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South Africans vote in national and provincial elections on May 29 with opinion polls suggesting the governing African National Congress will lose its majority for the first time in the democratic era, while remaining the largest party.

Under South Africa's constitution, voters elect 400 members of the National Assembly, who then elect the president by a simple majority. In all previous elections since 1994, the ANC won and lawmakers elected the party's leader as president.

Here are scenarios that could unfold this time, depending on the electoral maths.

ANC OUTPERFORMS POLLS AND WINS

In recent months, several polls suggested ANC support was hovering around the 40% mark, which would represent a collapse from its performance in 2019, when it won 57.5% of the vote.

However, a tracking poll suggests ANC support has risen in the weeks leading up to election day. Analysts say the party has an unmatched grassroots campaigning machine, with activists going door-to-door in communities across the country.

Over the past four electoral cycles, the ANC's share of the vote gradually dropped, but never by more than five percentage points from one election to the next.

If the ANC wins a majority, it is highly likely that President Cyril Ramaphosa, the party leader, would be re-elected as head of state by the new National Assembly.

ANC LOSES MAJORITY AND RAMAPHOSA GETS OUSTED

If the ANC loses its majority by a wide margin and Ramaphosa is blamed, the party could seek to oust him as its leader and nominate someone else for the National Assembly to elect as South African president.

It would have to move quickly as the constitution says the new National Assembly must convene within 14 days of the election result being declared to elect a president.

Most analysts say this is unlikely unless the ANC vote share is around 40% or less, a worst-case-scenario for the party. A more probable scenario would be for Ramaphosa to hand over to a successor in an orderly transition part way through his term.

Whether Ramaphosa stays or goes, the overwhelmingly likely scenario is that he or the next ANC leader will be president after the election. There would have to be a colossal upset for another party to have a chance of winning the presidency.

Regardless of whether Ramaphosa or someone else is president, if the ANC loses its majority it will need support from one or more other parties to keep governing.

ANC NARROWLY LOSES MAJORITY AND SEEKS SMALL PARTNERS

If the ANC comes close enough to 50%, it will try to make a deal with small- or medium-sized parties to form a government.

Analysts say the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party, which is strong in KwaZulu-Natal province and is polling at about 5% nationally, could be the ANC's first choice, though the IFP leader says it would rather not prop up the ANC.

The two parties were in violent conflict during the final years of apartheid, but worked together in the government of national unity that was formed after the 1994 election.

Other potential partners include the small Muslim party Al-Jama'ah and the Patriotic Alliance, which draws its support from the mixed-race community.

ANC LOSES MAJORITY BY WIDER MARGIN AND SEEKS LARGER PARTNER

Depending on the numbers, the party may have no choice but to seek support from one of its larger rivals: the free-market Democratic Alliance or the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters.

The price of a deal with either of those would likely be significant policy concessions by the ANC, as well as the offer of some senior government positions for their partner.

Analysts say it is difficult to envisage a stable arrangement under this scenario, and South Africa could be facing a period of unprecedented government volatility.

Investors and the business community would prefer a deal with the DA, which has said it would not rule one out. However, many analysts think the ideological divide between the ANC and the DA is so wide as to make a deal difficult or impossible.

Led by Juliu...

Solidarity noted it will on Friday serve government court documents which it said could bring the implementation of the National Health Insurance Act to a halt.

Earlier this month, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the NHI Bill into law amid significant criticism from political parties and civil society organisations.

The organisation said that the serving of court papers came after Ramaphosa did not withdraw the legislation before Thursday's deadline set by Solidarity's legal team.

In its court papers, Solidarity said the NHI was invalid, urging Ramaphosa not to bring the Act into force, as it said it was technically flawed, depriving it of its legality.

"The reason is because there is no start date for the scheme, as required by section 59 of the NHI Act - an omission detected by Solidarity's legal team when they analysed the legislation," said Solidarity CE Dr Dirk Hermann.

Hermann highlighted that the notice in the Government Gazette does not put the law into effect.

He added that the notice did not comply with the requirements determined by the NHI Act for implementation of the Act saying any action arising from the notice would be "illegal."

Solidarity deputy CE Anton van der Bijl explained that these obvious "technical shortcomings" showed how negligently the Act, as it was published in the Government Gazette, was cobbled together.

