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South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) is likely to win 44.8% of the vote in this month's national election and will be loath to invite populist rivals into a governing coalition, according to research group Krutham.

The predicted vote outcome, based on an analysis of opinion polls and municipal by-election results as well as discussions with political parties, will enable the ANC to form an alliance with malleable smaller parties, Krutham said in a report released on Wednesday. The ANC would prefer a tie-up with the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), to partnering with groups that splintered from its ranks, it said.

With the May 29 election set to be the tightest since apartheid ended three decades ago and a number of polls forecasting the ANC will lose its national majority for the first time, investors are focusing on who its prospective partners might be.

The prospect of an alliance with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the uMkhonto weSizwe Party - known as the MKP and led by former President Jacob Zuma - has raised concern among investors. Both parties splintered from the ANC and advocate land expropriation, widespread nationalisation and a reversal of efforts to decarbonise the economy.

"We do not see an EFF-ANC coalition as likely at all," Krutham Managing Director Peter Attard Montalto and research analyst Nduduzo Langa wrote in the report. Montalto and Krutham Chairman Stuart Theobald are well-known commentators on South Africa.

The Johannesburg-based group, which assigned a 45% probability to its ANC vote-share forecast materialising, said a ruling coalition is most likely to be formed between the ANC, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and smaller groups. Other scenarios considered by the research group, which take account of varying voter turnout and other factors, show the ANC garnering between 38% and 48% of the vote.

With the ANC having won 57.5% support in 2019, all those outcomes would result in the ANC's largest ever loss of vote share. Its performance will determine the makeup of a post-election coalition.

Krutham sees the DA winning 22.7% of the vote, the EFF 9.8%, the MKP 7.7% and the IFP 4%.

President Cyril Ramaphosa said the ruling party is seeking a clear majority.

If the ANC's share of the vote falls to below 50% "that will be the danger zone for our country," he said in a speech in Johannesburg on Monday. "Our country needs a strong government that will be led by one party."

The Krutham forecast for the ANC share is well above that of polls carried out by Ipsos, the Social Research Foundation and the Brenthurst Foundation in March and April, but is similar to the SRF's latest daily tracking poll. The methodology of South African polling groups has been questioned by political analysts.

Fitch solutions company BMI noted that while any potential coalition groupings will pose headwinds to policymaking and negatively impact investor sentiment, an African National Congress-Economic Freedom Fighters (ANC-EFF) coalition would likely result in a significantly adverse market reaction, negatively impacting bond yields and the rand.

The BMI is of the view that the ruling ANC will lose its majority after the general elections on May 29, with a voter share of around 45%, but will remain the main policy driver by forming a coalition with smaller parties.

"…however, ideological differences, particularly on key issues such as reforms to the power sector, land reform, labour regulations and the National Health Insurance Bill, would hamper policymaking," the company said.

It noted that this was reflected in South Africa's "chequered recent history of coalitions" at the municipal level, including in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni - despite more successful early national coalitions in 1994 and 1999 - which saw a high turnover of city mayors and a decline in service delivery as parties struggled to overcome ideological differences.

BMI senior analyst sub-Saharan Africa country risk Lara Wolfe explained that an ANC-EFF coalition presented downside risks to private-sector participation in the power sector and would likely hinder grid investments and the growth of renewables.

Similarly, for mining, there was a prediction of muted mining activity post-election, although an ANC-EFF coalition would result in high mining regulation policy uncertainty, acting as a deterrent to mining investment and further weighing on BMI's outlook for the mining sector, said Wolfe.

According to its manifesto, the EFF will likely push for higher recurrent and capital spending, resulting in increased borrowing and a larger role of the State in the economy.

"This could prompt a revision of the government's debt target and our own public debt forecasts from current projections of 74.3% of GDP in 2024 and 76.5% in 2025," she said.

She noted that while it was unlikely that the EFF would successfully push for the nationalisation of mines, land and banks, its influence would probably result in increased funding for existing State-owned enterprises (SOEs) - consistent with its manifesto pledges to expand Eskom's role and bolster SOE support.

She explained that challenges in curtailing the burgeoning public sector wage bill and high social transfers would persist, especially with the EFF's call for higher minimum wages and expanded public sector employment, as well as a doubling of all social grants.

