University of the Witwatersrand’s Southern Centre for Inequality Studies Adjunct Professor Michael Sachs argued on Tuesday that budget allocation is supposed to reflect a country’s policy objective targets, however, he noted that the South African government’s programme has been increasingly conflicted.

Sachs noted that South Africa’s economy had been declining and had stagnated for more than a decade.

The country’s per capita income had also been declining and while the Constitution imposed a policy imperative on government to secure rising access to economic and social goods, Sachs noted that if the resource base of the economy continued to decline and stagnate it would be impossible to meet this commitment.

He said there was a robust budget system in the country and a lot of expenditure allocation between provinces, municipalities and across government departments driven by robust formulas. There was a lot of discretion in the allocation of expenditure, he added.

“I do think there is a greater deal of uncertainty in the economy about the future direction of the economy than we have seen in our lifetimes. To the extent that the budget depends on revenue and revenue depends on the path of economic growth everybody is struggling to predict what will happen in the next few years, not only the government,” Sachs said.

He highlighted how the country controlled expenditure, explaining that when the budget system was designed the idea was a path of expenditure put down for the next three years.

“It’s what is called the medium term expenditure framework, which was supposed to be reflective of a real estimate of the cost of implementing government programmes,” he explained.

Unfortunately this had changed over the last ten years, he noted, and particularly over the last five years government’s programme had become increasingly conflicted.

He said there were many different policies moving in many different directions.

Sachs noted that there was a lot of uncertainty, not only about the economy, but about what government’s policy programme was. He added that in a context of uncertainty the budget had become less and less credible, not because there was a dearth of technical expertise in National Treasury but because government’s programme was more and more confused.

He said Treasury had increasingly resorted to using the budget not as a good estimate of how much the country would spend in the next three years, but as a negotiation position.

“And a good example of that is the number put on the budget for the wage increase for this year was 0, so the budget was constructed on the assumption that there would be a 0 wage increase for all public servants, implying in this high inflation environment a very large shock to incomes. I do not think that was ever realistic or credible and that is the reason why we are now left with this large apparent shock on the budget numbers,” he said.

Sachs said the budget was a political process that relied on a democratic mandate, saying leading up to the 2024 national government elections an additional element of pressure was being put on decision-makers who ultimately respond to popular impulses.

“As we go into the election, things like the resources made available for the extension of the social grants system will be from a political point of view - [it would be] madness to withdraw the Covid social distress relief grant just before the elections. I do not think any politician will agree to that,” he said.

University of the Witwatersrand International Relations visiting professor John Stremlau told Polity on Monday that he doubts that US Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety would allege that the Russian ship Lady R, which docked in Simon's Town in December last year, may have collected ammunition, without instructions from Washington.

South Africa awaits the appointment of a retired judge to shed light on why the ship was in South Africa following allegations by Brigety that the ship may have been in the country to provide Russia with weapons. This as the Ukraine invasion continues.

Recent reports have emerged that Defence Minister Thandi Modise said that Russian arms and ammunition were delivered for South Africa’s special forces by the Lady R cargo ship in December last year.

Stremlau could not say if this would have a detrimental effect on the relations between South Africa and the US.

He added that the timing of the inquiry into the matter, announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa, is intriguing as South Africa launches a peacekeeping mission with other African leaders to broker peace between Russia and the Ukraine.

"I expect that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is in no mood to compromise so the conflict will go on a bit longer. What we don't know is what intelligence the Americans based that statement on and we can only guess that it was maybe military equipment like drones communication equipment which is vital for war equipment,” Stremlau guessed.

He said South Africa could have reached an agreement in 2019 to provide this material to the Russians for civilian purposes and not for military purposes but added that “things change and we don't know what the frustrations were that reflected in Ambassador Brigety's outburst a week ago".

Democratic Alliance International Relations spokesperson Emma Powell has demanded the Presidency share the minutes and the details of the meeting where a decision was taken to appoint a retired judge to lead an inquiry into whether South Africa gave weapons to Russia.

