Podgecaste Brazil

The results of the first round of Brazil’s 2026 election have been simultaneously surprising and predictable. Flávio Bolsonaro has secured an upset in the first round, coming in 2 percentage points ahead of the incumbent Lula. Beyond the presidential result, there have also been shock outcomes across the country in key gubernatorial and senate races.

Join us as we take a quick look at the results, muse on the vibes of the whole thing, and evaluate how are own working theories and predictions have played out.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* John’s introduction to Latin America via The Financial Times.

* Why the IBOVESPA was one of the best investments you could make in the early 2000s.

* By the way, John was a colleague of a former guest of this podcast, Richard Lapper, whose appearance you can listen to here.

* Foreign investment in Latin America has come a long way from investing in railways in Patagonia.

* Why Mexico has failed to achieve the same level of economic success as Brazil.

* "Poor Mexico, so far from God, so close to the United States."

* Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) could have been a Chavez or a Lula. Which one was he ultimately?

* John’s views on prediction markets.

* Sorry to inform you, but unfortunately, we still need polls.

* How the 1549-1550 conclave was perhaps the first example of insider trading in prediction markets.

* Covering George Soros and “Black Wednesday".

* The case for Mexican macroeconomics combined with Brazilian microeconomics.

* The darks days of Maracanã stadium.

* And much more!

John’s books, ‘The Victim’s Fortunes’ and ‘The Fearful Rise of Markets’, are available here.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* The Path to The Planalto #02. Read it now.

* Will ‘Tight Washout Theory’ survive?

* Key battlegrounds in Minas Gerais and São Paulo seem to be shifting in Flávio’s favor. Will it be enough to win?

* Evaluating the possibilities of a flip between the first and second rounds.

* Flávio’s effectiveness in on-the-ground campaigning.

* While Nikolas Ferreira shepherds the base, Flávio turns his attention to presenting a safe pair of hands

* Social media campaigning is a dying force in Brazilian politics.

* Less Twitter beefs; more polls.

* Podcasts are also irrelevant in politics. Except for this one, of course.

* Old Testament Lula makes a brief appearance on the campaign trail.

* The case against attributing wild events to election outcomes.

* Will there be a late September surprise?

* Lula heads to New York for the UN General Assembly.

* “It’s about Montes Claros, not Manhattan.”

* When Lula goes on Amanpour, to whom exactly is he speaking?

* Vying for the Rory Stewart endorsement.

* Exchanging shirts with Mamdani.

* Is there any chance of a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro before the first round?

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Podgecaste Brazil is the show where we talk about politics, predictions, and Brazil. So in that spirit, we decided to lay out a swathe of predictions for the upcoming election, looking at everything from senate and gubernatorial race outcomes to a state-by-state breakdown at the presidential level.

A full write-up of these predictions, with some minor, perhaps even major, adjustments for circumstances, will be available shortly on our Substack (podgecaste.substack.com).

We also finish the episodes with some musings on what the next four years might hold in store for the winners, and how the Brazilian electoral landscape may look in 2030.

Read our article on the 2018 and 2022 results here.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

As Brazil’s 2026 election campaign officially gets underway, we took some time on a tie-loosening Tuesday to discuss:

* Brazil is a conservative country, but is there any polling evidence to suggest that is working in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favor?

* The Partido Liberal’s struggle to form meaningful alliances in key battelgrounds.

* “Barrels of beer for me; warm Coke Zero for thee.”

* It’s never a good sign when you don’t get your VP pick.

* Has Lula’s national sovereignty push flopped as a campaign strategy?

* Lula sacrifices his Marco to save his Trump.

* One too many impressions of Lula as Trump.

* What’s going on with the lineup for the debates?

* The most interesting gubernatorial races to watch.

* The collapse of free-market advocacy in Brazilian politics.

* An Andy Burnham sidebar.

