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South Africa's rand slipped and the country's stocks and bonds came under pressure on Thursday after projections showed the governing African National Congress was set to lose its parliamentary majority in this week's election.

At 11:40 pm, the rand traded at 18.6400 against the dollar, around 1% weaker than its previous close. The currency is down around 2% since the start of the year.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index was down nearly 2% compared to a 1.3% decline across wider emerging markets, while both local and international bonds also came under pressure.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research projected that the ANC would get 42% of the national vote, while broadcaster eNCA estimated the ANC would get around 45% of the vote.

So far, the election commission has only released results from just over 16% of polling stations. Those partial results put the ANC at 42.5% of the vote, the biggest opposition party Democratic Alliance at 25.7% and radical leftists the Economic Freedom Fighters at 8.5%.

If the final results were to resemble the early picture, the ANC would be forced to make a deal with one, or more, other parties to govern - a situation that could lead to unprecedented political volatility in the coming weeks or months.

Early results pointed to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections, "increasing the chances that it will need to rely on one of the larger opposition parties to form the next government," Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.

That could introduce "potentially more radical policy outcomes," Tuvey added.

South Africa's government bonds also felt the pressure. Yields on the domestic 10-year benchmark spiked as high as 10.743% - levels last seen in late April - before pulling back to 10.655%, LSEG data showed.

Among international dollar bonds, the longer-dated maturities slipped nearly 1 cent in early trading to hit four weeks lows before retracing some of the losses. By 09:45 GMT, the 2052 bond traded at 86.852 cents, Tradeweb data showed.

The cost of insuring exposure to the country's debt rose. Five-year credit default swaps climbed by 3 basis points from Wednesday's close to 230 bps, the highest level in a month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As the counting process unfolds, Government Communication and Information System acting director-general Nomonde Mnukwa has on Thursday urged the public to refrain from sharing information in the form of pictures and videos that seek to declare elections results or incite violence pertaining to elections results.

Mnukwa explained that election results will be announced officially by the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa, as the body that is legally mandated to announce elections results, she said.

South Africans voted on Wednesday in what has been termed the most crucial election the country has held since the transition to democracy, with the governing African National Congress widely expected to lose its majority.

Government noted that successfully holding the election was a clear sign that South Africa had concluded another milestone in its democratic journey with the election characterised by high voter turnout, which, she said, affirmed that citizens were exercising their fundamental Constitutional responsibility of voting.

She added that this election, characterised by a visibly high level of participation, coinciding as it did with the celebrations of 30 years of freedom and democracy, affirmed the fundamental constitutional responsibility of voting as a true symbol representing the voice of the nation.

Mnukwa said the conduct of the electorate during this process had been exemplary, which was a testament to the founding principles of the country's democracy and a reflection of a nation acknowledged globally as carrying out "regular, credible electoral" processes since 1994.

She noted that the active participation of citizens was indeed a cornerstone of the country's democratic process, which she said would go a long way in building a vibrant and representative nation.

Mnukwa added that the voting process by the IEC across all correctional services facilities concluded without significant issues.

"…this is an important milestone for a democratic country, ensuring that eligible voters, including the incarcerated, participate in the electoral process. The synergy amongst correctional officials in preparing inmates and ushering them to the voting stations made it possible for the IEC to guarantee a seamless and secure voting experience for inmates," she added.

Mnukwa noted that since the dawn of democracy, South Africa's general elections had been viewed as "free and fair" by domestic and international observers, and this she said served as encouragement for the country to continue to uphold the integrity of the electoral processes.

Government acknowledged the invaluable contributions of community leaders, elections officials, volunteers, and all who played various roles in facilitating successful elections.

She highlighted that the election was also marked by a record number of political parties, as well as independent candidates for the first time, which she said was a reflection of the country's maturing multiparty democracy.

"The cooperation by all political parties is a demonstration of the collective spirit of ensuring that all citizens exercise their democratic right to vote," she said.

Mnukwa said government reiterated that there would be no power vacuum on the country's journey to the establishment of the seventh democratic administration, adding that whilst the country awaits the outcomes of the 2024 national and provincial elections, government will continue to execute its constitutional mandate of providing services to all South Africans.

The African National Congress looked set on Thursday to lose the parliamentary majority it has held for 30 years, as partial election results suggested it would need a partner to stay in power - a first in South Africa's post-apartheid history.

