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Based on the current oil, international fuel and rand prices, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices could be cut by around R1.90 a litre in November, while diesel prices could be lowered by between 69c and 75c a litre.

However, there are still more than two weeks to go before the final prices are set. Fuel prices will only be adjusted on 1 November.

South African fuel prices are largely determined by international oil costs and the rand exchange rate, as oil is priced in dollars.

Oil prices have been extremely volatile as fighting between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza continued.

A wider war in the oil-rich Middle East risks hitting supplies, which could push prices higher. However, a war could also tip the world economy into recession, cooling demand for fuel.

In the first half of October, the Brent crude oil price averaged $87.50 a barrel, compared to an average of $92.60 in September, says Annabel Bishop, group chief economist at Investec.

International petroleum product prices used in South Africa are substantially lower to date in October than September, she added.

"On a rand basis, too, oil prices are lower to date in October, averaging R1 665/barrel for October, compared to September's first half of the month, which saw the rand Brent crude oil price average R1 715/barrel."

After briefly weakening to above R19.50/$ last week, the rand was trading at R18.77/$ on Monday afternoon. It started the month at R18.90.

Fuel prices have seen large hikes in recent months, due in most part to a rally in oil prices. Petrol (95 unleaded) now retails for R25.68 a litre in Gauteng, from R21.40 at the start of 2023. The wholesale price of diesel in Gauteng is now R25.01 a litre, from R19.31 as recently as June this year.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) has provided clarity on the discussion between Minister Naledi Pandor and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Dirco said Pandor received a request to call Haniyeh to discuss getting humanitarian aid to Gaza and other Palestinian territories.

Pandor echoed South Africa's solidarity and support of Palestine and expressed sadness for the loss of innocent lives in Palestine and Israel.

Hamas has confirmed that the phone call from Pandor expressing support and solidarity was well received.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs affirmed South Africa's endeavour to stop the Zionist aggression against Gaza and its rejection of the displacement of citizens from Gaza, and indicated [her] country's readiness to provide humanitarian assistance to those affected in Gaza," the resistance movement said.

Dirco reiterated that the Minister's call with Haniyeh was consistent with South Africa's readiness to facilitate a dialogue to end the ongoing conflict.

"The reports that Minister Pandor also offered support for the 'Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood' are untrue and meant to impugn the Minister and government of South Africa," said Dirco spokesperson Clayson Monyela.

Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said reports that government offered support to Hamas were false.

"We do not have a bilateral relationship with Hamas. We have bilateral ties with the Palestinian Authority. Support for the Palestinian struggle against occupation does not equate to support for Hamas," he said.

Meanwhile, Dirco said it is ready to lend its hand to mediation and conflict resolution efforts.

"South Africa, therefore, calls on all sides to seize the opportunity for peace as opposed to violence, and for the international community to actively advocate for the implementation of its own international resolutions and establish a credible peace process," said Monyela.

What does one do to improve our conditions? When one reads about the notion of hope, some of it is in dense theoretical books (as in Ernst Bloch's massive theoretical treatise The Principle of Hope 3 vols, MIT Press 1995) and others more accessible. My understanding is that hope is not the same as optimism, or hope cannot be seen as the opposite of pessimism. (See Terry Eagleton, Hope without optimism, University of Virginia Press, 2015, Rebecca Solnit, Hope in the Dark. Untold Histories, Wild Possibilities, 3 ed. Haymarket Books Chicago, 2016).

In the case of optimism or pessimism, one simply has a sense that things will get better or worse, without one doing anything. That's how it will be and one is or is not an optimist or a pessimist. Optimism/pessimism will perpetuate passivity. What people need is to find a role for themselves, to exercise their subjective agency.

Rebecca Solnit writes of why she wrote on hope, as "speaking directly to the inner life of the politics of the moment, to the emotions and perceptions that underlie our political positions and engagements. Amazed by the ravenous appetite for another way of telling who and where we were, I decided to write this. book". (Solnit, p. xiii. My italics).

This is how Solnit conceives hope:

"It's important to say what hope is not: it is not the belief that everything was, is, or will be fine. The evidence is all around us of tremendous suffering and tremendous destruction. The hope I'm interested in is about broad perspectives with specific possibilities, ones that invite or demand that we act. It's also not a sunny everything-is getting-better narrative, though it may be a counter to the everything-is-getting-worse narrative. You could call it an account of complexities and uncertainties, with openings. 'Critical thinking without hope is cynicism, but hope without critical thinking is naivete,' the Bulgarian writer Maria Popova recently remarked. And Patrise Cullors, one of the founders of Black Lives Matter, early on described the movement's mission as to 'Provide hope and inspiration for collective action to build collective power to achieve collective transformation, rooted in grief and rage but pointed towards visions and dreams.' It's a statement that grief and hope can coexist." (At pp. xiii-xiv).

