Podcast Notes Playlist: Business

• Advice for Young Innovators: Work on the things that you are genuinely interested in and do not rely on other people to tell you what you should be working on 
• The term “conspiracy theorist” was invented by the CIA and used to discredit anyone who questioned the original results of the JFK assassination investigation

• “It’s pretty extraordinary that “conspiracy theory” and “conspiracy theorists” are themselves literally born of a government conspiracy.” – Palmer 

Palmer Luckey is an entrepreneur and innovator best known for founding Oculus VR and Anduril Industries. In 2012, he launched Oculus VR and developed the Oculus Rift, a groundbreaking virtual reality headset that redefined a wide array of industries. The company was acquired by Facebook in 2014 for $2 billion, where Luckey subsequently worked until 2017.

Following his departure, he founded Anduril Industries - a defense technology company specializing in autonomous systems including drones, surveillance towers, and aircraft. Anduril has secured major contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and international allies. The company has raised significant funding, including $1.5 billion in 2022, valuing it at $8.5 billion.

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• DOGE is forcing the essential question: “What is the essential role of government?”
  • The people who are complaining the loudest about DOGE are probably the ones who have committed the most fraud 
• DOGE found USAID making some interesting payments:
  • $1.5 million to “advance DEI in Serbia’s workplaces and business communities”
  • $2 million for sex changes and “LGBT activism” in Guatemala 
  • $70,000 for production of a “DEI musical” in Ireland 
• The corrupt USAID payments force the question: “What is the real grassroot support for these left-wing policies all over the world?” 
• “We know that the US government runs a $2 trillion deficit every year; we’re in debt almost $40 trillion. We also knew that anytime anyone tries to cut anything in Washington, the whole city screams bloody murder. So the question is, why? Well, now we know: the money is all going to them – it is round-tripping to them.” – David Sacks 
• USAID paid $8 million to Politico and several million dollars to the BBC; this may help to explain why certain political controversies, such as the Hunter Biden laptop story, were buried during the 2020 election cycle 
• The Democrats have lost their way because they have forgotten “kitchen table issues” – the things that regular people care about and discuss at their kitchen tables 
• “A sovereign wealth fund would be a stealthy way to create industrial policy in America.” – Antonio Gracias 
  • A US sovereign wealth fund can serve as a rainy-day fund for the nation and a place to store the enormous amounts of revenue that can be created from pro-energy policies 
• Unleashing the American Productivity Machine: AI will cause job loss, but the amount of productivity that it will also enable in the US economy will be extraordinary 
• GLP-1 drugs aren’t just for weight loss and appetite control – they might protect the brain and heart but could come with risks for digestion, kidneys, and the pancreas 

(0:00) The Besties intro Antonio Gracias!

(3:11) DOGE takes on USAID

(31:44) Sacks breaks in to talk USAID

(34:00) Sacks explains what he's working on: Crypto/AI Frameworks

(46:41) The Democratic Party's shrinking base

(52:33) US Sovereign Wealth Fund + Breaking DOGE/Tax News

(1:09:07) Google to spend $75B on AI buildout in 2025, future of work in the age of AI

(1:23:21) Science Corner: GLP-1 macro study

Follow Antonio:

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https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Agency_for_International_Development

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/usaid-donald-trump-elon-musk-marco-rubio-state-department-foreign-aid-8d2a1920

https://www.usa.gov/agencies/u-s-agency-for-international-development

https://www.usaspending.gov/agency/agency-for-international-development?fy=2024

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/at-usaid-waste-and-abuse-runs-deep

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banks-sell-5-5-billion-of-x-loans-after-investor-interest-surges-4b84f89c

https://www.usaspending.gov

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ex-politico-reporters-reveal-editors-quashed-slow-walked-negative-biden-stories-with-no-explanation

https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/fa0cefae-7cfb-881d-29c3-1bd39cc6a49e-C/2024

https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaaction/about/funding

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid

https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/1884034727046226317

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1886627783138316442

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/usaid-security-leaders-removed-refusing-elon-musks-doge-employees-accercna190357

https://x.com/Jason/status/1885082871074886110

https://x.com/anc_aesthetics/status/1886176995433763188

https://x.com/wikileaks/status/1887501752213409919

https://x.com/pm_viktororban/status/1887224829352280505

https://x.com/daily_romania/status/1887883017550430435

https://x.com/kanekoathegreat/status/1887261736618893636

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology

https://x.com/davidsacks47/status/1886878016183394403

https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/scott-hagerty-lummis-gillibrand-introduce-legislation-to-establish-a-stablecoin-regulatory-framework

