00:00:0] 1. What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

Sell or short PLTR.

Parker argues it's the most overvalued stock he's seen in his multi-decade career and believes the risk-reward skews heavily negative in the short term due to index rebalancing.

[00:04:34] 2. Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

Parker admits he isn’t a fundamental expert on Palantir’s operations but understands the key drivers of its valuation—mainly government contracts, AI positioning, and retail enthusiasm.

[00:05:21] 3. Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

No. He emphasizes that PLTR  trades at an extreme multiple of future revenue, with enterprise value/sales far above any rational historical benchmark.

[00:06:39] 4. Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

Because of index fund mechanics, “forced” buying from mid-cap PMs, strong retail momentum,  exposure to the AI theme and government contracts.  

[00:12:22] 5. What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street?

Most investors are buying due to momentum or index requirements or risk-management (to own at least part of a large index component). Parker’s view is rooted in historical data: no company of Palantir’s size has ever grown fast enough to justify such a valuation.

[00:13:05] 6. What is the EVIDENCE?

Historical analysis of EV/revenue multiples and historical growth comparisons. Palantir’s implied growth rate is historically unprecedented for a company of its size.

[00:17:05] 7. What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize the view?

The June 28 Russell rebalance, where Palantir will be removed from mid-cap indexes. This will likely trigger large-scale forced selling, especially from passive and mid-cap growth funds.

[00:25:38] 8. What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

If PLTR re-rates to the second most expensive company instead of the first, Parker estimates a 50% downside—possibly more if sentiment shifts.

[00:26:59] 9. What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

Continued retail inflows, AI enthusiasm, government contract momentum, or a broad market rally could keep the stock elevated or even push it higher. Parker discusses MSTR and APP as possible hedges to isolate the negative impact of the PLTR index imbalance.

[00:34:28] 10. Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

To some degree—CEO Alex Karp holds around $1 billion in stock, but the company is also heavily owned by large passive managers. Parker sees no immediate red flags but also doesn’t weigh alignment heavily in this short thesis.

Learn more about the Russell mid-cap index: HERE

💡 This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

Links:

Trivector Research: https://trivariateresearch.com/

Adam Parker: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-parker-759542179

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 

Disclosure:
This is not Investment Advice. Speakers in the episode may have positions in the securities discussed and are under no obligation to inform you of any changes.

Welcome back to another episode of Pitch the PM. In this episode, Doug speaks with biotech expert, Sriker Nadipuram from Critical Value Asset Management, about Jazz Pharmaceuticals Although outside Doug’s typical investment lane, the conversation highlights shared frameworks and rigorous research methodologies. Sriker unpacks Jazz’s business model, detailing its base business in neurology and the high-potential oncology pipeline. They examine the firm’s risk-reward setup, political uncertainty from tariffs and drug pricing, and why the market may be overlooking a potentially transformational oncology outcome in 2H’25. Tune in to learn more about JAZZ’s value proposition amid healthcare uncertainty.

*Not Investment Advice. 

 Chapters:

[00:00:00] What ACTION do I want the Portfolio Manager to take?

• Waiting on tax uncertainty for Irish-domiciled company to clear despite compelling fundamental oncology clinical catalyst opportunity

• JAZZ framed with $15 downside vs. $70–80 of upside potential with clinical success.

[00:10:38] Do I UNDERSTAND this business?

• Sriker is an expert in biotech with extensive training and experience.  

• Breakdown of Jazz’s neurology and epilepsy base, including Xyrem/Xywav and Epidiolex.

• Outside of Doug’s circle of competence. No position. Difficult to form a view on the potential impact of drug pricing, taxes and the clinical outcome. Although, Sriker does provide a rational view for the clinical outcome being partially de-risked and the potential value uplift to JAZZ.

[00:22:43] Is the stock available at a REASONABLE price today?

• Striker’s valuation view shows the stock is undervalued even without pipeline contributions at a 5x 2026 P/E.

• They discuss that DCF valuation is front-loaded with little terminal value due to the patent expiring eventually. 

[00:27:54] Why is this stock MIS-PRICED?

• Jazz is wrongly lumped with speculative biopharma names despite durable earnings.

• Generalists are avoiding the space due to uncertainty around drug pricing. JAZZ also has earnings uncertainty due to its Irish domicile.

[00:29:07] What is the VARIANT VIEW vs the street? 

• Generalists have exited biopharma.

• Sriker sees a solid base valuation from existing portfolio and a potential clinical catalyst that is being overlooked due to the lack of interest in the biotech space. 

[00:36:40] What is the EVIDENCE?

• Sriker outlines research methods including AlphaSense transcripts and expert networks that build on top of his education in pharmaceuticals and investment experience. 

[00:39:05] What are the CATALYSTS for the street to realize my view?

• A Phase 3 gastric cancer trial readout expected in H2 2025 could be positive for JAZZ. 

• Clarity on Irish domiciled tax policies and drug pricing changes.

[00:49:42] What is it WORTH if the bet is right?

• Sriker sees potential upside to ~$180+ based on projected oncology sales and expanded FCF.

[00:51:09] What is the OTHER SIDE of the bet?

• Risks include clinical trial failure, generic pressure, and political/macro headwinds.

[00:56:08] Is management ALIGNED with ownership?

• No buybacks/dividends, but capital is reinvested in pipeline with proven operational execution.

Episode partner: 

💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/

▶️ More Episodes:

• BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGx

• ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc

• POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s

• NVDA: As Good As it Gets: https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM?si=ETW2jhfPsWJ_wD0R

Follow Pitch The PM:

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Pitch The PM Live

Doug Garber breaks down his thesis on the future of NVIDIA using his Variant View checklist. He draws on insights from his recent episode with Gil Luria and incorporates real-time analytics from our show sponsors

5 key points discussed:

✅ Customer capex from a couple Big Tech customers is flattening out sequentially and that should make it hard for NVDA to continue to beat already high expectations for +$4B of QoQ revenue growth. The debate is how much will others absorb?

✅ The S+D for GPU's is already seeing PRICING pressure in the rent by the hour market - the canary in the coal mine?

✅ Increased competition from customer chips and Chinese chips should erode market share and margins in the medium-term

✅ The underlying GPU customer economics appear unsupported by returns and are being driven by an "Arms Race" mentality that could become fragile with declining stock prices recently

✅ The reduced NVDA valuation implies some bad news is being discounted. We use a reverse-DCF to dig-in here.

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Thanks to FinTool and InSync Analytics for sponsoring this webinar. Use this link to access a complimentary free trial: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=pitchthePM

📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

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Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction & Webinar Overview

02:15 – Doug Garber’s Background & Investment Philosophy

05:40 – NVIDIA's Position, Management Signals, & Investment Framework

09:00 – Bull vs. Bear: Framing the Debate on NVDA

20:15 – Supply, Demand, and Competitive Landscape

31:05 – Market Expectations, Pricing Trends & Cyclical Risks

41:00 – Capital Allocation, Big Tech CapEx & Future Catalysts

57:50 – Q&A: On Shorts, CapEx, Demand Cycles & More

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▶️ MORE EPISODES:

NVDA: As Good As It Gets https://youtu.be/x8gJ8ElyUlM

POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s

ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc

BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxFollow

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