Wolfe highlighted that under an ANC-EFF coalition, pressure from the EFF to increase social transfers would provide moderate support for household spending, although South Africa's persistently high unemployment rates would continue to suppress private consumption growth.

"We would expect a reduction in fixed investment as government capital expenditure is likely to be overshadowed by elevated recurrent spending demands. Additionally, a decline in business confidence could dampen private investment," said BMI.

BMI highlighted that should the coalitions between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA) manage to pass policy, fiscal deficit would likely narrow more than currently expected and would also result in stronger economic growth and currency performance as well as better US-South Africa relations.

"This coalition might initially create uncertainty among investors due to potential policymaking slowdowns. However, if the collaboration proves effective, we could see the rand outperform our current expectations as DA-led reforms to streamline business regulation (such as pushing to reform the Labour Relations Act and reducing racial quotas) could attract more private investment. Nonetheless, such reforms might spur social unrest, leading to increased volatility of the rand," it said.

BMI noted that South Africa's proportional representation style of politics resul...

President Cyril Ramaphosa will on Thursday visit the site of a collapse of a partially built residential building, in George in the Western Cape.

Rescue and recovery efforts are ongoing into the second week after the collapse, with the death toll standing at 33 as at 18:00 on Wednesday.

According to the latest statistics released by George municipality, of the estimated 81 workers who were on site at the time of the incident on May 6, 61 people have been rescued or recovered, while 20 are still unaccounted for.

Since the fatal incident, government and its disaster management agencies at all levels have mobilised personnel and resources towards the rescue efforts and have provided support to the survivors and families of the deceased.

Spokesperson to the President Vincent Magwenya said Ramaphosa remained deeply attentive to the rescue and recovery efforts and had expressed his condolences to the family and friends of the deceased workers.

Magwenya noted that ahead of Ramaphosa's visit, Ministers and Deputy Ministers in the departments of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Employment and Labour, Health, Police, International Relations and Cooperation, and Public Works and Infrastructure have visited the site and have been working collaboratively with the Disaster Joint Operations Centre, with the Western Cape provincial government and the Garden Route district municipality.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's Monday night announcement that he would sign the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill into law on Wednesday, is a move made out of "sheer desperation".

This was according to Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen who said the African National Congress (ANC) "cast around for any populist lever" ahead of the May 29 elections, as polls suggest the ruling party may lose its long-held majority in the country.

"Unfortunately for the people of South Africa, Ramaphosa chose the NHI as the ANC's last stand before it finally loses power in less than three weeks. It is difficult to think of a more cynical and destructive move. It is a dishonour to the Office of President that Ramaphosa could sink this low. What he has done by making this announcement, is to play with the lives of the South African people for imaginary political gain. By making this announcement, Ramaphosa has made a fatal miscalculation," Steenhuisen said.

Business and civil society on Monday expressed concern following Ramaphosa's announcement. They argue that the NHI Bill, in its current form, is unworkable, unaffordable, and not in line with the Constitution.

Business Unity South Africa has warned the legislation is "unimplementable and damaging" to the country's healthcare sector, to the economy more broadly and to investor confidence.

Steenhuisen claimed that the DA was inundated with queries from "panicked" citizens following Ramaphosa's announcement.

"Some of them asked if this meant that their sick relatives would continue to receive the critical care keeping them alive, whether their medical aids have now expired, and how they are supposed to afford the astronomical tax increases that Ramaphosa plans to impose. The scale of panic we saw in response to this announcement, is without precedent," he said.

Steenhuisen called the impending signing of the NHI Bill a "cheap election ploy" and said the DA would challenge it in the Constitutional Court.

The DA has been preparing for months to legally challenge the Bill, Steenhuisen revealed.

"We have built up reams of correspondence, including with Ramaphosa himself, that we will enter into evidence to show that the process which led to the adoption of this Bill by Parliament disregarded public input, and that the Bill itself is flagrantly unconstitutional," he said.

The DA leader also promised that, if elected into power, his party would repeal the NHI Bill.

He warned of catastrophic corruption and the flight of doctors and nurses.

"We don't need an Eskom for healthcare in this country. What we need is a new government that doesn't steal the money meant for healthcare. That is why we need the DA in government. Not only will we bring our demonstrated expertise in running a world-class public health system in the Western Cape to bear. We will also partner with the private sector to leverage the expertise of our country's world-class doctors and nurses to fix the public health sector that the ANC has broken. We will root out corruption and cadre deployment, improve service delivery, and protect existing zero-fee care at public facilities, just like we are already doing in the Western Cape," Steenhuisen said.