Hermann noted Ramaphosa's "hasty" signing of the Bill and what he termed the obvious technical flaws, saying it confirmed that this was "reckless vote-garnering."

"The correct promulgation of the Act still needs a lot of work. The government is not ready for that. Therefore, they signed quickly and created the impression among the public that the Act has been implemented," he explained. .

According to Van der Bijl, Solidarity also stated in the court documents that the NHI Act was "impracticable, unnecessary and totally unaffordable".

He noted the research conducted by the Solidarity Research Institute indicating that the NHI scheme will cost about R660-billion a year, or around R300-billion if the current budget for public healthcare was subtracted from that figure.

"…based on this, it is inevitable to come to the conclusion that the State plans to strangle an already overburdened population with additional taxes by means of a destructive surtax, a VAT increase or a payroll tax," added Bijl.

He said this research conducted by SRI cannot be contested as the State failed to do a cost analysis of its own that could contradict it.

"…therefore, the affordability of the NHI cannot be proven, and neither can the manner of implementation be proven," he said.

Van der Bijl said Ramaphosa acted "extremely irresponsibly and contrary" to the Constitution by signing the Act, he said.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa said the NHI was an opportunity to "break with the prevailing inequality" in South Africa's health system. He also called on stakeholders to work with government to ensure the NHI operated successfully.

Other civil society organisations and political parties have also threatened legal action following the controversial signing of the NHI Bill.

The Democratic Alliance Abroad noted challenges during elections, vowing to take up the issues with the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa.

South Africans abroad had the opportunity to cast their ballots on Friday and Saturday, while the South African mission in London, England, was the only voting station that remained open on Sunday to accommodate the more than 24 000 voters registered and approved to vote at that mission.

DA Abroad chairperson Ludre Stevens said his party knew that there were many challenges faced by voters abroad.

The party expressed disappointment that the IEC did not implement the court order on adding more voting stations abroad, saying it would ensure that more stations were implemented for the next elections and that voting stations were appropriate to the populations they served.

In February, the DA took the IEC and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation to the Electoral Court to request that embassies, high commissions and consulates be included as voting stations for the 29 May elections.

In April, the Electoral Court ruled in favour of the DA with regard to overseas-based voters.

"The DA Abroad has noted the many challenges raised by South Africans over the past few days and will ensure that these issues are taken up with the IEC. This includes logistical issues experienced at voting stations with high numbers of voters, including The Hague and Dubai," said Stevens.

Stevens noted that a lack of voting stations in cities with large South African expat populations, meant that tens of thousands of eligible voters were excluded from the opportunity to vote.

"This is despite the DA winning a court case against the IEC for more voting stations overseas - including in places like Perth, whose large South African population could not make the 4-hour flight to vote at the Embassy in Canberra, Australia," he said.

Similar situations were faced by voters in New Zealand, the US, Canada and Europe, he added.

He highlighted that miscommunication from the IEC regarding the required ID documents to vote resulted in many South Africans being turned away from voting stations.

He noted that this followed incorrect information sent in email communication by the IEC indicating that only a passport was required to vote, when in fact only an ID was accepted.

He explained that going forward the DA would be fighting for voters to be allowed to vote with either an ID or a passport as the party considered both to be valid forms of identification.

Meanwhile, the IEC was lauded for a smooth election abroad.

South Africa's small Muslim political party Al Jama-ah is gaining support due to the conflict in Gaza and sees itself as a potential coalition partner for the African National Congress after next week's vote, its leader said on Wednesday.

Solidarity with the Palestinians is a popular position in South Africa, where many people liken their treatment by Israel to the plight of its own Black majority during apartheid -- a comparison strongly rejected by Israel.

South Africa has also taken Israel to the World Court on accusations of genocide, which Israel denies.

Polls suggest that the ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in the election on May 29, forcing it into coalition with one or more parties to stay in power.

"The ANC can count on us," Ganief Hendricks, Al Jama-ah's leader and sole member of parliament, told Reuters.

South Africans will elect a 400-member parliament, which will then elect the country's president by majority vote.

If the ANC gets close to 50% of votes, which translates into 50% of parliamentary seats, analysts say it could likely enlist a few small opposition parties to keep its leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, in power.