If the final results confirm the loss of its majority, the ANC will be forced to make a deal with one or more other parties to govern - a situation that could lead to political volatility in the coming weeks or months.

"There will be checks and balances on the ANC power, but the ultimate risk is that the infighting could make governance ineffective," said Simon Harvey, head of foreign exchange analysis at Monex Europe.

With results in from 20.4%% of polling stations, the ANC's share of the vote in Wednesday's election stood at 43.4%, with the pro-business Democratic Alliance on 24.8%, data from the electoral commission showed on Thursday.

The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters party was on 8.8%, while uMkhonto we Sizwe, a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, was snapping at its heels on 8.1%, with support concentrated in Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal.

Pollsters and two of the country's three main broadcasters were predicting that the final results would confirm that the ANC - which won 57.5% of the vote in the previous election in 2019 - has lost its majority.

While early results skew towards rural areas where the ANC is relatively strong, results from urban centres where it is weaker build up later.

"I don't think it's likely for the ANC to reach a majority," said pollster Reza Omar of Citizen Surveys.

The ANC has won national elections held every five years since the landmark 1994 election, which marked the end of white minority rule and the ascent of Nelson Mandela as president.

But since those heady days the ANC's support has declined because of disillusionment over issues such as high unemployment and crime, frequent power blackouts and corruption.

Under South Africa's constitution, the newly elected National Assembly will choose the next president. With the ANC still on course to be the largest party, that is likely to be its leader Cyril Ramaphosa, the incumbent.

However, a poor showing could make him vulnerable to a leadership challenge from within party ranks, whether in the immediate future or at some point during his term.

Which of the opposition parties the ANC may seek out as a potential coalition partner was the subject of intense speculation at the results centre in Midrand, north of Johannesburg.

"That is the million-dollar question hanging around the floor at this moment," said Susan Booysen, research director at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, a think-tank.

She said there was no obvious path for the ANC, which liked neither the EFF nor MK despite some policy similarities. Both are led by former ANC figures who have fallen out with the ruling party's leadership.

The ANC may reach out to the DA, but that could prove a bumpy ride as the parties are far apart on policy and fiercely antagonistic.

RISK OF GRIDLOCK

The ruling party issued a statement that gave little away.

"The ANC looks forward to a clear mandate from voters to continue the work of transforming South Africa," it said.

Zuma's MK, in contrast, adopted a triumphant tone, slamming what it called "Ramaphosa's dismal regime" and setting out its own policy stall, which echoed some of the goals the ANC pursued during Zuma's term as president.

"The MK party remains committed to honouring your trust and working tirelessly to ensure that the vision of free education, expropriation of land, job creation, poverty eradication, youth entrepreneurship and the ushering in of a new Constitution ... becomes a reality for all South Africans," it said.

Zuma was forced to quit as president in 2018 after a string of scandals and has since fallen out with the ANC leadership, leading him to throw his weight behind MK. The party, named after the ANC's armed wing from the apartheid era, appeared t...

Ahead of the 2024 elections on Wednesday, Amnesty International South Africa urged the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa, political parties, candidates and authorities to ensure the 2024 general elections are free and fair and that all eligible voters are given the opportunity to cast their ballot.

Amnesty International stressed the need to uphold human rights during elections.

"…this includes the right to freedom of expression, dignity and safety. There must be no space for fear and intimidation of voters during the election and the safety and security of everyone, no matter who they are, must be respected before, during and after elections," said Amnesty International South Africa executive director Shenilla Mohamed.

Amnesty International is encouraging citizens to consider human rights when they make their mark on Wednesday, expressing disappointment that not more political parties and candidates signed the pledge to uphold human rights.

Last month Amnesty International released its Human Rights Manifesto focusing on 10 issues crucial for political parties and candidates to commit to, and ensure that human rights were upheld.

The manifesto was sent to political parties and independent candidates along with a request for them to sign a pledge, outlining their [political parties and independent candidates'] commitment to upholding human rights if elected.

She noted that to date four political parties and one independent candidate had signed the pledge.

Mohamed highlighted that human rights were universal principles that transcended politics and offered a roadmap to a better future.

She added that in order for these human rights to be realised, the electorate could use their power at the ballot to ensure that political parties and candidates standing for office did their part to ensure that the government met its human rights obligations domestically, used its influence to advance human rights globally, and engaged other governments to do the same.

She noted that political will and a commitment were needed to making human rights a reality.