Stremlau said it was beneficial to have such questions, regardless of the merits, even if South Africans were more preocuppied with and wanted outcomes to issues such as Eskom and loadshedding.

"South Africans are concerned about basic services and corruption rather than foreign policy," he ventured.

Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi said on Monday that the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has obtained legal advice that there were strong legal grounds to revoke the passport of Facebook rapist Thabo Bester’s partner Dr Nandipha Magudumana.

Motsoaledi told media that the DHA director-general will be taking steps in terms of the South African Passports and Travel Documents Act to revoke the passport issued to Magudumana in 2017.

On Saturday, Magudumana filed an urgent court application in the Free State High Court, to declare her arrest and subsequent detention unlawful.

Magudumana and Bester, with their alleged Mozambican accomplice, were arrested in Tanzania on April 7, after which they were returned to South Africa on April 13, following joint efforts by Interpol and the police's Crime Intelligence Unit.

Court papers go as far as labelling Magudumana as having been “abducted” in reference to her arrest.

She is facing 12 charges linked to Bester’s escape from the Mangaung prison in May last year.

Magudumana wants the court to free her immediately.

“I need to explain this, you are aware that in Tanzania, three passports were found on the person of Dr Magudumana, two of the passports belong to Dr Mmereka Patience Martha Ntshani and one of the passports belonged to Dr Nandipha Magudumana. Now this is the passport we are talking about, we said on the April 14 that it is valid and it is a legitimate passport and it is due to expire in 2027. This is the passport we are revoking in terms of the law because she no longer deserves to be have it.

“[The director-general] was shocked to discover that the DHA and I were not cited as respondents in that matter. This is despite the fact on May 15, 2023, there was exchange of correspondence between the director-general and Motloung INC attorneys of record for Dr Nandipha Magudumana,” Motsoaledi explained.

He said on Sunday the director-general immediately addressed a letter to Magudumana’s attorneys raising objection to the non-joinder of the DHA and himself, demanding that the “ill-advised application” be removed from the urgent roll.

The letter corrected the wrong stance adopted that Magudumana was unlawfully “abducted” or “extradited” from the United Republic of Tanzania, he said.

He went on to explain that Magudumana and Bester were declared prohibited immigrants in terms of the immigration laws of Tanzania and were therefore, as a matter of law, liable to be deported back to their country of origin.

“The same procedure was followed in respect of the Mozambican national who was in their company. The said letter was circulated to all the parties in the court proceedings in Bloemfontein,” he said.

Motsoaledi noted that the Identification Act outlines conditions under which a passport may be revoked, with one of the conditions clearly stating that if the person has been deposited and has been brought to the country at the expense of the State, his or her Identification or passport may be revoked.

“You are aware that we had to hire that chartered flight for R1.4-million at our expense and the law is very clear in that regard; if that is the case then we have got the right to revoke that passport,” he said.

Meanwhile, Motsoaledi announced that Bester was issued with an identity card on 17 May 2017, explaining that his name has now been entered into the National Population Register, thus ending many years of his status as an unidentifiable person. The birth certificate was issued to him on May 15.

Following weeks of scrutiny on the government's stance on the conflict in Ukraine, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, is headed to Russia this week for a high-level security meeting.

Ntshavheni will attend a three-day meeting in Moscow which her department has described as routine.

The meeting is expected to be attended by high-level officials and will discuss "security matters, general trends in the international security situation including global security".

Ntshavheni, whose departmental responsibility includes the Ministry of State Security, is expected to engage Russian authorities on the peacekeeping mission by African leaders who hope to try and end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

The African leaders' peace mission to Russia and Ukraine was announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa last week after consultation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ntshavheni has already sent "high-level" officials from the presidency to Ukraine in preparation for the peace mission.

The African leaders' mission will involve Zambia, Senegal, Congo, Uganda, Egypt and South Africa.

Ramaphosa said Putin and Zelensky had agreed to meet the African delegation in the trip expected to take place in June.

For the past few weeks, the government has tried to clean up its image after a political firestorm was created when US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, accused the country of supplying weapons to Russia.