Hendricks said the ANC had already approached Al Jama-ah for support, although the ANC says publicly it expects to win the election outright and is not planning to form a coalition.

"The ANC came to see me and told me 'look... we are five seats short in terms of our number-crunching, and we're going to approach you for those five seats'," he said.

The ANC declined to comment beyond referring to its previous public statements.

Recent polling has put the ANC at around 45%, meaning it would be 20 seats short of a majority. Al Jama-ah is too small to be included in national polls, but Hendricks said it was aiming to get 10 seats, or about 2.5% of the national vote.

Al Jama-ah is already in a coalition government with the ANC and the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters in Johannesburg, where the current mayor Kabelo Gwamanda is a member of Al Jama-ah.

In reflecting on former Constitutional Court Justice Yvonne Mokgoro's legacy, President Cyril Ramaphosa called on citizens to be reminded of their duty to help build a South Africa of true equality, of freedom and of human rights.

Mokgoro, who passed away in May 9 at the age of 73 in hospital, will be laid to rest in Johannesburg on Thursday. She has been honoured with a special official funeral category one.

Ramaphosa described Mokgoro as a pioneer, saying in so many respects, her legacy was a tribute to resilience, to principled activism and to steadfastness, "no matter how great the obstacle or how difficult the climb".

In 1994, upon its inception, Mokgoro became the first black woman to be appointed to the Constitutional Court.

Ramaphosa noted that Mokgoro found her calling to become a human rights lawyer in the trenches of struggle, as a student activist and member of the African National Congress in the then Bophuthatswana, and later in the Northern Cape.

"Her appointment to the Constitutional Court was the product of many years of both formal and self-study to better herself and to advance in her chosen profession," he said.

He highlighted that it was the fulfilment of a dream in which she never lost faith, even while working in a host of different jobs, as a nursing assistant, a retail salesperson and as a clerk.

"It was a progression from a successful career as a legal academic when she produced ground-breaking research on customary law. This all at a time when our jurisprudence and case law around this subject were still evolving," said Ramahosa.

He explained that the life of Mokgoro was the life of untold numbers of black women in this country under apartheid, who he said bore the triple burden of race, class and gender.

"She sought to carve a path for herself at a time when the odds were stacked heavily against women, and against black women in particular. And yet she went forth with courage, with determination, and with the humility that was her trademark," he added.

He highlighted that in its tribute to Mokgoro, the International Commission of Jurists described her as an inspiration to the next generation of women lawyers.

He said Justice Mokgoro brought this humanism and commitment to social justice to the bench, noting that in her judgment on the court's very first case, the seminal State v Makwanyane matter involving the death penalty, she expanded on the principle of ubuntu, describing it as "one shared value and ideal that runs like a golden thread across cultural lines".

During her time on the bench, in the public interest work Mokgoro engaged in after she retired in 2009, she was steadfast in her view that regard for human dignity should be the bedrock of jurisprudence everywhere, he said.

Between 2016 and 2020, Justice Mokgoro chaired the United Nation's Internal Justice Council, which is tasked with ensuring independence, professionalism and accountability in the administration of the justice system of the UN.

"As South Africa we are immensely proud that our jurists are held in such high regard internationally on matters of human rights, racial discrimination and gender justice. Alongside her fellow other justices, she affirmed that ubuntu was interwoven with the rights to life, to dignity and to equality," said Ramaphosa.

Nelson Mandela's African National Congress promised South Africans "A Better Life For All" when it swept to power in the country's first democratic election in 1994, marking the end of white minority rule and apartheid.

After 30 years of ANC government, many South Africans are frustrated about persistent poverty and inequality, and the party risks losing its parliamentary majority for the first time in a May 29 election, according to opinion polls.

The World Bank reported in 2022 that South Africa was the most unequal country in the world, based on the Gini metric, a statistical distribution of welfare indicators commonly used to measure inequality.

The following data shows that while strides have been made in delivering education, housing and welfare benefits to a wider share of society, South Africa has yet to overcome the legacy of apartheid and deliver a better life for all.

UNEMPLOYMENT

South Africa's joblessness rate, among the highest in the world, is the number one concern for many voters, though the problem is far more acute for the Black majority than for the white minority. The rates for other ethnic groups fall in between.

A series of government interventions have failed to narrow the gap, with the unemployment rate last year standing at 36.5% for Black people and 7.7% for white people.

