Politics Is Everything

This week, Ohio voters rejected a Republican-led measure that would have increased the threshold required to change the state's constitution. Significantly, more than three million voters turned out for the special election, which is about 75% of 2022 midterm turnout in the state. More than 640,000 people voted early — a number that could still rise from late-arriving mail ballots — outpacing overall turnout for a 2022 August special election in the state. The struggle over Issue 1 drew more than $35 million in spending, with most of the funding coming from out-of-state groups. The whole point of this process was to erect an impassable barrier in front of a looming constitutional amendment on the ballot in November 2023 that would enshrine reproductive rights protections into the state constitution. Issue 1 would have made it much harder for redistricting reformers to successfully present a constitutional amendment to voters, perhaps in 2024, to establish a new, independent redistricting system in Ohio, which Republicans would oppose.

Links in this episode:

• Ohio's Issue 1 Smackdown: The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success

In this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses his new analysis of how the most populous vs. least populous counties in the United States have voted in recent presidential elections. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also discuss the third indictment of former president Donald J. Trump and implications for the 2024 presidential election.

Links in this episode:

• How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One

Will the number of split partisan results between presidential and gubernatorial outcomes continue to decline in 2024? Kyle Kondik discusses the dwindling crossover governorships. We also look at "beer track vs. wine track" Republican voters, and how both tracks remain supportive of the former president in the primary despite his weak spots, with the other candidates trying to claw away from DeSantis who remains distant second.

Carah Ong Whaley and Skylar Tessler also talk with Nora Neus, Emmy nominated producer, writer, freelance journalist and author of 24 Hours in Charlottesville: An Oral History of the Stand Against White Supremacy. Neus is an alumna of the University of Virginia and field-produced Anderson Cooper's coverage of the 2017 white nationalist riot in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Links in this episode:

• Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2023
• The Dwindling Crossover Governorships
• 24 Hours in Charlottesville: An Oral History of the Stand Against White Supremacy

In the new Center for Politics Crystal Ball ratings for the 2024 presidential election, Arizona is just one of four initial toss-up states. In this episode, Carah Ong Whaley and Skylar Tessler talk with Thom Reilly, co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University, about a new survey of Arizonans and their views about elections and election systems.

Links in this episode:

Consensus and Concern in Arizona's Hot Political Climate: Voter Attitudes About Elections

A hot-off-the-press Pew Research Center report finds that Latino/a/x voters continued to support Democrats in 2022, but by a much smaller margin than in 2018. However, Latino/a/x voters were most likely to have not voted in any of the most recent three general elections than other demographic groups. In this episode, we talk with Mark Hugo Lopez, director of race and ethnicity research at Pew Research Center, about issues that matter to Latino/a/x voters and what candidates and campaigns can do to reach the Latino/a/x population. He also discusses the broader turnout story of the 2022 midterm elections.

Links in this episode:

• Republican Gains in 2022 Midterms Driven Mostly by Turnout Advantage
• The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024
• Equis Research 2022 Post Mortem

This week, the Center for Politics published its first Electoral College ratings for the 2024 presidential election on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. As it stands now, it looks like fewer states than ever could pick the next president. In this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses why we should expect a narrow but competitive election in 2024.

Links in this episode:

• Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election
• How the Other Half Votes: The Southwest

The coverage of the Moore v. Harper Supreme Court case has primarily focused on its implications for partisan gerrymandering. But the ruling also has significant implications for racial gerrymandering. Mitchell D. Brown, Senior Counsel for the Voting Rights Section of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, one of the organizations involved in Moore v. Harper, joins us to discuss why checks and balances on state legislative activity are critical to safeguarding the rights of Black voters.

Links in this episode:

• Moore v. Harper
• Shelby v. Holder
• Gonidakis v. Ohio Redistricting Commission
• Allen v. Milligan
• Brooks v. Abbott
• Stephenson v. Bartlett
• The Purcell Principle: An Explainer from Democracy Docket

Becky Harper, the named plaintiff in Moore vs. Harper, is a citizen-activist who cares deeply about free and fair elections. She joins us to tell her story about the journey to the Supreme Court and what lies ahead for voting rights and representation.

In a 6-3 ruling in the case Moore v. Harper issued June 27, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected an extreme version of the so-called "independent state legislature" theory that posed serious challenges for the conduct of elections and would have allowed state legislatures to engage in election subversion (something that was attempted in the 2020 election). In its opinion, the Supreme Court upheld the long-running interpretation of the term "Legislature" in the Elections Clause in Article I, Section IV, Clause 1 and in the Presidential Electors Clause in Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution, making clear that state legislatures do not wield free floating power in the conduct of elections and that their power must be understood in the context of the system of state government, including judicial review. The court also affirmed its 2015 ruling in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission that states legislatures do not violate this interpretation when they use voter initiatives to create independent redistricting commissions to draw congressional lines.

Rebecca Harper is a citizen-activist who cares deeply about free and fair elections. She was the named plaintiff in Moore vs. Harper and in the two prior cases that led to Moore v Harper: Harper v Hall, and Harper v Lewis.

Links in this episode:

• Moore v. Harper
• Harper v. Hall
• Harper v. Lewis
• Rucho v. Common Cause
• Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission

June is Alzheimer's & Brain Awareness Month and our guests for this episode have personal and professional experience with Alzheimer's Disease. Luke Albee worked in the U.S. Senate for 27 years, including as a chief of staff for both Senators Patrick Leahy (VT) and Mark Warner (VA). Karen Garner is the Advocacy Manager for the Alzheimer's Association for all of Virginia. Co-hosting this episode is Dr. David Goldberg, Assistant Clinical Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Links in this episode:

• Alzheimer's Association
• UVA Memory and Aging Care Clinic (MACC)
• Missing Jim
• Executive Order on Increasing Access to High-Quality Care and Supporting Caregivers
• A lifetime of racism makes Alzheimer's more common in Black Americans
• Social Determinants of Health
• What Does the New Congress Mean for Family Policy?

The June 20, 2023 primary elections in Virginia were the first time voters encountered the state's new electoral maps, which were drawn under supervision of the Supreme Court of Virginia after a bipartisan panel appointed by the legislature failed to reach agreement. Kyle Kondik, J. Miles Coleman and Carah Ong Whaley discuss turnover, turnout, fundraising, key issues and what to watch in the general election later this year.