Ntshavheni has vigorously defended the government's non-aligned stance on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia's invasion of the country.

She said a false impression had been created that South Africa had adopted an anti-US stance.

While addressing her department's budget vote in Parliament last week, Ntshavheni said the end of the conflict was necessary for Ukraine, Russia, and the world.

She said the war had caused a rise in food prices and inflation, further impacting the cost of living.

"South Africa will continue to support the efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; as a country and a global player, we believe that such a conflict should be ended through peaceful negotiations and engagement and not through South Africa taking sides," the minister said.

Her visit to Russia will take place from 23 to 25 May.

Asset manager and banking group Investec has warned that South Africa's interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer than expected as a weaker rand and the risk of sanctions due to Pretoria's support for Russia add pressure on an already weak economy.

"Clearly, the economy in South Africa is under significant strain, given the forecast levels of growth of just 0.2% [for 2023]," CEO Fani Titi said during a media call on Thursday.

"And the recent deterioration in the rand exchange rate will not help the fight against inflation given some of the unfortunate events around our perceived alignment as a country to Russia, and the possibility that that may lead to a level of sanctions. So we do expect that interest rates will remain higher for longer," he said.

Investec reported its results for the year to end March on Thursday, benefitting more than most of its peers from a jump in interest rates as central banks scrambled to get a lid on inflation.

Its net interest income grew about 37% to £1.3-billion (R31-billion), despite a 5.8% decline in non-interest revenues (mostly fees), with higher interest rates and growth in loans helping to lift group revenue by almost 15%. Headline earnings per share rose just over a quarter, but funds under management fell almost 5% to £61-billion.

Investec's shares were up less than 1% on Thursday morning after the results, and have fallen just over 2% so far in 2023.

Banks can get a profit boost from higher interest rates. Their massive cash balances earn higher interest, and their net interest margins also improve. But higher rates curb credit demand and add pressure on clients, leading to more bad debts. Higher interest rates have brought a spike in debt counselling cases.

Titi said Investec would also expect some of its clients to "come under pressure". But because of the bank's business model in SA, which targets corporates, high-net-worth individuals and high-income clients, he expects Investec's client base to remain resilient.

"But generally, while our clients will have some pressure, they generally do much better and are more resilient than the general market, said Titi.

Still, the group's credit loss ratio almost tripled to 0.23%, though it is still only approaching the bottom end of its through-the-cycle range of 0.23% to 0.35%. In its 2024 guidance, Investec said it expects a normalisation to within its range.

In its SA specialist banking division, credit loss impairment charges from R51-million in March 2022 to R289-million at the end of this March, with the ratio rising to 0.08%, from zero previously.

"The charge this year results in a credit loss ratio of about eight basis points. That's still below where we anticipate to normally operate at between 20 to 30 basis points. We have started to experience some specific impairments. But those are really specific to specific exposures," said Investec financial director Nishlan Samujh.

The Kremlin said on Thursday that a delegation from African countries hoping to present an initiative to end the conflict in Ukraine would visit Moscow.

Several countries have offered to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, including China, whose special envoy began touring Europe this week in a bid to promote Beijing's plan.

Details of the African plan have not been publicly revealed, but South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has said both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russia's Vladimir Putin have agreed to meet African leaders.

"A group of countries will indeed send a delegation, which will also be in Moscow," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, adding the exact dates were yet to be agreed.

"We have already said that we are ready to listen with great attention to any proposals that will contribute to resolving the situation in Ukraine," he said.

Former president Jacob Zuma on Thursday raised serious objections to what he termed the Johannesburg High Court's attempt to muzzle him by limiting his time.

This happened after the full bench of the high court urged legal teams to complete their arguments at 13:30 which shortened the proceedings from two to one and a half days.

The request left Zuma's long-winded legal representative Advocate Dali Mpofu with only 90 minutes to wrap up his argument.

Having failed to conclude his arguments within the requested time, Mpofu announced after the tea break that his client, Zuma felt prejudiced by the time constraints.