The DA wants all sectors of society to join its legal challenge of the Bill, including the ANC's alliance partner, the Congress of South African Trade Unions.

South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) researcher Isabel Bosman said on Tuesday while coalition governments are unusual or outside the norm, they could be considered a natural provision of democratic politics.

Bosman was speaking during SAIIA's pre-election workshop, where she highlighted that perfecting coalition governments would not miraculously work overnight, but would take time and continuous effort.

"I do not think coalitions are something to be resisted, they should be studied and debated so that we can better understand them and so that they can improve," she said.

With South Africa gearing up for its most crucial elections later this month, the term coalition has gained prominence, fuelled by pre-election polls suggesting a high likelihood of a coalition government as the ruling African National Congress's (ANC's) majority declines further in projections.

Bosman noted that a coalition government at national level had been poised to be the only sort of viable solution to stable and accountable governance, however, it was not clear what such a coalition would look like.

She said that the idea of coalitions is not new in the country, noting that throughout South Africa's democratic history provincial and national coalition governments have existed.

Coalitions are lauded for their potential to bridge diversity and foster inclusive governance, however, concerns loom over their stability and governance efficacy, particularly in South Africa's upcoming election.

SAIIA highlighted that instances of coalition governments failing to fulfil their obligations, especially in major metropolitan areas, have raised doubts.

"Mayors from smaller parties have faced ousting; concerns persist regarding dominant partners' unwillingness to compromise within coalitions; a lack of transparency is eroding voter trust, and experts suggest there is a dearth of a 'coalition governance culture' in the country," the Institute said.

Bosman highlighted that the iterations of coalitions in practice at a local government level can be used as a new governance model to improve leadership, share government practices and service delivery to guide the future national government trajectory.

She said much reflecting must take place for the model to become viable.

"Certainly coalition governments have been common in local government in South Africa. Nintey-four coalition councils have been recorded throughout the country between 2006 and 2016 and following the local government elections in 2021," she explained.

She added that successes of coalition governments must be carefully considered for the model to be viable for national level.

Meanwhile, she said to avoid infighting and chaos in coalitions, motivations matter alongside size matter .

"There more parties in a coalition, the more you juggle and easy to find common ground and share views," she said.

She highlighted that the terms of the agreement should be clearly understood by all parties involved, adding that formal terminology is also important for successful coalitions.

A formal legal framework regarding coalition in South Africa would be a wise investment in the country, she said.

Business and political parties have expressed disappointment with President Cyril Ramphosa's announcement that he will, on Wednesday, sign into law the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill.

On Monday, Ramaphosa announced that he would publicly sign the Bill, which government hoped to use to achieve universal coverage for health services and, through this, overcome socioeconomic imbalances and past inequities.

Business Unity South Africa (Busa) said it was deeply concerned by the announcement, given the Bill's many "substantive and procedural constitutional flaws".

"We fully support the objective of universal health coverage, however, the NHI Bill in its current form is unworkable, unaffordable, and not in line with the Constitution," said Busa CEO Cas Coovadia.

Busa believes that the legislation, in its current form, is "unimplementable and damaging" to the country's healthcare sector, to the economy more broadly and to investor confidence.

"What is especially troubling is that the President is proceeding with the Bill despite extensive constructive inputs made by a wide range of stakeholders, including doctors and healthcare professionals, civil society, public sector unions, academics and business," Coovadia said.

He explained that the consequence was that this version of the Bill would "hamper, rather than promote", access to quality healthcare for all citizens.

He said Busa would pay close attention to the President's announcement on Wednesday, and consider its options.

"Our subsequent actions will be guided by our belief that it is essential that we get the NHI right through all means still at our disposal, including appropriate legal interventions, so that the legislation that is finally implemented is in the best interest of our country, and all her people, for generations to come," said Coovadia.

The South African Health Professionals Collaboration (SAHPC), also expressed its disappointment and concern following the announcement.

The SAHPC has made many submissions and had engagement in the NHI parliamentary process, in December, and has urged the President to refer the Bill back to Parliament on the grounds that it is unconstitutional and not in the best interest of patients and citizens. SAHPC said its input and insights were ignored.

