Power Problems

Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses the increasing instability in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, Russia's war in Ukraine and the implications for the US role in the world, and rising US-China tensions over Taiwan. He also talks about the risks of emerging economic nationalism, middle powers, the US addiction to primacy and American exceptionalism, and the problems of trying to manage global politics from Washington. 

Show Notes

• Robert Manning bio
• Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “The ‘New’ New Middle East and Its Consequences,” Stimson Center, October 11, 2023. 
• Robert A. Manning and Matthew Burrows, “Red Cell: The Fallacy of Perpetual US Primacy,” Stimson Center, February 7, 2023.
• Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “Is the US Getting Multilateralism Wrong?” Stimson Center, April 11, 2023.
• Robert A. Manning, “Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?” Stimson Center, October 27, 2023.

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William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft explains the problem of retired military brass working for the arms industry and how this revolving door tends to militarize U.S. foreign policy. He also discusses China's military buildup and why it shouldn't automatically translate to bigger U.S. defense budgets. Other topics include the military industrial complex, Eisenhower's Farewell Address, the Pentagon's inability to pass an audit, and threat inflation, among others.

Show Notes

• William Hartung and Dillon Fisher, "March of the Four-Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry, " Quincy Brief No. 47, October 4, 2023.
• William Hartung, "Reality Check: Chinese Military Spending in Context," Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute, December 5, 2023.
• William Hartung, "Good Times for the Military Industrial Complex," TomDispatch.com, November 12, 2023.

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Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective. 

Show Notes

• Jennifer Kavanagh bio
• Jennifer Kavanagh and Frederic Wehrey, "Washington's Looming Middle Eastern Quagmire," Foreign Affairs, November 24, 2023.
• Jennifer Kavanagh and Bryan Frederick, "Why Force Fails," Foreign Affairs, March 30, 2023

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Weaponizing global supply chains is self-defeating and alters supply chain networks in ways that accelerate, rather than slow China’s rise. University of Connecticut assistant professor Miles Evers discusses how business-state relationships affect international relations. He also describes how economic coercion drives away potential allies and business, which allows China to innovate and increase its share of global trade despite US sanctions.

Show Notes

• Miles Evers bio
• Ling S. Chen and Miles M. Evers, “’Wars without Gun Smoke’: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft,” International Security 48, no. 2 (Fall 2023): pp. 164-204.
• Miles M. Evers, “Discovering the Prize: Information, Lobbying, and the Origins of US–Saudi Security Relations,” European Journal of International Relations 29, no. 1 (March 2023): pp. 104-128.
• Miles M. Evers, “Just the Facts: Why Norms Remain Relevant in an Age of Practice,” International Theory 12, no. 2 (2020): pp. 220-230.
• Geoffrey Gertz and Miles M. Evers, “Geoeconomic Competition: Will State Capitalism Win?” The Washington Quarterly 43, no. 2 (2020): pp. 117-136. 

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Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility.

Show Notes

• Joshua Byun bio
• D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy Blog, September 6, 2023.
• Joshua Byun and Do Young Lee, “The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 44, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 67-87.
• D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy (September 5, 2023).

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Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the work of renowned realist thinker Reinhold Niebuhr. He explores Niebuhr’s views on war, politics, and American Exceptionalism, and argues that Niebuhr's restraint-oriented ideas are just what is needed in contemporary debates about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the rivalry with China. 

Show Notes

• Christopher Chivvis bio
• Christopher S. Chivvis, “The Humility of Restraint: Niebuhr’s Insights for a More Grounded Twenty-First-Century American Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace working paper, November 22, 2021.
• Christopher S. Chivvis, “Some Politicians Seem Comfortable with the Idea of a New Cold War. They Shouldn’t.” The Guardian, February 22, 2023.

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Justin Logan, Cato’s director of defense and foreign policy studies, and Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at Cato, discuss the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas and the imperative of avoiding further U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. They talk about the deep problems with the Abraham Accords, Biden's misguided bid for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, how client states employ "reverse leverage" on their U.S. patron, whether Israel can avoid America's post-9/11 mistakes, and the prospects for a genuine change in U.S. policy towards this region, among other issues. 

Show Notes

• Justin Logan bio
• Jon Hoffman bio
• Jon Hoffman and Justin Logan, “Time to Change Course in the Middle East,” National Interest, October 21, 2023.
• Justin Logan, “The Hamas-Israel War,” Cato at Liberty, October 14, 2023.
• Jon Hoffman, “Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 961, September 20, 2023.
• Jon Hoffman, “A Shaky Foundation,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 939, December 20, 2022.
• Justin Logan, “The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East,” Defense Priorities, September 30, 2020.

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The U.S.'s frequent use of force abroad erodes the international order's most fundamental principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway discusses the erosion of domestic constraints on presidential war powers and the increasing official resort to untenable self-defense doctrines to justify its military actions under international law. She also explains why chipping away at the prohibition on the use of force undermines international order, among other topics.

Show Notes

• Oona Hathaway bio
• Oona A. Hathaway, “How the Expansion of ‘Self-Defense’ Has Undermined Constraints on the Use of Force,” Just Security, September 18, 2023.
• Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).
• Oona A. Hathaway et al., “Yemen: Is the U.S. Breaking the Law?” Harvard National Security Journal 10 (2019).
• Oona Hathaway, “National Security Lawyering in the Post-War Era: Can Law Constrain Power?” UCLA Law Review 68, rev. 2 (2021).

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Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations at Brown University, argues that dominant theories of nuclear brinkmanship lack a nuanced understanding of the crucial factor of human psychology. She discusses the psychology of political leaders, the rational actor model, Thomas Schelling's notion of "threats that leave something to chance," the psychology of revenge, the coercive utility of nuclear weapons, and why nuclear deterrence may not be as stable as many people think, among other topics.

• Show Notes
• Rose McDermott bio
• Reid B.C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, “The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship,” International Security 47, no. 3 (2023): pp. 9-51.
• James W. Davis and Rose McDermott, “The Past, Present, and Future of Behavioral IR,” International Organization 75, no. 1 (2022): pp. 147-177.
• Rose McDermott, Anthony C. Lopez, and Peter K. Hatemi, “’Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and Deterrence,” Texas National Security Review 1, no. 1 (November 2017): pp. 68-88.

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Many countries in the Global South would like a more advantageous position in the international order. Sarang Shidore, director of Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft’s Global South Program, discusses why these countries are dissatisfied, what changes they would like to see, and how Washington can respond. He also discusses China strategy in light of the Global South and the role of BRICS and the seemingly tepid response from the Global South in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Show Notes

• Sarang Shidore bio
• Sarang Shidore, “American Power Just Took a Big Hit,” New York Times, September 1, 2023.
• Sarang Shidore, “The Return of the Global South,” Foreign Affairs, August 31, 2023.
• Sarang Shidore, “The Global South’s BRICS Play Should Not Be Dismissed,” The Nation, August 17, 2023.
• Sarang Shidore, “The G20 Is in a Precarious State, but Global Problems Don’t Take a Breather,” The Diplomat, September 8, 2023.

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