The sense of or recourse to hope is a different type of orientation from optimism or pessimism. It does not work on certainties or rely on conditions that point to future victories. "Hope locates itself in the premises that we don't know what will happen and that in the spaciousness of uncertainty is room to act. When you recognise uncertainty, you recognise that you may be able to influence the outcomes - you alone or you in concert with a few dozen or several million others. Hope is an embrace of the unknown and the unknowable, an alternative to the certainty of both optimists and pessimists. Optimists think it will all be fine without our involvement; pessimists take the opposite position; both excuse themselves from acting. It's the belief that what we do matters even though how and when it may matter, who and what it may impact, are not things we can know beforehand." (Solnit, at p. xiv).

Shakespeare captures this sense of navigating uncertainty when Banquo, in Macbeth asks the Witches:

"If you can look into the seeds of time

And say which grain will grow and which will not,

Speak then to me." (I. 3. 22-3)

The notion of hope draws on lessons of history that can inspire our actions today and understandings of or openings for action in the present. One looks at the present for signs or germs of what could grow into something fresh and new, that may lead to the retrieval of what we have lost in recent years.

In this case, in particular, we can look at the history of the liberation of South Africa, when in the 1960s, the idea of being a free and democratic state led by Nelson Mandela and the ANC was something that was hoped for by many. But there were very few sig...

The atmosphere in South Africa in October 2023 is one of pervasive despair, a sense of depression and disillusionment, that things are bad and will never get better.

This is partly based on a belief that there is nothing that can be done to remedy what is happening, at the instance primarily of the liberation movement that led the country to freedom in 1994, the ANC, then headed by Nelson Mandela.

The early years of the ANC- led government, initially in a Government of National Unity, saw some important gains in education, health care, basic resources like water, electricity and housing and a number of other areas of life.

In later years, especially, after the rise of Jacob Zuma, in 2006, to the presidency, first of the ANC, and then of the country in 2008, many of these gains were reversed, not merely through failure to implement policies.

These setbacks derived primarily through wholesale looting of the fiscus, of the resources of the country that were meant to be used to better the lives of the poor and marginalised.

Many people had devoted their lives to the struggle under the leadership of the ANC, although there were other organisations involved in that liberation. Many of those who were in the ANC and the SACP and remained honest, were reluctant to withdraw from these organisations, despite the stealing, and believed that it was best to try to change them from within.

In my own case, I did withdraw from and break formal links with the ANC and SACP and did my best, mainly though analysis, to indicate what was wrong, from the early years of the Zuma presidency.

I did not condemn everyone who remained within the ANC, nor did I devote much energy to individuals -generally. I do believe that there are some who remained and remain within the ANC because they have believed-in good faith- that they could change it from within.

They have been proved wrong. That does not fill me with joy. Some are still trying to renew the ANC from within. I do not question the ethical reasons that led and continues to lead them to remain within the ANC. Many of these do try to continue the fight for freedom and transformation for which so many devoted or sacrificed their lives. They hoped to see these aspirations realised and often did not believe they would necessarily live to see the 1994 liberation, let alone the transformed society we hoped would be put in place afterwards.

Unfortunately, what has happened after the removal of Jacob Zuma has become as serious, if not more so, than the earlier looting. What are described by some as the "wasted years" of the Zuma period have continued to be "wasted years", if that is an adequate short hand description of what has happened- that period continues.

In the post-Zuma period life continues to be cheap and it has included widespread lawlessness permeating the police services themselves on a fairly extensive basis, with guns being supplied through the police to criminal elements in places like the Western Cape. In many parts of the country members of the security forces, as well as ad hoc policing mechanisms set up, as in Gauteng, have used illegal force against innocent citizens or even people who have broken minor regulations.

Force that was unnecessary to effect an arrest or to prevent something illegal has been used, as a continuing pattern of the functioning of police services, as happened extensively in the period of lockdown during the Covid epidemic. What is concerning is that very few police are held responsible for their legal breaches and acts of violence.

The question of fraud is no longer purely one of the earlier State Capture. State capture initiated by the Gupta family, led to the controlling of ministries within the South African government and diverting resources from the fiscus. This stopped insofar as the Guptas are no longer the initiators (as far as we know). But that particular route to wealth has continued, with some variations, through other people engaging in irregular or ...