"While we are calling on political parties to sign the pledge, we are also calling on citizens, who are eligible and are registered to vote, to take a pledge to vote for human rights and to hold political parties and candidates accountable ahead, during and after the elections. Close to 10 000 people have taken the pledge," said Mohamed.

She said those who were voted into power after these elections must serve the people, stop the politicking and deliver on human rights obligations.

The South African rand was stable in early trading on Tuesday, against a weaker dollar and ahead of a national election on Wednesday which could see the ruling party lose its majority for the first time in 30 years.

At 07:09 GMT, the rand traded at 18.3725 against the dollar, around 0.1% stronger than its previous close.

The dollar last traded around 0.09% weaker against a basket of global currencies.

"The ZAR has rebounded slightly amid a weaker USD, with investors cautious ahead of key inflation reports (in the US) and the upcoming elections (in South Africa)," said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

"The rand is likely to tread water during the course of the day ahead of tomorrow's elections, as markets close out positions in the rand ahead and keep them to a bare minimum."

On Wednesday, South Africans will vote in national and provincial elections, with polls suggesting the governing African National Congress (ANC) could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994.

This outcome would force the ANC into a coalition to maintain governing power.

Results are expected to start trickling in late on Wednesday, and markets will likely take direction as the results become clearer into the second half of the week.

"Investors are keenly watching for a stable coalition outcome to avoid ideological swings, especially towards populist parties, which could stabilise South African financial markets," Cilliers added.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly weaker in early deals, with the yield up 1.5 basis points to 10.575%.

President Cyril Ramaphosa says government is confident that the 2024 election will take place under conditions of peace, safety and tolerance, and that it will be free and fair.

More than 27-million registered voters will have an opportunity to choose the party or candidate of their choice on Wednesday.

South African voters will join about 1.5-billion people - more than half the world's voting-eligible population - who will be casting their votes this year in elections in more than 80 countries around the world.

"South Africa's elections have taken place without major incident for the past 30 years. Once again, we have every confidence that this election will take place under conditions of peace, safety and tolerance, and that it will be free and fair," said Ramaphosa.

He highlighted that the integrity of the country's elections was testament to the high regard in which South Africans held their hard-won right to vote.

"…it is an affirmation that no matter what our political differences are, when it comes to safeguarding our democracy, we are prepared to put these differences aside for the common good," he explained.

He noted that holding free, fair and peaceful elections was a barometer of the good health of the country's democracy.

"As we cast our votes on Wednesday, let us, in the words of our Constitution, honour those who suffered for justice and freedom in our land, respect those who have worked to build and develop our country, and believe that South Africa belongs to all who live in it, united in our diversity," said Ramaphosa.

Meanwhile, acting speaker of the National Assembly Lechesa Tsenoli, and National Council of Provinces chairperson Amos Masondo encouraged all registered voters to exercise their right to vote, as it was crucial for shaping the future of the nation.

Parliament noted that the right to vote was an important political right enshrined in the Bill of Rights.

"It is a key component of our democratic society as it allows citizens to participate in the political process and have a say in who governs them. This year's elections come as our country celebrates 30 years of democracy and a democratic Parliament," it said.

Parliament explained that by participating in the electoral process, citizens ensured that the country's democracy continued to evolve and address the needs and aspirations of all citizens.

"…your vote is your voice - use it to secure a brighter future for yourself and generations to come. Your vote is your only opportunity to choose who will represent you. Do not let others decide your future for you. Be part of the decision," it said.

As the legislative authority of the country's democratic republic, Tsenoli explained that Parliament must ensure a government by the people, under the Constitution.

He highlighted that over the last 30 years, Parliament has repealed apartheid laws and passed progressive laws to improve the lives of all South Africans.

He said preparations were well underway to seamlessly integrate newly elected members, ensuring a smooth transition to the seventh parliamentary term.

South Africans will vote on Wednesday with widespread anger over power cuts, joblessness and corruption threatening to end the dominance of the African National Congress thirty years after Nelson Mandela led it into power.

At no point since world media beamed iconic images of Black South African voters queueing to cast ballots for the first time following the end of white-minority rule has the ANC looked so likely to lose its parliamentary majority.

Polls suggest the ANC's share of the vote could fall as low as 40%, compared with 57.5% in 2019, which would force the party into a wobbly coalition with rivals - and potentially expose President Cyril Ramaphosa to a leadership challenge.

Yet a survey released earlier this week by Afrobarometer suggested a third of voters were undecided, making this poll the most unpredictable in South Africa's democratic history.