SAPHC also believes its members' concerns and recommendations throughout the parliamentary process were systematically ignored, raising serious questions about the fairness and effectiveness of the democratic process.

SAHPC members highlighted that they had consistently advocated for policies that prioritised the wellbeing of patients and ensured the sustainability of the country's healthcare system.

The SAHPC said its members' disappointment stemmed not only from the disregard for their expertise but also from the potential consequences the "unworkable" Bill may inflict on the healthcare landscape.

"Our members have made submissions at every stage of the legislative process, dating back to the release of the Green Paper in 2011. It is disheartening to see our efforts to contribute to a more robust, workable and patient-centric healthcare system being ignored. Where we are now is unprecedented, and we believe that the NHI, in its current form will reverse, rather than progress, equitable, quality healthcare in South Africa. We have no doubt that the NHI Bill will be challenged in the courts, and we are currently exploring all our options in this regard," said SAHPC spokesperson Dr. Simon Strachan.

Meanwhile, ActionSA said it was disappointed that Ramaphosa had ignored the plea to avoid signing the Bill into law, in order to "avoid State capture 2.0".

ActionSA Team Fix South Africa member Dr Kgosi Letlape said that while the NHI was well-intentioned to address healthcare inequality in South Africa, in its current form, it would open the health system to "corruption" as was seen during the Covid-19 pandemic when billions were lost through personal protective equipment and...

While political party Compatriots of South Africa will not be contesting the upcoming elections, it has given its support to the GOOD Party, and wants its supporters to vote for GOOD, following discussions between both parties over the weekend.

The party, Compatriots of South Africa, is based in the Eastern Cape, with the slogan 'Restoring our dignity' and a focus on communities it believes have been marginalised in the democratic South Africa.

GOOD Party said in a statement on Monday that while there had been much change in South Africa since the end of Apartheid, more should have been done to make up for the historic injustices.

"The GOOD Party extends its gratitude to Compatriots of South Africa for endorsing the necessity to stop our people's suffering. The majority of South Africans are good people. Regardless of where they live, what they look like or what language they speak, they share the ideal of raising children able to take the opportunities that come their way, and live lives of decency and dignity. The GOOD Party's no-frills approach to prioritise re-balancing a profoundly unequal country by addressing the suffering and indignity of millions of citizens who, 30 years after democracy, still find themselves shut out of the economy, is winning the support of good people across the country," GOOD said.

The George municipality has reported that, as at 15:00 on May 13, 25 people still remain unaccounted for following last week's building collapse.

The death toll has risen to 27, while 13 people remain in hospital.

Rescue efforts have been under way since the partially built building in the George central business district collapsed on May 6.

South Africans will vote in a national election on May 29 with an unprecedented sense of uncertainty about the outcome, as polls suggest the African National Congress (ANC) will lose its majority after 30 years in power.

With coalition government looking like a possibility for the first time since the end of apartheid, a dizzying array of 70 parties from Marxists to social democrats to free marketeers are vying for voters' attention in the last weeks of campaigning.

The following are the key issues that matter to voters who will elect a new National Assembly that will then choose the next president.

JOBS

South Africa has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, trapping millions of people in poverty and making them reliant on social grants, and the problem is worse now than it was at the end of apartheid.

The joblessness rate stood at 32.4% in 2023, nearly 10 points higher than in 1994, when the ANC came to power. Young people account for more than half of the country's unemployed, with a rate of over 40%.

ECONOMY

The root cause of the joblessness crisis is sluggish growth. South Africa's economy has barely grown in more than a decade, with economic growth averaging 0.8% since 2012.

Falling tax revenue has caused government debt to rise, with debt-servicing costs consuming a greater share of the national budget than basic education, social protection or health. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 74.1% in the current fiscal year, up from 63.3% five years ago.

POWER CUTS

Known to South Africans as loadshedding, scheduled power cuts imposed by State utility Eskom because of an inability to generate enough electricity to meet demand are the bane of households as well as companies.

Eskom has been struggling to keep its ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants operational. The utility became dysfunctional in part due to a flourishing of corruption during the administration of former president Jacob Zuma from 2009 to 2018.

The government is working to add generating capacity, largely through deals with private companies operating solar and wind projects. While some projects are operational, the green power push suffered setbacks after some projects failed to secure funding.

CORRUPTION

A long series of corruption scandals involving ANC figures or people connected to them has created a perception among many South Africans that the greed of people in office is contributing to poor service delivery for everyone else.

