Politics Is Everything

Joel K. Goldstein, a vice presidency scholar at St. Louis University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss lessons from history on vice presidential selection. Despite headlines quick to suggest that the Republican primary debates are an audition to Donald Trump's running mate, history suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. They also discuss challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Links in this episode:

• 2024 GOP Rivals Teaming Up on the Ticket? Don't Bet on It

Matt Hodges, Executive Director of Zinc Labs at the Zinc Collective, joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Nelsen (UVA '25) to discuss the role of technology in campaigns and elections and what lawmakers should consider in frameworks governing the use of tech tools, including Generative Artificial Intelligence.

Also in this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses his new analysis of how the 2024 election might be historic in that we could have a pair of presidential candidates who sweep their party nominating contests, even in spite of their weaknesses and liabilities.

Links in this episode:

• Matt Hodges
• Zinc Collective
• Quiller
• Higher Grounds Labs
• Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley share takeaways from the second Republican presidential primary debate, held on September 27, 2023 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. They also talk about new analysis on the Crystal Ball by Carah and Kylie Holzman (UVA '26) about why the United States hasn't had a woman president.

Links in this episode:

• Why Haven't We Had A Woman President?

Virginia is one of just four states — Louisiana, New Jersey, and Mississippi are the others — that hold state legislative elections in odd-numbered years. It's entirely plausible that following the 2023 elections, Virginia could join Georgia and New Hampshire as states that have one-party state government that is different from the party that won the state in the most recent presidential election. Since Spring, Virginians' ratings of the Governor and of the president have been relatively stable - 51% of Virginians approve of the way Youngkin is handling his job as governor and 40% approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president. In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss new analyses on Sabato's Crystal Ball regarding what's at stake in the Virginia legislative elections.

David Sirota, founder and editor-in-chief of The Lever, also joins Center for Politics interns Eli Weinger and Abigail Ronsonet to talk about the role of big money in politics, Biden's chances for reelection in 2024 and the crisis amongst American men.

Links in this episode:

• The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature
• The Lever

"The QUESTION CIRCULATING around Silicon Valley isn't if such a scenario is worth it, even with a 1 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANNIHILATION," writes Nick Bilton in Vanity Fair, "but rather, if it is really such a bad thing if we build a machine that CHANGES HUMAN LIFE AS WE KNOW IT." Bilton joins us to share his research on Artificial Intelligence and its implications for politics and society.

Nick Bilton is a special correspondent at Vanity Fair, and his new article is: Artificial Intelligence May Be Humanity's Most Ingenious Invention—And Its Last? at VanityFair.com and in Vanity Fair's October issue, also on newsstands as of September 19.

In this episode, Kyle and Carah talk with Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson about his new analysis on "excess seats" in state legislatures as well as House Republicans' recently-announced impeachment inquiry into President Biden, his journalism career with PolitiFact, and much more.

Louis Jacobson is the senior correspondent with PolitiFact. Previously, he served as deputy editor of Roll Call and as founding editor of its legislative wire service, CongressNow. Earlier, he spent more than a decade covering politics, policy, Congress and lobbying for National Journal magazine. He is senior author of the 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 editions of The Almanac of American Politics.

Links in this episode:

• Politifact articles by Louis Jacobson
• The Republicans' 'Excess Seat' Edge in State Legislatures
• The Almanac of American Politics

In this episode, Grace Panetta, a political reporter at The 19th, joins Kyle Kondik, Carah Ong Whaley and Kylie Holzman to discuss several key issues for the 2024 election, including media coverage of women candidates, voter turnout, dramatic shifts in election law landscape, and ongoing threats to democracy posed by election denialism.

Also, in this episode, Kyle discusses his new analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball about how the most populous counties versus the least populous counties have voted in presidential elections from 1996-2020. In 1996, Bill Clinton won both the most (by 15.7 percentage points) and least populous counties (1.8 point margin). That means the difference between the two was 13.9 points. By 2020, the gap between the most vs. least populous counties was 39.2 points.

Links in this episode

• How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two by Kyle Kondik
• The 19th articles by Grace Panetta
• Nikki Haley's Time for Choosing by Tim Alberta
• The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024

On August 23, 2023, Republican candidates addressed questions on a range of issues facing the nation including the economy, abortion rights, and support for former President Trump even as he faces several indictments in the first presidential primary debate hosted by Fox News. Just 30 minutes into the debate, Chris LaCivita, a political consultant with the Trump campaign said the former president made the right decision to not participate and instead do his own interview with Tucker Carlson that was streamed on X (former Twitter).

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the first Republican presidential primary debate, Donald Trump's interview and what we can glean about the state of the Republican Party and issues facing the nation.

Links in this episode:

• Explaining Republican Loyalty to Trump: The Crucial Role of Negative Partisanship
• Republicans view Reagan, Trump as best recent presidents
• Donald Trump is most Republicans' first-choice candidate
• Younger evangelicals in the U.S. are more concerned than their elders about climate change
• Oliver Anthony - Rich Men North Of Richmond

Since SCOTUS 2022 Dobbs ruling, seven states - California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Ohio and Vermont - have voted on ballot measures that relate directly or indirectly to reproductive rights. Reproductive rights advocates have come out on the winning side in all seven. J. Miles Coleman discusses the first installment of his analysis on how these initiatives fared relative to other elections in Kansas, Michigan and Ohio.

Dr. Craig Holman of Public Citizen also joins Carah Ong Whaley, Marina George and Keshav Hajarnavis to discuss a new public comment opportunity to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on amending regulations to include deliberately deceptive Artificial Intelligence in campaign ads.

Links in this episode:

• · The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One
• · Comments sought on amending regulation to include deliberately deceptive Artificial Intelligence in campaign ads

A new generation of generative artificial intelligence heralds a new era of campaigns and elections with the potential for disrupting democratic institutions and processes. "What we are concerned about is the weaponization of information," says Representative Yvette Clarke (D-New York-9), who joins Carah Ong Whaley, Marina George and Keoni Vega to discuss the promise and perils of Gen AI and efforts in Congress to set up guardrails. "I'm not content with where we are. I feel an urgency to get us to where we need to be. We have the knowledge and understanding, but we don't have the regulatory regime that truly protects the American people."

Links in this episode:

• H.R. 3044: REAL Political Advertisements Act / S.1596 - REAL Political Advertisements Act
• Statement on Biden-Harris Administration Securing Voluntary Risk Commitments from Leading AI Companies
• Huster Magazine, Inc. V Falwell
• Algorithmic Accountability Act