Forget the estimated 370 000 green hydrogen jobs President Cyril Ramaphosa enthused would be created; South Africa's first citizen mooted a public holiday should the Springboks win the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Speaking on Monday at the second green hydrogen summit in Cape Town, Ramaphosa began his address by telling delegates he could not get hold of French President Emmanuel Macron "to commiserate" with him after the tense one-point South Africa win during the quarter-final clash between the Springboks and host nation France in Paris on Sunday evening.

Ramaphosa, with an evident wry smile, said he and Macron often spoke "about the highs and the lows of both of our countries".

"I'm sure we will be able to talk later," he added, a cheeky smile etched on his face.

Ramaphosa proposed a day off for the country should the national rugby team emerge victorious and retain the William Webb Ellis trophy - the sport's holy grail - after the 28 October final in Paris.

"South Africans are revelling in this incredible success that our boys have achieved in Paris. Many of them [South Africans] felt that we should declare [Monday] as a public holiday, and I declined, and I said we would only consider that when they [the Springboks] win the final, which I will be personally present [for]," he said.

Ahead of Sunday's game, Ramaphosa spoke with SA Rugby director Rassie Erasmus to wish the Springboks well, promising to attend the final should the team make it that far.

Meanwhile, when he got down to the day's business, the president stated the Cabinet-approved investment strategy listed "green hydrogen as one of the big frontier strategic sectors expected to attract foreign and domestic direct investment".

He said "the hydrogen economy" could lead to a job and small business boom in South Africa should it be implemented.

"It has been estimated that the hydrogen economy has the potential to add 3.6% to our GDP by 2050 and approximately 370 000 jobs," Ramaphosa added.

"Proper planning, regulation and incentive schemes are critical to mobilise private sector investment.

"South Africa has deep capital markets with world-class conditions for generating renewable energy through solar and wind power, which are key drivers of the production of green hydrogen."

The African National Congress's (ANC's) application to the Constitutional Court to block the handing over of its cadre deployment records to the Democratic Alliance (DA) is "merely a further attempt...to delay the inevitable", argues DA MP Leon Schreiber.

He filed a responding affidavit to ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula's application to the apex court to overturn a high court ruling that the governing party must hand over its cadre deployment committee's records from January 2013, when President Cyril Ramaphosa became committee chairperson and several State capture-related appointments were made.

Mbalula's application was filed three days after the deadline for appealing a Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruling.

Schreiber has been locked in lawfare with the ANC since 2021, when he approached the high court for relief after the ANC refused his application in terms of the Promotion of Access to Information Act (PAIA).

In February, Judge Willem Wepener of the Gauteng High Court in Johannesburg found the ANC's decision not to provide the documents unlawful and ordered the party to hand over the documents, including meeting minutes, WhatsApp conversations, email threads, CVs and all other records of the cadre deployment committee.

Schreiber had to convince the court that he needed the information to protect certain rights, and he advanced three rights:

The first was the DA's wishes to enact legislation about cadre deployment and it, therefore, needed the information to understand what cadre deployment entails and what its impact could be.

Second, as an MP, Schreiber has an oversight duty over appointments in state organs.

Third, people not appointed in the public service could use the information to challenge unlawful and irregular appointments.

Wepener was not convinced by the third ground but agreed with Schreiber on the first two.

"In my view, it is indeed so that the parliamentary oversight is best served with full knowledge of all the factors that go into the appointment of officials," read his judgment.

He ordered the ANC to hand over the cadre deployment records within five days.

The ANC unsuccessfully applied for leave to appeal. Then, on the day it was meant to hand over the records, the governing party launched an application directly to the SCA.

In this application, Mbalula argued that Wepener had "incorrectly found" that the ANC was legally obliged to hand over the documents to Schreiber, who is spearheading the DA's fight against cadre deployment for the "exercise of his parliamentary oversight role or for the exercise of his unspecified rights, which have not been properly spelled out".

"The applicant's [ANC] constitutional rights to privacy, equality and dignity have been infringed by the high court's order and judgment," stated Mbalula.

He argued that the freedom to receive or impart information or ideas did not include a right to a private individual's information that they do not want to disclose.

Mbalula stated: "The public does not have a general right to receive information on cadre deployment."

On 4 September, the SCA found the ANC's application had "no reasonable prospects of success" and dismissed it with costs. This meant the ANC had to provide the documents to the DA within five days.

In his late application to the Constitutional Court, Mbalula argues that MPs don't have the right to access information through PAIA.

Section 32(1) of the Constitution, which gave rise to the PAIA, states: "Everyone has the right of access to ­(a) any information held by the state; and (b) any information that is held by another person and that is required for the exercise or protection of any rights."

However, Mbalula said, MPs aren't "everyone".

He stated: "I am advised that while Section 32 of the Constitution guarantees the right of 'everyone', this does not extend to organs of state.