"My client has asked me to convey to the court that it was his understanding that the matter was set down over two days not one and a half days.

"He learnt only this morning that the matter was now set down over a shorter period. He was of the understanding that the two days was the time he had to make out his case which is why he cancelled all his engagements and travelled all the way here," said Mpofu.

He feels that since the court will not allow him to use the entire time to ventilate his case we should convey the fact that in his view he has never seen anything like this and it can only be a manifestation of [what he described as] the Zuma law."

Presiding over the case, Judge Lebogang Modiba said the time allocation that had been proposed by the legal teams themselves and was why the full bench utilised in making the requested changes to the time allocation.

She added that Mpofu had consistently ignored her warning to watch the time and was granted even more time on Wednesday when he made his arguments.

"The notion that this court is unfair to this client has no basis because this court has allocated him more time than the other parties and that gives him an unfair advantage," said Modiba.

She added that the remarks about the unfair treatment were utterly unacceptable.

"There is no new law that has been applied only to Zuma, as I have demonstrated, the court has actually given him more time," said Modiba.

Before the tea break, Mpofu had made the argument that court should not allow itself to be a playground of the rich and powerful.

He was responding to arguments made the previous day by President Cyril Ramaphosa's legal team when it accused the former president of pursuing frivolous legal proceedings that breached his successor's Constitutional rights.

An animated Mpofu alleged that there was a growing sense that the law was being applied, based on who is being accused.

Mpofu argued that Ramaphosa was "using his immense wealth to employ a Stalingrad approach" to proceedings by pursuing a civil application after Zuma had already pursued criminal proceedings in the same matter.

A full bench ruled in January that Ramaphosa's urgent application against Zuma's private prosecution bid be granted.

The interdict was an interim one and would last until the courts had decided whether the prosecution was lawful and constitutional — Part B of the case, which commenced on Wednesday until Thursday.

Mpofu argued that "there is no logical reason why anyone trying to go to Pretoria from Johannesburg would first take a detour to the North West, then the Free State before making their way to their initial destination."

"This only happens when someone is trying by all means to evade justice. As the younger generation would say, who does this?" said Mpofu.

At the core of Zuma's case against Ramaphosa is his claim that he "demanded" an urgent investigation into Advocate Billy Downer's so-called transgressions but that the president did not act.

Zuma claimed that this alleged action was done to enable the perpetrators or accomplices to escape or evade justice.

He also argued that Ramaphosa "was acting with personal animosity and to drive a personal campaign of undue vilification" of his predecessor.

Mpofu argued that the reason why Zuma's legal team had sent a summons to Ramaphosa's residence was because he was being accused in his p...

South Africans have seen their real salaries lag behind inflation by nearly four percentage points in the past five years, according to a report from payment services house BankservAfrica.

The report, which looked at data for the five years to February 2023, found the average nominal take-home pay in SA increased by 22.8% to R15 438, while core inflation rose came in at 26.6%.

Amid stress from the fallout from Covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, SA's nominal average take-home pay fell behind the rising cost of living in 2022.

Independent economist, Elize Kruger, who compiled the report, said in a statement that the rising costs of production such as fuel, exacerbated by loadshedding and wage demands, was creating a tough environment for salaried workers generally.

Many companies were also trying to quickly reduce their dependence on Eskom, with a "conservative survival" approach from companies not conducive to employment growth, she said.

With a weakening rand, more frequent loadshedding anticipated this winter, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes, local companies could face even more cost pressures in the coming months. Many employers have already indicated that they plan to award 4% to 6% wage increases in the coming year.

"Over the past 18 months, the economic environment has been exceptionally challenging for companies," said Kruger.

"Companies have indicated a shift from potential expansion and investment to becoming less dependent on Eskom and have redirected capital earmarked for investment towards self-sufficiency. This conservative 'survival' approach is not conducive to employment growth in South Africa and also keeps a lid on salary increases," she added.

BankservAfrica said that given the number of salaries paid into the bank account of South Africans that its data captures, it is an early indicator of the state of the employment market.