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

As Brazil faces another round of tariffs from the Trump administration, we discuss:

* Reflections on Brazil’s national mood during the World Cup.

* To the extent one exists, what is the game plan here?

* How Trump changed the definition of the word ‘tariff’ (which is the most beautiful word in the dictionary, by the way).

* Is the PIX payment system really at risk?

* Mandating American Express payments would be a more effective approach.

* Flávio’s campaign is collapsing, but would anyone else be doing any better?

* Full AI slop campaign mode is upon us.

* How no policy and no existentialism favors Lula.

* The Tight Washout Theory.

* Daniel Ortega cancels “elections” in Nicaragua.

* What’s Nicolás Maduro up to these days?

* Gustavo Petro wants Colombia’s election OVERTURNED.

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* Felipe’s early life as the son of a Brazilian diplomat.

* Rediscovering his home country as an adult.

* Passing Brazil’s toughest public-service entrance exam.

* Journey to academia.

* The evolution of Oxford University’s Latin American Studies Department.

* Felipe’s assessment of why Brazilian drug policy has failed on its own terms.

* Why Brazilian drug policy hardened over years of ‘progressive’ PT government.

* How seriously is the terrorist designation of Brazil’s largest criminal organizations being taken by the country’s authorities?

* The Latin American Left’s ‘own goal’ in its approach to combating organized crime.

* Will the Donroe Doctrine lead to direct intervention in Brazil?

* Brazil’s potential paths to drug legalization.

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* From Sheffield to covering the Sandinistas.

* The failures of the far left against Latin America’s military dictatorships.

* “Running to stand still.”

* Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the Plano Real.

* Socialist idealism meets capitalist pragmatism.

* Brazil’s victims and beneficiaries of circumstance.

* A look into Lula’s psychology.

* No time for the ideological left.

* What BRICS means for Brazil.

* Lula’s relationship with Trump.

* The collapse of Brazil’s unionized working class.

* PT’s shift to a lobby for pensioners and the public sector.

* No time for the Lava Jato rabbit hole.

* Was Lula the only candidate who could have beaten Bolsonaro in 2022?

* Lula’s chances of winning amidst high(ish) rejection rates.

* The current state of Brazil’s economy.

* And much more!

Richard’s latest book, ‘‘Lula! The Man, The Myth and a Dream of Latin America’’ is available here. We also recommend checking out his other title, ‘Beef, Bible and Bullets: Brazil in the Age of Bolsonaro’, which you can find here.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* A (very belated) recap on the Trump and Lula showdown.

* Flávio Bolsonaro goes to Washington.

* “It’s terror, but not that kind of terror.”

* Lula’s case for national sovereignty.

* Getting in the mind of the Uber driver voter.

* Will Flávio achieve his father’s dream of nationalizing the crime debate?

* Ciro Gomes: Brazilian Batman.

* A soundbite, a screenplay, and a scandal.

* A reading of Dark Horse: coming soon (?)

* Flávio’s polling fallout isn’t nearly as bad as it seems.

* “We have decided not grant you a third way. Please try again in four years.”

* Renan Santos vs “I dunno”. Who will win?

* The dichotomy of Lula’s third (and maybe fourth) term.

* The trepidations of treason.

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com

Discussed:

* Big Brother Brasil has a winner.

* Will Flávio’s bad tweets get him disqualified from the race?

* Glenn Greenwald’s takes on the Supreme Court.

* Romeu Zema becomes the muppets latest showrunner.

* The impossible politics of pardons Jan 8 and attempted coup plot.

* The Path to the Planalto #01 - read it now.

* How Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election.

* Lula’s 45% trap becomes a safe haven.

* The curse of viralatismo for right-wing politicians in Brazil.

* “Lula in 2022 was closer to Trump in 2016 than Bolsonaro in 2018.”

* The misread of imposing American polarization onto Brazil.

* Does Flávio have a Trump card in 2026?

* And much more!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podgecaste.substack.com