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/02/rahm-emanuel-democrats-voters-kitchen-table

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/scott-bessents-3-percent-deficit-target-would-require-massive-cuts-to-anti-poverty-programs-and-middle-class-tax-increases

https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-weigh-block-doge-accessing-treasury-department-records/story?id=118498817

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_DOGE_Service

https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1887585824218509380

https://fedscoop.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2025/02/show_temp.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/05/alphabet-shares-fall-7percent-on-revenue-miss-heightened-ai-investments.html

https://abc.xyz/assets/a3/91/6d1950c148fa84c7d699abe05284/2024q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1886899315735507255

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03412-w

• “My appetite for finding the best person in the world to do the thing instead of me doing it is almost infinite.” – Graham Duncan 
• Desire wants what it wants; get in tune with your desire 
• Leverage your comparative advantage: Most investing strategies are downstream of the simple goal of (1) making money and (2) not losing too much

• In investing, the goal is to make money – not be right or feed the go 

• Be opportunistic and flexible so that you can flow with emergent market dynamics instead of getting stuck in them 

My guest today is Graham Duncan. This conversation will make you think about your life in new ways. This is a two-hour segment of a 4.5-hour interview I did with Graham last year. It stands alone as remarkable, but those who subscribe to Colossus Review will gain access to the full conversation. This will be true in future issues, too.

In 2006, in his early 30s, Graham convinced Stuart Miller, CEO of home construction company Lennar, to let him manage $50 million of his family's wealth. A year later, Miller gave him the rest of his capital outside of Lennar. That investment turned into East Rock, where Graham built an incredible investing track record managing billions for a select group of families by focusing on people.

Our conversation explores a wide range of topics—from what makes a great investment partnership to the power of positive feedback loops to starting a restaurant.

I’m thankful to Graham for showing me the way so many times and for being willing to be so incredibly open in this conversation. Please enjoy this discussion with Graham Duncan. 

Subscribe to Colossus Review.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Show Notes:

• The Life of Isaac Newton: Forever voyaging through strange seas of thought, alone 
• Top Isaac Newton quotes from this episode: 
  • “Truth is the offspring of silence and meditation.”
  • “I keep the subject constantly before me, and wait until the first dawnings open slowly, little by little, into a full and clear light.” 
  • “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”
• Brilliance without passion: Geniuses are not beasts of burden and cannot be chained to whatever problem is set before them; intelligence is only half the equation of genius – it is the excitement that generates most of the action 
• Learning as a form of obsession: Newton learned as a form of obsession, which is the vital ingredient for achieving greatness 
• Balancing Obsession and Moderation: Too much study and too much passion will lead to madness 
• Newton on imagination and fantasy: “Fantasy is helped by good air, fasting, and moderate wine. It is spoiled by drunkenness, gluttony, and too much study.” 
• Newton was driven to understand things from first principles; he obsessively tried to quantify everything  
• Newton made his crowning scientific achievement at the age of 44, publishing the Principia in 1687; this work laid the foundation for classical mechanics, introducing his laws of motion and the law of universal gravitation
• Newton’s child-like love for the world and his desire to understand the world around him led to his greatest breakthroughs 

Isaac Newton was one of the great geniuses in human history. He established the basic laws of physics, discovered the laws of gravity, invented calculus, and refined the scientific method. On this episode we take a look at how he was able to accomplish so much by analyzing his strategies, tactics, and work habits.