SA has already seen the number of employed people increase by 258 000 to 16.2-million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Although the increase was partly attributable to a growing workforce, the widening unemployment rate also reflects SA's inability to create enough jobs.

BankservAfrica believes that with a lower economic growth forecast for 2023 compared to 2022, the job market will be even bleaker, leaving very little room for salary improvements.

"Therefore, expect the nominal take-home pay to continue lagging on inflation in the months to come. Until the economic narrative could meaningfully change, expect more of the same in the medium term," said Kruger.

The performance of salaries was so dismal in the past five years that even though pension payments are lower than average salaries in SA, it was better to be a pensioner because their financial situation didn't deteriorate.

BankservAfrica Private Pensions Index showed that private pension payments rose from R7 001 in February 2018 to R10 054 in February 2023, reflecting a 43.6% increase. The highest average nominal pension payment was recorded in July 2022 at R10 483 per month. Kruger said investment performance may have contributed to the growth.

The South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) argues that there is no single plan to address the reading crisis and that the “existing national reading plan” consists of a long list of items that have led to uncoordinated and ad hoc responses by each province.

On Thursday, the 2021 Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) showed that 81% of South African Grade 4 learners could not read for meaning in any language.

The SAHRC notes that this is down from 78% in 2016.

The country was ranked last out of 43 countries and experienced the largest decline of all the countries participating, the commission said.

It is additionally important to note that the South African assessment occurred a year later than most of the countries assessed.

The SAHRC wants Minister of Basic Education Angie Motshekga, who expressed disappointment at the PIRLS results, to treat the findings with urgency and develop a coherent, time-bound national response to the reading crisis.

It reiterated calls for the education department to give effect to the commission’s Right to Read and Write Report, which found that a child must be able to read and write with understanding at a basic level, in their mother language, by the age of 10.

It also found that the inability to write proficiently is a barrier to academic progress and self-expression and that until a child is educated to the requisite minimum level, the constitutional right to a basic education remains unfulfilled.

The State must ensure that all learners with visual disabilities are able to read and write on par with other learners by having access to the same learning materials, with the necessary accommodations made, the commission noted.

Motshekga stated that the decline in results could be attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic, which exacerbated already-poor reading outcomes.

She argued that “this disappointing outcome does not reflect a deterioration in the overall functioning of our basic education system but rather the unprecedented and catastrophic impact of the pandemic on the education of an entire generation of children.”

The commission says while there is some merit to this argument and that over four-million learners have been “catastrophically impacted”, there is currently no coherent plan to accelerate learning and address backlogs experienced by the “Covid generation” or provide quality education to all learners who will come through the system.

“If any reading plan is to be successful, it must be clear on minimum inputs (teacher training; learning and teaching support material; testing; time to teach reading), timelines for implementation and have a specifically allocated budget. There should in short be a single-mindedness across all teaching and learning programs and among all stakeholders and role players in the education field,” said the SAHRC.

Following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement of a peace mission by African heads of State aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the South African government has said the mission is supported by United Nations (UN) secretary general Antonio Guterres.

The South African government is calling for urgent international collaboration for a cessation of hostilities and to prevent further loss of life and displacement of civilians in Ukraine.

An international armed conflict has existed between the two countries since Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

South Africa says the international community, working together with multilateral bodies such as the UN, needs to support meaningful dialogue for peace, and the security and stability of all nations.

Ramaphosa said the peace mission was presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during separate telephone calls on behalf of African Heads of State from Zambia, Senegal, Congo, Uganda, Egypt and South Africa.

Government says it is encouraged by the manner in which the two leaders from Russia and the Ukraine welcomed the initiative and their immediate consent to receiving the African Heads of State, in Moscow and Kiev.

“The principal focus of the mission is to find a peaceful resolution to the devastating conflict in the Ukraine with its cost to human lives and impact on the African continent,” the South African government says.

It is concerned about the effects of the conflict on Africa’s increasing food insecurity, as seen in the rising costs of grain and fertilisers.

Government affirmed South Africa’s commitment to the articles of the UN Charter, including the principle that all members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means.