Power Problems

Despite campaign promises to re-enter the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the JCPOA, President Joe Biden has yet to show the political will required to make progress. Quincy Institute co-founder and executive vice president Trita Parsi discusses why the Biden administration has been slow to act and what the consequences will be.

Show Notes

• Trita Parsi bio
• “On Iran, the Biden Presidency Has Been Trump’s Second Term: An Interview with Trita Parsi,” interviewed by Branko Marcetic, Jacobin, June 29, 2022.
• Trita Parsi, “In the Middle East, Biden Walks in Trump’s Footsteps and Will Repeat His Failure,” MSNBC.com, June 18, 2022.

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Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the current state of transatlantic relations, how they shifted during the Trump administration, the need for European defense autonomy, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, and why US foreign policy has a prioritization problem.

Show Notes

• Jeremy Shapiro bio
• Jeremy Shapiro, “Does America Need a Foreign Policy?” in New Voices in Grand Strategy, Michael J. Zak Lecture Series (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019).
• Majda Ruje and Jeremy Shapiro, “The Exaggerated Death of European Sovereignty,” European Council on Foreign Relations, April 27, 2022.
• Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro, “Don’t Mention the War in Ukraine: Germany’s Deteriorating Image in Washington,” European Council on Foreign Relations, February 15, 2022.

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Lyle Goldstein, Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and visiting professor at Brown University, discusses strategies toward Russia and China in this so-called era of great power competition, with a focus on the territorial disputes each rival has with its neighbors. 

• Lyle Goldstein bio
• Lyle Goldstein, “Raising the Minimum: Explaining China’s Nuclear Buildup,” Defense Priorities, April 22, 2022.
• Lyle Goldstein, “Russia’s Progress In Donbas Means Ukraine Likely Won’t Win The War,” 1945, May 10, 2022.  
• Lyle Goldstein, “Joe Biden’s Taiwan Declaration is a Mistake,” Unheard, May 24, 2022.   

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Georgia Tech associate professor Jon R. Lindsay discusses the role and ethics of AI in war, the risks and dangers in developing military and national security applications, and how AI applications will alter the nature of international conflict. 

Notes:

• Jon R. Lindsay bio
• Jon R. Lindsay, Information Technology and Military Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2020).
• Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay, “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War,” International Security 46, no. 3 (2022): pp. 7-50.
• Jon R. Lindsay, “Cyber Conflict vs. Cyber Command: Hidden Dangers in the American Military Solution to a Large-Scale Intelligence Problem,” Intelligence and National Security 36, no. 2 (2021): pp. 260-278.

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Joshua Landis, professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the civil war in Syria, the fragmentation of the country, the history of US interventions in the conflict, how America's strategy there works against itself, and how best to stabilize and potentially resolve what has become a protracted quagmire.

Notes

• Joshua Landis bio
• Steven Simon, Joshua Landis, and Aiman Mansour, “How to Win the Influence Contest in the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 1 (February 3, 2021). 
• Joshua Landis and Steven Simon, “The Pointless Cruelty of Trump’s New Syria Sanctions,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 4 (August 17, 2020).

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Retired CIA officer Paul R. Pillar discusses the tensions between the intelligence community and policymakers, concerns over domestic abuses of the CIA and NSA, the continuing legacy of post-9/11 policy mistakes, the Russian war in Ukraine, the Biden administration's diplomacy with Iran, and how hyper-partisanship undermines national security policy.

Show Notes:

• Paul R. Pillar bio
• Paul R. Pillar, “The Role of the Villain: Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy,” Political Science Quarterly 128, no. 2 (Summer 2013): pp. 211-231. 
• Paul R. Pillar, Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11. And Misguided Reform (New York City: Columbia University Press, 2014).
• Paul R. Pillar, “Guantanamo Bay Remains a Moral Stain on America,” The National Interest, April 18, 2022.

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Tulane University associate professor and Cato adjunct scholar Christopher Fettweis discusses political psychology on the international and domestic levels, explains how misperceptions drive conflict, and argues that "enemy images" can be subdued by greater exposure to adversaries and political opponents. 

1. Christopher Fettweis bio
2. Christopher J. Fettweis, Psychology of a Superpower: Security and Dominance in U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018). 
3. Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery,” Political Science Quarterly 136, no. 4 (September 23, 2021).
4. Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Rome: Lessons in Grand Strategy from Emperor Hadrian,” Survival 60, no. 4 (July 16, 2018): pp. 123-150.

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The image of public harmony between elected officials and an entrenched national security bureaucracy collapsed in the Trump years, according to Tufts University professor Michael Glennon. Glennon discusses the massive transfer of power from the Madisonian institutions of government to a behemoth national security bureaucracy, the problems this poses for policymaking, and how our politics have become a fight over prevailing "myth systems." 

Show Notes

• Michael Glennon bio
• Michael J. Glennon, “Populism, Elites, and National Security,” Humanitas 31, nos. 1 and 2 (2018): pp. 35-45. 
• Michael J. Glennon, National Security and Double Government (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2014).
• Michael J. Glennon, Gene Healy, Jeremy Shapiro, and Justin Logan, “National Security and Double Government,” Cato Event, November 21, 2014.

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The war in Ukraine has prompted calls for armed neutrality as a resolution to the conflict. Audrey Kurth Cronin outlines the history of neutral states and why it is a promising solution in Ukraine.

Show Notes:

• Audrey Kurth Cronin bio
• Audrey Kurth Cronin, “Could Ukraine Become Neutral, Like Switzerland? Five Things to Know,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022. 
• Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “The Great Realignment: Russia’s Invasion Leaves Few Sitting on the Fence,” The Hill, March 2, 2022.

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Atlantic Council senior fellow Emma Ashford discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played out so far, what the broader implications for international security and the global economy will be, and what comes after the conflict for the United States, Europe, Russia, and China.

• Emma Ashford bio
• Emma Ashford, “It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over,”New York Times, February 24, 2022.
• Emma Ashford and Matthew Burrows, “Reality Check #4: Focus on Interests, not on Human Rights with Russia,” Atlantic Council, March 5, 2021.
• Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “Is Belarus Putin’s Next Target?”Foreign Policy, August 14, 2020.

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