Power Problems

Texas A&M associate professor John Schuessler discusses the different ideological pathways to a grand strategy of restraint. He examines realist, conservative, and progressive restrainers and speculates that the rise of great power competition will be a stress test for the survival of this coalition on foreign policy. He also discusses the foreign policy changes in the GOP and restraint differences over China policy, among other topics.

Show Notes

1. John Schuessler bio
2. John Shuessler and Jasen Castillo, “Building Foreign Militaries and Learning the Right Lessons from Afghanistan,” Newsweek, August 17, 2021.
3. John Schuessler, Joshua Shifrinson, and David Blagden, “Revisiting Insularity and Expansion: A Theory Note” Perspectives on Politics, November 12, 2021.

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“Tripwire” forces are deployed overseas to bolster the credibility of America’s threats and promises. New research shows this key feature of U.S. foreign policy is misguided. Professors Paul Musgrave of University of Massachusetts Amherst and Steven Ward of University of Cambridge explain the logic of tripwires as a deterrent and showcase public opinion surveys that undermine that logic.

Show Notes

• Paul Musgrave bio
• Steven Ward bio
• Paul Musgrave and Steven Ward, “The Tripwire Effect: Experimental Evidence Regarding U.S. Public Opinion,” Foreign Policy Analysis 19, no. 4 (October 2023).
• Paul Musgrave and Steven War, “Testing Tripwire Theories Using Survey Experiments,” working paper, American Political Science Association, 2021.
• Doug Bandow, Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World(Washington DC: Cato Institute, 1996).

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The United States sells arms to almost any country willing to pay for them, but many recipients are risky, unstable, undemocratic, and liable to misuse the weapons. Cato defense and foreign policy studies policy analyst Jordan Cohen explains why the U.S. government sells arms to risky countries, why it doesn't give the U.S. strategic leverage, the costs and consequences of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, the problem of cluster munitions, U.S. support for the Nigerian military (which recently executed a coup d'état), and how to reform U.S. arms sales policies. 

Show Notes

• Jordan Cohen bio
• Jordan Cohen and A. Trevor Thrall, “2022 Arms Sales Risk Index,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 953, July 18, 2023.
• Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “When our Weapons Go Missing,” Reason, July 31, 2023.
• Barry R. Posen, “Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory,” Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2023.
• Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Cluster Munitions May Win a Battle but not Ukraine’s War,” Inkstick Media, July 13, 2023.
• Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Did the Pentagon Just Make a $3 Billion Accounting Error – or Did It Do Something Even Worse?” Reason, May 19, 2023.
• Jordan Cohen, “Coups Are Just An Arms (Sale) Length Away: US Weapons Equip Niger’s Military,” Cato at Liberty, August 3, 2023.
• Jordan Cohen, “Deal or No Deal: Explaining Congressional Restrictions on Arms Transfers,” PhD diss (George Mason University, 2023).
• Jon Hoffman, Jordan Cohen, and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Biden Steamrolls toward Disaster in the Middle East,” The Hill, August 2, 2023.

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Michael C. Desch, professor of international relations at University of Notre Dame, discusses the disconnect between political science scholarship and policymaking and offers solutions for how to bridge the gap. 

Show Notes

• Michael C. Desch bio
• Michael C. Desch, Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).
• Paul C. Avey, Michael C. Desch, Eric Parajon, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael J. Tierney, “Does Social Science Inform Foreign Policy? Evidence from a Survey of US National Security, Trade, and Development Officials,” International Studies Quarterly 66, no. 1 (March 2022).
• Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan, “Why Washington Doesn’t Debate Grand Strategy,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 10, no. 4 (Winter 2016): pp. 14-45.

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Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert at the United States Institute for Peace, discusses India's place in global politics, the advantages and drawbacks of deepening U.S.-India relations, India's illiberal turn, Indian relations with Russia, Pakistan, and China, and related topics. He also discusses more restrained alternatives to U.S. naval strategy.

Show Notes

• Sameer Lalwani bio
• Sameer Lalwani and Joshua Shifrinson, “Whither Command of the Commons? Choosing Security over Control,” MIT Political Science Department Research Paper No. 2013-15 (April 1, 2013).
• Sameer Lalwani and Vikram J. Singh, “A Big Step Forward in U.S.-India Defense Ties,” The Hindustan (New Delhi), April 6, 2023.
• Sameer Lalwani et al., “What to Watch in 2023: India’s Pivotal Year on the Global Stage,” United States Institute of Peace, February 8, 2023.
• Sameer Lalwani and Happymon Jacobs, “Will India Ditch Russia?” Foreign Affairs, January 24, 2023.
• Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne, “Great Expectations: Asking Too Much of the US-India Strategic Partnership,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 3 (2019): pp. 41-64.