An inquiry established in 2018 to examine allegations of high-level corruption during Zuma's years in power found the problem had been systemic in government, a phenomenon that became known as "state capture". Zuma himself denies any wrongdoing.

Since taking over from Zuma, President Cyril Ramaphosa has said tackling corruption was a priority, but opposition critics say his administration has done too little to stop the rot.

CRIME

South Africa has one of the world's highest rates of violent crime, making it unsafe to venture into certain neighbourhoods. The problem is worse in the densely populated townships on the peripheries of cities where many Black working class people live.

The murder rate for 2022/23 was the highest in 20 years at 45 per 100 000, a 50% increase from a decade ago, police figures show. That is higher than in Honduras, a country plagued by extreme gang violence.

High levels of poverty, unemployment and inequality have created fertile ground for crime to take root in South Africa, compounded by the proliferation of organised criminal groups and a flood of illegal weapons in recent years.

IMMIGRATION

Since the end of apartheid, South Africa has attracted large numbers of refugees and immigrants from other African countries, seeking a safe haven and job opportunities.

The most recent census, in 2022, found that 2.4-million of South Africa's population of 62-million were immigrants, compared with 835 000 in 1996, the year the post-apartheid constitution was promulgated.

Over the years, ...

Congress of the People's (Cope's) Gauteng Premier candidate and chairperson Tom Mofokeng is focussed on ensuring that large multinational companies are able to work with the State to ensure Gauteng is economically sustained.

Speaking exclusively with Polity, he noted that major companies were leaving South Africa's shores, impacting employment and provincial economies.

His major focus will be on manufacturing and steel to ensure development of the country's infrastructure. He said if need be, he would ensure that companies were subsidised to ensure their survival.

"I can push to have that company subsidised because with the steel that comes there, we are going to develop the country, we are going to develop the entire Africa. But not only that, you know, you have just seen what happened with the George disaster. One can only ascribe that to poor quality of building. Now, my priority will be to make sure that steel is manufactured here in South Africa," he pledged.

His second area of focus is petroleum. He said local companies such as Sasol were not given enough opportunities to thrive.

He noted that Sasol provided a large number of jobs and was a large corporate taxpayer in South Africa.

"Why would you prioritise all these other companies that are bringing crude oil and all those kinds of things from outside the country and not concentrate on your own, so that jobs should be created. You can just imagine if we can prioritise that how much of the young people are going to be trained technologically," he pointed out.

Mofokeng also had an eye on fixing electricity supply in the province and said he was not against privatising certain portions of State-owned entity Eskom.

"…because you need the private sector to try and inject money in your major project," he said.

Cope also wanted to professionalise the State by hiring by qualifications, not nepotism, Mofokeng said.

THE MIDDLE CLASS AND THE POOR

Mofokeng believed that Gauteng's middle class had been neglected and said this was the key to ensuring that the poor were uplifted from poverty.

He said the middle class was being denied opportunities to start businesses and employ those who needed jobs.

"Your [small and medium-sized enterprises] are basically a product of your thinkers in the province, and this province has got marvellous people that can take this province to greater heights. Not only that, but I will also look into making sure that middle class families are actually getting growth, in quality and in quantity. What do I mean by that, I mean that many political parties they're making noise, saying 'we want to solve the problem of the poor'. The problem of the poor is not with the poor; it is with the middle class. If you invest in the middle class and give them opportunities to do what they are supposed to do… these are the people that are going to pull the poor, out of poverty, and give them opportunities," Mofokeng stated.

COPE LEADERSHIP

Cope will see its leader Mosiuoa Lekota step down from his position, in line with the party's constitution, which prescribes that a leader can only stay on for two terms.

While Lekota will still be on the May 29 election ballot, the party will hold its national congress only after the May 29 elections to elect its new leader.

The reason for this, Mofokeng revealed, was that the party decided to use the money for its national congress on the party's election campaign.

When asked about the role Lekota would play in the party going forward, Mofokeng said Lekota would be in Cope for a very long time as he still had much to teach from his experience and knowledge of South African politics.

"… that is why we are still going to have him given another responsibility. The party's talking, we can have him as maybe emeritus president, or we can have him maybe as the adviser to the new upcoming president. But those are decisions that can be taken by the conference itself. And who knows, somebody can say, let's change the constitution, because t...