Power Problems

Jennifer Lind, Associate Professor at Dartmouth College, argues that China’s rise now means the world is back to a bipolar balance of power. She provides insight into how U.S. foreign policy should manage this new reality and discusses why polarity is important, how to measure the balance of power, how stable unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems are, the major points of conflict between the US and China, and what to do about Taiwan, among other topics. 

Show Notes

• Jennifer Lind, “Back to Bipolarity: How China's Rise Transformed the Balance of Power,” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 7–55.

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Miranda Priebe, senior political scientist at RAND, discusses US strategy towards Europe and Asia and how to manage relations with Russia and China. She talks about changes to US posture towards Europe and Russia following the Ukraine war, NATO strategy, how to manage the Russia-China relationship, and potential changes to US posture in Asia, particularly towards Taiwan. She also touches upon the ‘isolationist’ label, the complicated politics of restraint, and how to put diplomacy at the forefront of US foreign policy, among other topics. 

Show Notes

• Miranda Priebe, Jasen Castillo, “Here’s why Trump’s foreign policy is hard to pin down,” MSNBC.com, December 28, 2024.
• Miranda Priebe, John Schuessler, Bryan Rooney, Jasen Castillo; “Competing Visions of Restraint.” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 135–169.
• Miranda Priebe and Sam Charap, :”Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’s the Wrong Question.” The Washington Quarterly, 47(3), 143–159.
• Miranda Priebe, et al. “Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023.
• Miranda Priebe and Sam Charan, “Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024.

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Oona Hathaway, professor of international law at Yale University, addresses President Trump’s plans to expand US territory into Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada. She discusses international law, the causes of the decline in interstate war, the difference between norms and laws, the problem of enforcement, tensions between norms against conquest and the need for a negotiated peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, among other topics. 

Show Notes

• Oona A. Hathaway, Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World, Simon & Schuster, 2017.

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Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. 

Show Notes

Sam Bresnick, “The Obstacles to China’s AI Power,” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024

Sam Bresnick, et al., “Which Ties Will Bind?” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024

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Julia Gledhill, Research Associate for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, discusses the “permanent war economy” and ongoing efforts to increase military spending. She also talks about perverse incentives for defense contractors, the myth that military spending is properly construed as a jobs program, and the lack of strategic thinking in policy debates on how to confront China, among other issues. 

Show Notes

• Julia Gledhill, “The Truth about the Permanent War Economy,” Stimson Center Issue Brief, December 2, 2024.

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Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. 

Show Notes

Anatol Lieven, “Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine,” UnHerd, November 30, 2024.

Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024.

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Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the recent rebel advances in Syria, the causes and conditions that paved the way for the fall of the Assad regime, the many mistakes of US policy since the start of the civil war, and the regional politics wrapped up in Syria’s future. 

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Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, discusses the foreign policy implications of Trump’s victory, the extent to which it represents a rejection of “Liberal Hegemony,” and why Trump failed in his first term to set U.S. foreign policy on a new course. He also discusses the bureaucratic challenges of reforming foreign policy, what to expect from Trump in the second term, and the potentially beneficial constraints of “American decline,” among other topics. 

Show Notes

• Stephen M. Walt, “The 10 Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 Election,” Foreign Policy, November 8, 2024.

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Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Brandan P. Buck, research fellow at the Cato Institute, discuss the impact of foreign policy in Trump’s electoral victory, whether Democrats will rethink their foreign policy agenda following their losses, what changes Trump might make with respect to the wars in Europe and the Middle East and towards China, among other topics. 

Show Notes

Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, “America’s Foreign Policy Inertia,” Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024

Brandan P. Buck, “Harris Embrace of Cheney Goes Back to World War I,” Responsible Statecraft, October 22, 2024

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Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, discusses America’s new regime of high protective tariffs under the Trump and Biden administrations and assesses what may be to come on trade policy under a future Trump or Harris administration. He discusses the overly expansive authorities presidents have to impose tariffs, the weakness of commonly employed national security justifications for them, and the economics of why tariffs fail, among other topics.

Show Notes

• Clark Packard and Scott Lincicome, "Presidential Tariff Powers and the Need for Reform," Cato Institute Briefing Paper No. 179, October 9, 2024
• Scott Lincicome, "Six-Plus Years of Incoherent, Ineffective China Policy," The Dispatch, October 2, 2024

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