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CNAS adjunct senior fellow Elsa B. Kania breaks down the military and political implications of artificial intelligence. She discusses the scope of military applications, battlefield "singularity" and the speed of decision-making, human vs autonomous weapons systems, AI competition with China, public-private partnerships, governance of AI, and how AI should affect strategy, among other topics.

Show Notes

• Elsa B. Kania bio
• Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “A Sharper Approach to China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy Begins by Dispelling Myths,” Defense One, February 4, 2021.
• Elsa B. Kania and Joe McReynolds, “The Biden Administration Should Review and Rebuild the Trump Administration’s China Initiative From the Ground Up,” Lawfare, February 22, 2021.
• Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy,” Center for a New American Security, January 28, 2021.
• Elsa B. Kania and John Costello, “Quantum Hegemony? China’s Ambitions and the Challenge to U.S. Innovation Leadership,” Center for a New American Security, September 12, 2018.

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Show Description

Christopher Layne, distinguished professor at Texas A&M University, provides historical context around the Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions direct U.S. intervention on Ukraine's behalf. He discusses the U.S. strategy in Europe following WWII and following the end of the Cold War, NATO expansion, tensions in U.S.-Russian nuclear policies, Russian perspectives and motivations, potential resolutions to the conflict, and what could exacerbate the war.

Show Notes

• Christopher Layne bio
• Christopher Layne, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to Present(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007).
• Benjamin Schwarz and Christopher Layne, “Why Are We in Ukraine?” Harper’s Magazine (June 2023).

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Quincy Institute director of East Asia, Michael D. Swaine explains how to manage the rise in China's power and influence through a restrained grand strategy, rather than through confrontation and primacy. He discusses Chinese diplomacy on the global stage, the problem with Washington's current strategy to contain and confront Beijing, how to alleviate the security dilemma, managing US alliances and altering US force posture in East Asia, and handling the problem of Taiwan, among other topics. 

Show Notes

• Michael D. Swaine bio
• Michael D. Swaine and Andrew Bacevich, “A Restraint Approach to U.S.-China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict,” Quincy Institute paper no. 11, April 18, 2023.
• Michael D. Swaine, “The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy,” The National Interest, February 27, 2023.
• Michael D. Swaine, “What the U.S. Gets Wrong About Taiwan and Deterrence,” The Diplomat, January 23, 2023.

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Notre Dame associate professor Eugene Gholz discusses U.S. strategy, the low costs of neutrality in war, global oil markets and why the U.S. does too much militarily in the Middle East. He also advises a “defensive defense” strategy in East Asia, the ineffectiveness and overuse of economic sanctions, and decoupling from China. 

Show Notes

• Eugene Gholz bio
• Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “The Effects of Wars on Neutral Countries: Why it Doesn't Pay to Preserve the Peace,” Security Studies 10, no. 4 (2001): pp. 1-57.
• Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest,” Security Studies 19, no. 3 (2010): pp. 453-485.
• Eugene Gholz, “Nothing Much to Do: Why America Can Bring All Troops Home From the Middle East,” Quincy Paper No. 7, June 24, 2021.
• Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 4 (2019): pp. 171-189.
•  Eugene Gholz and Llewelyn Hughes, “Market Structure and Economic Sanctions: The 2010 Rare Earth Elements Episode as a Pathway Case of Market Adjustment,” Review of International Political Economy 28, no. 3 (2021): pp. 611-634.

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King’s College professor Richard Ned Lebow discusses his vast body of work on international politics. He talks about his cultural theory of international politics, Thucydides, realism, deterrence, Russia and the causes of the Ukraine war, and hegemonic stability theory, among other topics. 

Show Notes

1. Richard Ned Lebow bio
2. Richard Ned Lebow, The Quest For Knowledge in International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2022).
3. Richard Ned Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009).
4. Richard Ned Lebow, Why Nations Fight: Past and Future Motives for War (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2010).
5. Richard Ned Lebow, Avoiding War, Making Peace (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).
6. Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989).
7. Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981).
8. Simon Reich and Richard Ned Lebow, Good-Bye Hegemony! Power and Influence in the Global System (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014).

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