Nicole Beardsworth, politics researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand, sees the ANC getting "a bit of a bump" on the day, confounding the worst predictions - especially with Ramaphosa's introduction this month of popular measures such as a national health insurance law and proposed basic income grant.

"But I don't think we're going to see the ANC get over 50%," she said. "They're ... going to have negotiate a coalition. The big question is: with whom?"

Much will depend on how well or badly they do, she said. A small margin would enable them to do a deal with a marginal party with limited leverage to make significant demands.

Bigger losses could mean a coalition with the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters - a prospect that makes business leaders and South Africa's privileged white minority shudder - or with several small parties that could thwart decision-making.

Yet some think punishment at the polls could be a catalyst for the ANC to clean itself up: "A different party might come out of it," independent analyst Ralph Mathekga said.

ACHIEVEMENTS AND FAILURES

For three decades the ANC has traded off its legacy of freeing the Black majority from white rulers whose apartheid system took their land, kept them poor and uneducated, and forbade them to visit most of the country except to clean houses or dig gold mines.

In its early years in government, it began reversing these inequities - bringing electricity, water and half-decent housing to millions.

But corruption and incompetence have eroded some of those gains. State power provider Eskom's creaking coal-fired power stations haven't kept up with demand, causing frequent blackouts, while roads, sewage treatment plants and schools rot from the inside. A third of South Africans are jobless.

"I don't see what I'm voting for. We don't have roads (or decent) houses," Zinhle Nyakenye, 31 and unemployed, told Reuters in Mandela's home town of Qunu, as she fetched water for household use from a stream.

Corruption has spread, although a strong rule of law - one of the ANC's most enduring legacies - has resulted in legal proceedings against powerful people such as ex-president Jacob Zuma, while the parliamentary speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula resigned last month. Both deny wrongdoing.

Zuma in December created a breakaway party called uMkhonto we Sizwe that could take votes from the ANC in its eastern Zulu heartlands. It may also stir up trouble if Zuma's supporters - who rioted and looted for days when he was arrested for contempt of court in July 2021 - don't like the results.

But South Africa's robust legal system also means rules for coalition building are clear, even if the players have never done it, said Chatham House's Chris Vandome.

"South Africa's system was designed so that political parties in a very fractured country could work together," Vandome said. "It was never designed for a dominant party to maintain absolute control ... for 30 years."

South Africa's Julius Malema, who quit the ruling African National Congress to form a radical leftist party, could potentially become a kingmaker or even deputy president if the ANC loses its majority in Wednesday's election as polls suggest.

The prospect of the ANC co-opting Malema and his Economic Freedom Fighters to stay in power strikes fear into investors and the white upper-middle class he rails against.

The EFF's promises to nationalise the country's gold and platinum mines and seize land from white farmers are among proposals they fear threaten not just their privileges but also Africa's most industrialised economy.

Malema's pledge to redress persistent racial and economic disparities resonates with his constituents which include tens of thousands of unemployed, disenfranchised urban Black youths and middle class students struggling to afford fees or graduates unable to find decent jobs in a stagnant economy.

The ANC liberated Black South Africans from white minority rule, but the widespread prosperity it promised three decades ago has yet to materialise. Meanwhile the very richest - both Black and white - have seen their share of the wealth expand.

A third of South Africans, including many Black voters with college degrees, are out of work.

"The EFF points out accurately ... that we haven't solved the racial issue in this country," Steven Friedman, director of South Africa's Centre for the Study of Democracy, said.

Yet, he added that Malema had failed to broaden the party's appeal to those in extreme poverty in rural areas.

The EFF, reminiscent of socialist movements of the past with its trademark red shirts and berets, captured more than 10% of the vote in national polls in 2019 and 2021 local ones.

However, Malema's wealth and lifestyle have attracted criticism from political rivals who deride his penchant for flashy cars, gold watches, champagne and luxury mansions in leafy suburbs. He sold one such mansion, complete with a cinema and a cigar lounge to pay off $1-million in tax arrears.

He has also faced allegations of corruption, which he denies. In 2015, a court threw out money laundering charges against him relating to government contracts.

'SOWING DIVISION'

At a late 2020 rally in Senekal, in the largely agrarian Free State province, dozens of Malema's Black supporters in red shirts were facing off with a small group of white supremacists, some donning apartheid-era army uniforms.

The tension was palpable until an EFF security guard called over one of the white counter-protestors with a friendly gesture. After talking, each then faced their side and made calming hand signals, defusing the row.