"I am advised that, in seeking to rely on his powers and privileges as a Member of Parliament, Mr Schreiber was exercising a power o...

President Cyril Ramaphosa has called for a stop to "acts of war" from Israel and Palestine, and is urging the reopening of humanitarian corridors, as Palestinian civilians face the brunt of Israeli retaliation, following an attack by Hamas.

Ramaphosa pointed out that in armed conflicts, civilians are affected most.

"The sheer scale of human suffering is a grim reminder that it is civilians who bear the brunt in armed conflict and who pay the heaviest price. We stand firm against violence directed at civilians; against the killing of children, the elderly, the infirm and non-combatants; against the targeting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals; and against the collective punishment of civilian populations," he said.

While he acknowledged the trauma felt on both sides of the conflict, Ramaphosa stressed the importance of resolving the conflict through a United Nations-led peace process.

He also emphasised the need for a two-State solution to end the conflict, which has been raging on for over 75 years.

Ramaphosa pointed to South Africa's apartheid past and the hard won reconciliation and peace achieved, which he said was possible for Israel and Palestine if there was "demonstrable political will".

"Without justice, there can be no peace. The cycle of violence that has been unleashed is the tragic outcome of decades of unmet and unfulfilled possibilities to peacefully solve the problem between Israelis and Palestinians. The international community has a responsibility to support peace and to create favourable conditions for negotiation and dialogue, and not to fan the flames of conflict. World leaders need to, and must, make a call for peace and not vengeance," he stated.

The US, France and the UK have all stated strong support for Israel, which has cut off Palestine's access to food, water, power and medical supplies and which has forced half of the Palestinian population to move further South owing to planned attacks in the North.

Ramaphosa stood firm that the deprivation of essential goods and services was prohibited under international law.

"The wanton attack on civilians in Israel and the siege of Gaza and the decision to forcibly expel a population of over one-million people from Gaza, together with the indiscriminate use of force, lays the basis for further suffering and death on a huge scale. Acts of collective punishment like cutting electricity, food, water, medical and other essential supplies to civilian populations are abhorrent, as is the deliberate destruction of people's homes," he said.

The rights of the oppressed and the right to use arms as a means of defence must be done within the bounds of the Geneva Conventions, Ramaphosa appealed.

"The images of the killing of civilians in Israel by Hamas just over a week ago and the ongoing killing of civilians in Gaza by Israeli forces goes against the tenets of international law, which prohibits the targeting of non-combatants, especially women, the aged and children," he noted.

He called on Israel and Palestine to "come together" to reconcile but also insisted that Palestinian's human rights, dignity and nationhood must be fulfilled for there to be lasting peace.

Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) executive director Dr Gilad Isaacs noted on Friday that the country's debt trajectory is of concern, especially if there is no credible growth strategy.

Isaacs was speaking during the IEJ webinar on the fiscal crisis, where he said the critical issue facing South Africa's borrowing was the cost of debt - that is high interest rates - combined with a lack of effective growth strategy.

The IEJ estimated an updated revenue shortfall of R52.4-billion if no changes are made for the rest of the 2023/24 period. This is within historical norms. In 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20 revenue shortfalls ranged from R58.2-billion to R70.1-billion.

Based on current trends, an expenditure overrun of between R67.9-billion and R105.8-billion is projected for 2023/24.

The IEJ highlighted that the largest share of this was R37.5-billion from the "predictable but unbudgeted" public sector wage bill increase. The overspend was a little higher than other years and the revenue shortfall and expenditure overspend compounds one another, said Isaacs.

IEJ research shows that South Africa's current debt levels should not be characterised as being at "crisis" proportions.

The research suggests that the country's debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, at 71.4% in 2022/23, is in line with the emerging market and middle-income country average of 69% in 2022/23.

"While the acute budget mismatches can be relatively easily managed, repeated revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns would be unsustainable over the medium term. The only credible strategy to tackle debt levels is through economic expansion," he said.

He highlighted that the rushed and indiscriminate budget cuts currently being pushed through by National Treasury would cause economic contraction.

SOLVING IMMEDIATE BUDGET MISMATCH

The IEJ's research suggests that the budget mismatches and further pressures on the horizon provide an opportunity for the fundamental reform of South Africa's fiscal framework to centre the role and potential of the budget in advancing developmental priorities.

"Use some of the R459-billion owed to the South African government in the Reserve Bank's somewhat obscure Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account. This is in keeping with other major central banks remitting profits to their respective Treasuries," he said.

He highlighted that short-term borrowing must be increased, explaining that even if the entire mismatch was closed in this way it would increase the gross debt-to-GDP ratio by about two percentage points only.