• Price is the most important thing: Many investors make the mistake of wanting to buy the good things irrespective of price, but investing in a great company that gets expensive is worse than investing in a bad company that is cheap 
• It’s all about real purchasing power: People always talk about markets “going up” without accounting for the denomination that those markets are measured in  – in this case, the declining US dollar 
• “The dollar has been a strong currency, but not measured in gold or bitcoin.” – Ray 
• During periods of structural fiat currency debasement, it is best to own assets that have the following characteristics: international, mobile, relatively private, secure 
• Long-term risk of AI: Determining how the proverbial pie is divided will be a very political issue to navigate because the disruptive effects of AI will be enormous 
• The AI “tech war” is a war that no country can lose because it is more important than profits: If the US or China loses this war, they will face significantly greater consequences than simply losing out on profits
• It is ideal to invest in productivity, but there will be great disruption along the way – perhaps even amongst the hyperscalers, such as Nvidia
• The arithmetic debt spiral: The longer we wait to intervene, the more we will have to cut in the future to get out of the hole – the consequences of inaction compound non-linearly 
• We need more than just DOGE to fix the current fiscal situation; we need less regulation, more productivity, and new streams of revenue 
• While things are fine now, likely, a period of great conflict is ahead: A “hellacious” ten-year period is upon us in which our problems will be greater and our coordination for dealing with those problems will be less 

(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!

(0:50) The current US fiscal situation

(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth

(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar

(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999

(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis

(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk

(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China

Follow the Besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow Ray Dalio:

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Read Part 1 of "How Countries Go Broke":

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1878840018770210979

Pre-order "How Countries Go Broke":

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Follow on X:

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html

• Check out the episode page

Get our Business Monetization Playbook: https://clickhubspot.com/monetization

Episode 670: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk to Andrew Wilkinson ( https://x.com/awilkinson ) about the AI tools that are replacing new hires. 

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My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by The HubSpot Podcast Network // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano

• Greatness does not come from intelligence; it comes from character, which can only be earned from overcoming adversities and developing perseverance 
• Strategy is not words; strategy is action 
• The Mission is the Boss: Nvidia exists to serve a mission and not for the sake of perpetuating its existence 
• Refuse to be outworked and be unapologetically extreme in your dedication; working long hours is a necessary prerequisite for excellence 
• Do what is natural and organic to you so that you enjoy it and can do it for a long period 
• The Speed of Light Framework for project execution: Instead of judging performance based on past performance or against the competition, judge yourself against the theoretical maximum of what can be achieved in the minimum amount of time; the law of physics should be your only constraint 
• Jensen tortures people into greatness: “The work” is the most important thing, not people’s feelings 
• Hone the sword by seeking conflict: Opportunity handled well leads to more opportunity 
• Innovation is a necessity, not an option
• Nvidia has a flat organizational structure that (1) Enables employees to act with more independence and (2) Filters out low-performing employees who are unaccustomed to thinking for themselves 
• Ship the Whole Cow: Nvidia found ways to package and sell hardware that it previously would have discarded; this helped it mitigate low-end market competition and insulate itself from the innovator’s dilemma 
• Complacency kills: The enemy is not the competition, but the company falling victim to complacency –  both real and imagined  

What I learned from reading The Nvidia Way: Jensen Huang and the Making of a Tech Giant by Tae Kim.

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“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — Gareth

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“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — Gareth

Be like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast

• While the AIs will be smart and conscientious, they will still face human bottlenecks, such as bureaucracies and committees at universities
• We may not notice AI productivity gains on shorter timeframes: Even if they only boost economic growth by 0.5% per year, that is a massive productivity gain over 30-40 years! 
• “There are going to be bottlenecks all along the way. It’s going to be a tough slug – like the printing press, like electricity. The people who study diffusion of new technologies never think there will be rapid takeoff.” – Tyler Cowen
  • Opposition to AI will only increase as the technology starts to change what the world looks like 
• There is increasing variance in the human distribution: Young people at the top are doing much better and are more impressive than they were in earlier times. The very bottom of the distribution is also getting better. But the “thick middle” is getting worse.
• Since humans are an input “other than the AI”, then humans will rise in marginal value, even if we will have to learn to do different things
• On Popularity and Progress: There is a danger that as a thing becomes more popular, at the margin it becomes much worse
• The Tyler Cowen Investment Philosophy: Buy and hold, diversify, hold on tight, make sure you have some cheap hobbies and can cook 
• Tech diffusion is universally pretty slow: While people in the Bay Area are the smartest, most dynamic, and most ambitious, they tend to overvalue intelligence 
• On progress: War should always be the main concern during a period of rapid technological progress; throughout history, when new technologies emerge, they are turned into instruments of war – and terrible things can happen  

I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff.

We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode.

Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to FreeThink for the videography.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Sponsors

I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about Jane Street. It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open rules, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI

(00:14:57) Founder Mode and increasing variance

(00:29:31) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies

(00:33:05) What AI changes for Tyler

(00:44:57) The slow diffusion of innovation

(00:49:53) Stalin's library

(00:52:19) DC vs SF vs EU

• Hetty Green’s business maxims: 
  • 1. Seek out every piece of information on an investment before deciding on it
  • 2. Watch your pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves 
  • 3. Generally, in business, do not close a bargain until you have reflected on it overnight
  • 4. Before making a deal, if anyone is foolish enough to offer you the full amount, take it!
  • 5. Buy when everyone wants to sell and sell when everyone wants to buy  
• A defining character trait of Hetty: She lived by her own rules and did not care what other people thought; by casting off the societal norms of her time, she freed herself to do as she pleased and to live a life on her terms   
• The secret to all successful businesses and a simple strategy for wealth generation: Buy when prices are low and nobody wants them, and keep them until they go up and people become crazy to get them 
• Hetty was self-sovereign, very frugal, and very paranoid: She did not tell other people what she owned or how much she was making, and commonly bought property and stocks under fictitious names
• Greed does not drive the world, envy does; cure yourself of envy because envy is a weakness 
• Some things on Hetty Green’s list of things to NOT do in business:
  • 1. Do not cheat in business or you will find yourself in an early grave
  • 2. Do not fail to be fair in all things and do not kick a man when he is down 
  • 3. Do not envy your neighbors 
  • 4. Do not forget to be charitable and never falsify 
• When it comes to living your life, you will inevitably have to neglect some things; if you try to do too much, you will never get anywhere  

Hetty Green bailed out New York City. Her decisions on what interest rates to charge moved markets and were reported in major newspapers. She was a one woman bank and the single biggest individual financier in the world. She took no partners and ran her own money. She built a financial empire of stocks, bonds, railroads, and real estate. She battled the great men of her day and kept a gun on her desk. She did all of this alone. Defiantly independent and ferociously intelligent she built a vast, liquid fortune at a time when women couldn't even vote. She used her intelligence to increase her wealth, her independence to live as she wished, and her strength to battle anyone who stood in her way.

This episode is what I learned from reading Hetty: The Genius and Madness of America’s First Female Tycoon by Charles Slack and The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age by Janet Wallach. 

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Vesto: All of your company's financial accounts in one view. Connect and control all of your business bank accounts from one dashboard. Go to Vesto and schedule a demo with the founder Ben. Tell him David sent you. 

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“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — Gareth

Be like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast

----

Founders Notes gives you the ability to tap into the collective knowledge of history's greatest entrepreneurs on demand. Use it to supplement the decisions you make in your work.  Get access to Founders Notes here. 

----

“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — Gareth

Be like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast

• “Get away from our sons and away from our daughters. It’s not left or right. I don’t have a Republican bone in my body. Get the crazy people who do not understand human development away from our children.” – Eric Weinstein 
• “Everything worth doing is hard – and the more worth doing it is, the harder it is. The greater the payoff, the greater the hardship. If it’s hard, good. It means no one else will do it. More for you.” – Alex Hormozi 
• Dr. Mike Israetel –  Focus on getting tension in the muscle that you are targeting; getting tension in the muscle you are trying to grow is more significant than focusing on which exercise movement is best 
• Dr. Andrew Huberman – You can become a morning person in three days: Set your alarm to 5 AM, wake up and get out of bed when it goes off, get outside and safely view sunlight, do some form of exercise or movement while viewing the sunlight, ingest caffeine 60-90 mins after waking, and engage in some form of social interaction 
• “The only way that you cannot be humble in old age is when you refuse to look at the reality of your life up to today.” – Dry Creek Dewayne 
• Implement more exercise snacks, such as air squats, into your daily life; the positive effects of short bursts of vigorous energy expenditure through“non-exercise” methods will compound over time and can dramatically improve your health 
• Oliver Burkeman – We often try to attain an impossible level of control over our lives; accept that you will never get life completely sorted out
• Tim Ferriss – Develop identity diversification so that your self-worth is never dependent on just one thing, such as your job; this increases the resiliency and robustness of your mental health
• Joe Hudson – The more you are willing to welcome the range of emotions that you will inevitably experience as a human, the more you are likely to welcome joy as a natural part of existence 

2024 is nearly over, so I decided to put together a compilation of some of my favourite moments from the show over the last year. It was going to be a top 10, but I couldn't choose, so it's 11.