ECONOMY

South Africa's GDP per capita increased steadily in the years following the advent of democracy but that trend has reversed since 2011. By 2023, it was below the average for emerging markets.

Economists say the decline in GDP per capita is rooted in a weakening economy rather than population growth. Power shortages and poor maintenance of critical transport infrastructure are among factors deterring investment and hampering business.

South Africa's GDP growth has averaged 0.8% per year since 2012, a rate the National Treasury has said is insufficient to reduce high levels of unemployment and poverty.

COMPANY OWNERSHIP

One measure of the unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity in South African society is the breakdown by population group of ownership of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Black people make up more than 80% of South Africa's population. However, average Black ownership in JSE-listed firms - a measure which includes other previously segregated racial groups - was 30% in 2022, with the remaining 70% owned by white people and foreign nationals.

No JSE-listed company was fully Black-owned in 2022.

LAND REFORM

The question of land ownership is highly politically charged in South Africa due to the legacy of the colonial and apartheid eras, when Black people were dispossessed of their lands and denied property rights.

Successive ANC governments have launched programmes aimed at transferring farmland from white to Black owners, for example by buying land and then redistributing it. The target, which has been moved back several times, is to transfer 30% of farmland owned by white farmers to Black farmers by 2030.

Academics Wandile Sihlobo and Johann Kirsten, both experts on agriculture, have estimated that about 20% of freehold farmland owned by white farmers in 1994 has passed into Black hands, either through government programmes or private purchases.

White commercial farmers now own about 61-million hectares, representing 78% of farmland that comes with private title deeds and 50% of all land in South Africa, according to their estimates.

Opinions vary widely on whether this represents significant progress or not, and land reform remains a rallying cry for certain political parties, including the ANC and the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters, who want it to be accelerated.

SOCIAL WELFARE

The number of South Africans on state benefits for old age, disability or child support has increased significantly over the years, straining the country's budget with more than a quarter of social development funding earmarked for social grants.

Over 27-million people, or 44% of the population, receive...

South Africa's headline inflation slowed slightly in April, but analysts said an interest rate cut was unlikely next week when the central bank's monetary policy meeting overlaps with a national election whose outcome is uncertain.

Headline consumer inflation dropped to 5.2% year on year in April from 5.3% in March, Statistics South Africa data showed on Wednesday, whereas economists polled by Reuters had predicted another reading of 5.3%.

The slowdown was driven by a decrease in annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages, offsetting fuel price increases.

The South African Reserve Bank has tried to steer inflation back to the midpoint of its target band of between 3% and 6% by keeping its main interest rate at its highest level since 2009 for the past year.

Its next policy announcement is scheduled for May 30, the day after South Africans vote in national and provincial elections, and the central bank governor told Reuters last month that huge uncertainty over the results was keeping the country's risk premium elevated.

Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said SARB officials would also be keeping a close eye on fiscal risks around the election and that his research firm did not expect any rate cuts this year.

Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, said she did not expect much change in the bank's still-hawkish assessment of the inflation outlook.

The central bank said last month that the path back to 4.5% inflation would probably be "bumpy and protracted" due to setbacks in the disinflation trajectory.

At its last policy meeting in March, the SARB said it only expected headline inflation to reach 4.5% around the end of 2025.

Political parties expressed deepest condolences at the passing of former Democratic Alliance Federal Council chairperson and MP James Selfe, noting his contributions to the opposition political landscape.

Selfe died on Tuesday following a lengthy battle with illness.

Selfe led a quietly influential life in contemporary South African political history, having made an immense contribution to South African democracy.

"The DA would like to extend its sincerest condolences to those closest to James, and our thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Sheila, and three daughters, Chloe, Stephanie and Emma during this very difficult time," said DA leader John Steenhuisen.

In the late 70s and 80s, he worked tirelessly as a researcher for the DA's forerunner, the Progressive Federal Party, to combat divisive and regressive apartheid laws by the National Party in Parliament.

Selfe then served as the party's communications director, later becoming an executive director.

Steenhuisen said Selfe was always committed to building and sustaining a democracy in which transparency and accountability would ensure that government served its people, and not the politicians holding the reins.