"In this scenario the debt trajectory would still be considerably lower than Treasury's own debt-to-GDP forecasts from 2019, 2020 and 2021."

Isaacs explained that, in the short term, revenue can be raised through the removal of tax breaks for high-income earners, the removal of selected tax breaks for corporates and restoring the corporate income tax rate to 28%.

"Removing tax breaks for those earning above R750 000 (around 2.9% of the working population) would alone raise an estimated R83-billion."

He added that exploring raising additional taxes through increased taxation on wealth and income from financial assets, tackling illicit financial flows, and capturing rents and windfalls were other options.

He noted that a general increase in the VAT rate would make the tax mix more regressive, fail to raise the sums needed, and disproportionately burden poor and low-income earners.

The only VAT increase that would be defensible would be the introduction of a higher VAT rate on luxuries, he said.

Two South Africans have died in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco).

Dirco spokesperson Clayson Monyela said: "The Department of International Relations and Cooperation can confirm that we have been notified that two South African nationals have died in this ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel."

"The verification process is currently under way because one of the individuals is reported to have an Israeli ID number, so we need to determine whether there is dual citizenship or what the picture is."

The South African missions in Ramallah and Tel Aviv are coordinating efforts and rendering consular assistance and services to the families, Monyela added.

The Supreme Court of Appeal has confirmed that Jacob Zuma's private prosecution of State advocate Billy Downer and this writer was "without foundation", part of his Stalingrad litigation campaign and aimed at delaying, obstructing and preventing his corruption trial.

In a scathing ruling that was supported by SCA President Mahube Molemela and three other SCA judges, Judge Nathan Ponnan dismissed Zuma's appeal against the enforcement of the KwaZulu-Natal High Court's invalidation of his private prosecution.

Zuma had sought to privately prosecute Downer and this writer on the basis that his corruption trial prosecutor had violated the National Prosecuting Authority Act by allowing court papers - which contained a note from one of his military doctors - to be shared with this writer by another NPA counsel, Andrew Breitenbach, SC.

Ponnan found on Friday that the private prosecution was "without any foundation in either fact (Mr Downer did not disclose Mr Zuma's doctor's report to Ms Maughan and there was no breach of confidentiality or privacy) or law (no cognisable offence has been committed, even if all of the facts alleged by Mr Zuma are true)".

"The respondents (Downer and this writer) appearing as accused persons in an abusive private prosecution will undeniably compromise public confidence in the courts and the administration of justice," he said.

In a major boost for the State's efforts to ensure that Zuma's arms deal corruption trial is not delayed by the former president's planned second application to force Downer's removal, Ponnan further ruled: "The private prosecution is part of the 'Stalingrad strategy' announced by Mr Zuma's counsel to Hugo J over a decade and a half ago, when he said: 'This is not like a fight between two champ fighters. This is more like Stalingrad. It's burning house to burning house.' It is further demonstrated by the patent lack of substance to the charges; by the fact that Mr Zuma has clearly not pursued the prosecution as would someone intent on obtaining a conviction; and, by Mr Zuma's identification of witnesses," he added, in a ruling that confirmed the High Court's finding that the private prosecution was an "abuse of the process of court" that had been pursued for an ulterior purpose.

As such, he contended, the enforcement ruling should stand because it prevented that abuse from continuing, while Zuma continued his bids to appeal the invalidation of his private prosecution.

"On each occasion that the respondents (Downer and this writer) are compelled to appear in the criminal dock, their personal liberty is further inhibited and human dignity further eroded. The indignity is compounded by the personal insults that they, and in particular Ms Maughan, has to endure especially on social media. Mr Zuma shrugs that the social media abuse of Ms Maughan is 'an occupational hazard' and 'comes with the territory. Nothing could be further from the truth," Ponnan stated.

"What Mr Zuma fails to appreciate is that these violations constitute a steady erosion not just of her liberty and dignity but will also likely discourage other journalists from reporting on powerful individuals for fear of similar reprisals. Guaranteeing the freedom of the press and public confidence in judicial authority and the administration of justice is an ongoing process and requires constant vigilance."

"In the case of Ms Maughan, it bears emphasis that freedom of the press and the principle of open justice are closely interrelated. Free speech goes hand in hand with open justice, which is a fundamental principle of the common law. There is a necessary interdependence between the court and the press. It has thus come to be accepted that the media, reporting accurately and fairly on legal proceedings and judgments, make an invaluable contribution to public confidence in the judiciary and, thus, to the rule of law itself," he stressed earlier.

Ponnan further expressed the full Bench's unhappiness over Zuma's attacks on it....