It was typical of Malema's ability to turn up the heat on the country's simmering racial and class tensions without them boiling over.

Born the son of a domestic worker for an Indian family in Limpopo, north of Johannesburg, Malema was politically active from a young age and rose through the ranks to ANC Youth League president in 2008.

He founded his breakaway party after the ruling ANC suspended him as youth leader in 2011 for "sowing division".

While his followers affectionately call him "Juju" - short for Julius - Malema's detractors prefer names like "firebrand", "militant" "clown" or "populist".

Yet in a nation in which the main populist issue is hostility towards migrants from other African countries, his party is the only one that seeks to repeal policies that hinder the free movement of Africans.

"The EFF is swimming against the tide when it comes to immigration," Chris Ogunmodede, analyst and editor of World Politics Review, said. "(It) will likely lose out (on) many votes it might otherwise get."

Although Malema briefly flirted with xenophobia in January 2022, when he announced visits to restaurants to check they were not employing too many foreigners, he never repeated the stunt.

President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed the country's readiness to hold the 2024 national and provincial elections, calling on all parties, candidates, supporters and every South African to refrain from any action that could interfere with the due electoral process.

The Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa will administer the special votes expected to be cast on Monday and Tuesday, ahead of election day on Wednesday.

The IEC said more than 1.6-million South Africans have been approved to vote during the special votes. Some 624 593 voters are expected be visited by IEC staff with the rest expected to visit their voting stations.

Ramaphosa expressed concerns at reports that came out on Sunday about the obstruction of election activities, including unlawful entry at IEC storage sites in KwaZulu-Natal.

"Regardless of the outcome, let this election further entrench our democracy and strengthen our commitment to uphold it," he said.

He commended the IEC for the "impressive work" they have undertaken in preparation for these elections.

"As a country, we have once again witnessed the capabilities of the IEC - in the successful voter registration weekends, in the registration of parties and candidates, in the preparation of ballot papers, in the organisation of overseas voting, and in the diligent application of our electoral laws," he said.

Ramaphosa said citizens expect this election to be held in conditions of "peace and stability, to be free and to be fair."

He noted that the country's elections since 1994 has been possible through the IEC's integrity, saying this has been made possible not only by the work and conduct of the IEC, but also by the presence of party agents and independent observers.

Ramaphosa said the involvement of party agents gives people confidence that there is effective oversight of all aspects of the electoral process.

"…through the presence of local and international observers we are able to satisfy ourselves that our elections conform not only to our own laws, but also to internationally accepted standards of freeness and fairness," he explained.

He highlighted that law enforcement agencies and security services have been deployed throughout the country to ensure that there are no disturbances or disruptions to the election process.

Ramaphosa noted that over the course of the last few months, many different parties and candidates have vigorously and enthusiastically campaigned for votes.

He said while the contestation has been robust and has, at times, become heated, campaigning has been "peaceful and free of intimidation".

He commended all parties that have upheld the Electoral Code of Conduct and that have ensured that their supporters adhere to the democratic principles that have long characterised the country's elections.

South Africa's former president Jacob Zuma said on Thursday that he will fight for his rights, after the country's top court ruled that he was not eligible to run for parliament in next week's election.

The constitutional court ruled on Monday that Zuma's 15-month jail sentence for contempt of court in 2021 disqualified him from standing in the May 29 vote, as the constitution prohibits anyone given a prison sentence of 12 months or longer from holding a parliamentary seat.

Decisions of the constitutional court cannot be overruled.

"Judges of the constitutional court have taken a decision that I can't exercise my freedom, my democracy," Zuma said in a YouTube video shared by his uMkhonto we Sizwe party.

"I am going to fight for my rights until this country agrees that freedom must be a complete freedom, not for some and oppression for others."

While Zuma's name will be removed from MK's list of parliamentary candidates, his face will remain on the election's ballot papers as he is the registered leader of the party.

Zuma endorsed MK in December, when he announced he would not campaign for the governing African National Congress, which he led from 2007 until 2017.

He resigned as South Africa's president in 2018, under pressure from current ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa's allies in the party, after nine years as head of state marred by corruption scandals and slowing economic growth.

Zuma's jailing in 2021 triggered riots in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal in which more than 300 people died. The riots morphed into a wider spate of looting.

There had been fears that this week's court ruling could prompt a violent reaction from Zuma's supporters, but that has not materialised.