He explained that Selfe helped finetune the party's systems and processes, tightening its Federal Constitution and turning the fast-growing DA into a modern, internationally-renowned African liberal party of rules and fairness.

More crucially, he noted that Selfe pioneered the DA's lawfare programme responsible for some of the most ground-breaking legal judgments in post-Apartheid history, setting a variety of legal precedents which he said strengthened public accountability in the country's young democracy.

"…from the Zuma spy tapes, to Nkandla, to blowing the whistle on State contracts awarded to Bosasa, James led the charge against corruption and maladministration levelled against the South African people by some of the governing party's most unethical figures," said Steenhuisen.

He said that the DA was indebted to Selfe not only for his contribution to the party, but the many wonderful connections he made with the people who belonged to it.

Inkatha Freedom Party leader Velenkosini Hlabisa described Selfe as a dedicated public servant, having spent most of his life serving the people of South Africa with distinction.

He noted Selfe's commitment to serving South Africans in Parliament for over two decades, saying he would be remembered fondly by all who had the privilege of knowing and working alongside him.

"Selfe's contributions to the opposition political landscape were significant, and his legacy will continue to inspire future generations of leaders," said Hlabisa.

ActionSA president Herman Mashaba extended the party's sincere condolences to the family, friends and colleagues of Selfe, noting his career featured a "commendable" track record of genuine dedication to strengthening the country's democracy and constitutional order.

Mashaba highlighted that having been elected to Parliament in 1994, Selfe participated in the Constitutional Assembly, contributing to the drafting of South Africa's Democratic Constitution.

"…his contribution, dedication, and service to South Africa will always be remembered. ActionSA honours his memory, which we believe serves as an inspiration for the vital role that Parliament plays in holding the executive to account, a principle that James Selfe understood, respected, and ensured guided his work," he said.

Build One South Africa leader Mmusi Maimane said Selfe was a great friend, a trusted adviser and a true Statesman, who he was privileged to serve alongside for many years in the DA.

He noted Selfe's ability to develop the country's legal landscape and jurisprudence, which he said played a pivotal role in safeguarding the country's institutions of State from abuse.

RISE Mzansi leader Songezo Zibi said Selfe exemplified how leaders and public representatives in open democracy should behave - caring, respectful, diligent and d...

South Africa's state-owned power utility Eskom needs to run some coal-fired plants for longer than their planned retirement deadlines to avoid leaving the national grid "vulnerable," according to its chief executive officer.

Eskom has approved a plan to keep using at least three stations that were scheduled to close over the next few years until 2030. For years, an unreliable power system has hit South Africa with blackouts that crimp economic growth.

"We'll continue some of our coal operations that were earmarked for shutting down," Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said at a Cape Town conference. "We'll review that process on shorter time intervals going to 2030, but we'll place ourselves in a position where we are not made vulnerable by early shutting down of those stations."

Eskom's decision comes as South Africa has committed to lowering emissions by moving from mainly coal-fired power to cleaner sources of energy. That's raised questions around the Just Energy Transition Partnership - a $9.3-billion pact with some of the world's richest nations to help make those changes. France, Germany, the US, UK and European Union have offered the money to help South Africa move away from coal, which is currently the source of more than 80% of the nation's power.

"We're still committed" to reducing emissions, but Eskom's efforts must be viewed across the entire generation fleet, said Bheki Nxumalo, the company's group executive for generation. He also said it's "critical" to run some stations beyond their original shutdown date and that workers lose focus if the imminent closure of the plant they work in is looming.

While ending power cuts is a priority for the century-old utility, it's also looking at reinventing the business, according to Marokane. "A number of people have written it off - we don't believe that that is the case," he said. "There's a clear path here and an opportunity for Eskom to reinvent itself and that's what we're focusing on."

South Africa's presidency said on Monday it welcomed an announcement by the International Criminal Court's prosecutor saying he had requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defence chief and three Hamas leaders over alleged war crimes.

"The law must be applied equally to all in order to uphold the international rule of law, ensure accountability for those that commit heinous crimes and protect the rights of victims," President Cyril Ramaphosa's office said in a statement.

South Africa, a leading voice in championing the cause of Palestinians, has also brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice accusing it of genocide, which it denies.

Israel and Hamas leaders have dismissed allegations of committing war crimes, and representatives of both sides criticised the prosecutor's decision.