Power Problems

Pusan National University professor Robert E. Kelly looks back at Trump era policies toward North Korea, discusses what a deal with Pyongyang might entail, the impact of South Korean politics, and whether changes in US posture can alter the persistent status quo on the peninsula. 

Show Notes

1. Robert E. Kelly bio
2. Robert E. Kelly, “The Persistent Status Quo with North Korea: Why Has so Little Changed since 2017?,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 31, no. 3 (2019).
3. Robert E. Kelly and Paul Poast, “The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away with Bullying Its Friends,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 2 (March/April 2022).
4. Robert E. Kelly, “In Defense of North Korean Sanctions,” Korea Observer 53, no. 2 (Summer 2022).

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Jasen Castillo, associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University, discusses the role of nuclear weapons and deterrence in the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Show Notes:

• Jasen Castillo bio
• Jasen Castillo, “The Nuclear Risks in Russia’s War with Ukraine Are Real,” Chicago Tribune, October 31, 2022. 
• Jasen Castillo, “The Cold Comfort of Mutually Assured Destruction,” War on the Rocks, June 16, 2021.
• Luke Henkhaus, “What Does Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Mean for the Wider War?” Texas A&M Today, September 20, 2022

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Brian Finucane, senior adviser at International Crisis Group, and Brianna Rosen, Senior Fellow at Just Security, discuss how the Global War on Terror is still ongoing and has allowed the executive branch to usurp war making authority from Congress, with disastrous and illiberal results.

Show Notes

• Brianna Rosen bio
• Brian Finucane bio
• “Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror,” Crisis Group Report No. 5, September 17, 2021.
• Brian Finucane, “Still at War: The United States in the Sahel,” Just Security, April 7, 2022.
• Brian Finucane, “Assessing Biden’s New Policy Framework for Counterterrorism Direct Action,” Just Security, October 11, 2022.
• Brianna Rosen, “Ending Perpetual War,” Just Security, October 25, 2022.
• Tess Bridgeman and Brianna Rosen, “Introduction to Symposium: Still at War – Where and Why the United States is Fighting the ‘War on Terror,’” Just Security, March 24, 2022.

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Stephen M. Walt, Harvard University professor of international affairs, discusses the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, the risk of nuclear escalation, and the potential for a prolonged stalemate. He also proposes a new future for NATO as well as suggestions for how to stabilize great power rivalry on both the economic and military fronts, particularly with China. 

Show Notes

• Stephen Walt bio
• Stephen M. Walt, “Russia’s Defeat Would Be America’s Problem,” Foreign Policy, September 27, 2022.
• Stephen M. Walt, “Which NATO Do We Need?” Foreign Policy, September 14, 2022.
• Stephen M. Walt, “Why Wars Are Easy to Start and Hard to End,” Foreign Policy, August 29, 2022.
• Dani Rodrik and Stephen M. Walt, “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).

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Stimson Center senior fellow Emma Ashford and University of Birmingham professor and Cato adjunct scholar Patrick Porter discuss the intensification of the war in Ukraine, Putin's nuclear threats, realist perspectives on Russian objectives, and possible US policy responses. 

1. Emma Ashford bio
2. Patrick Porter bio
3. Emma Ashford, “In Praise of Lesser Evils,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
4. Justin Logan, Benjamin H. Friedman, and Patrick Porter, “We’re Not All Ukrainians Now,” Politico Europe, May 17, 2022.
5. Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “How Should the West Respond to Putin’s Military Mobilization?” Foreign Policy, September 23, 2022.
6. Patrick Porter, “The Realist Boogeyman,” The Critic, June 15, 2022.

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The increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship is subject to various perverse incentives and negative feedback loops. Jessica Chen Weiss, Cornell University Professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies, discusses China’s rise and how to avoid a zero-sum and conflict-prone great power relationship.

Show Notes:

• Jessica Chen Weiss bio
• Jessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Perilous Logic of Zero-Sum Competition,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).
• Thomas Pepinsky and Jessica Chen Weiss, “The Clash of Systems? Washington Should Avoid Ideological Competition with Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2021.
• Alistair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations,” International Security 44, no. 2 (Fall 2019): pp. 9-60.

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When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, many cyber security analysts expected Russia to rely far more heavily on cyber tactics. Marine Corps University distinguished senior fellow Brandon Valeriano discusses the pitfalls of cyber security policy and research. 

Show Notes:

• Brandon Valeriano bio
• Brandon Valeriano, “The Failure of Offense/Defense Balance in Cyber Security,” The Cyber Defense Review (Summer 2022).
• Brandon Valeriano, “Why Can’t Cyber Security Experts Move beyond the Basics?” The National Interest, August 7, 2022.
• Brandon Valeriano, “War Is Still War: Don’t Listen to the Cult of Cyber,” The National Interest, May 30, 2022.
• Erica D. Lonergan, Shawn D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen, “Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Didn’t Rely on Cyberwarfare. Here’s Why.” The Washington Post, March 7, 2022.
• Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 862, January 15, 2019.

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Award winning journalist Peter Beinart discusses the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan one year later and questions the wisdom of entering the war in the first place. He conjectures about why U.S. foreign policy does not seem to evolve much or reflect popular opinion as much as domestic policy.

Show Notes:

• Peter Beinart bio
• Peter Beinart, “Lessons from Afghanistan a Year Later,” The Beinart Newsletter, August 15, 2022.
• Stephen van Evera, “Why States Believe Foolish Ideas: Non-Self-Evaluation by States and Societies,” in Perspectives in Structural Realism, edited by Andrew K. Hanami (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002): pp. 163-198.

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Defense Priorities fellow Bonnie Kristian discusses the Beijing’s reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the risks of escalation in America’s Ukraine policy, continued U.S. presence in the Middle East, the overuse of national emergency declarations, and unchecked executive war powers.

Show Notes:

•  Bonnie Kristian bio
• Bonnie Kristian, “Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Might Be Good for Her Legacy, but It’s Bad for Everyone Else,” Reason, August 2, 2022.
• Bonnie Kristian, “Don’t Let Russia’s Regime Change Plans Draw the U.S. Into War,” Reason, July 28, 2022.
•  Bonnie Kristian, “Not Everything is a National Emergency,” Reason, July 19, 2022.
•  Bonnie Kristian, “The Biden Administration is Taking Steps to Stay in Iraq Forever,” Defense One, February 22, 2021.
•  Bonnie Kristian, “Trump’s Dangerous Expansion of Executive War Powers,” Politico, April 3, 2017.

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Author Robert Wright discusses the post-Cold War history of US policies, particularly in Europe, that increased the likelihood of today's ongoing war in Ukraine and the psychological factors influencing the climate of discourse in a time of war. 

Show Notes

• Robert Wright bio
• Robert Wright, “Anti-War Think Tank Attacked,” Nonzero Newsletter, July 11, 2022.
• Robert Wright, “Earthling: Was Obama Right About Russia-Ukraine?” Nonzero Newsletter, July 15, 2022.

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