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Episode 30 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the US. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny talk about climate change and its impact on Israel’s national security with Galit Cohen, who was the Director General for the Ministry of the Environment. 

Galit emphasizes the Middle East is already considered most vulnerable to climate change, with a severe problem of water scarcity, and is also expected to become 40-50% hotter in the coming decades. The region faces a dual water problem: an already severe shortage of freshwater, along with an anticipated rise of about a meter in the level of the Mediterranean, which will inundate coastal shorelines, including cities and critical infrastructure along them. 

Climate change is also expected to create greater regional instability, mass migrations, even terrorism. The IDF will have to deal with the effects to both personnel and combat equipment. 

Israel is a global leader in climate-tech, especially in extreme heat, desertification, and plant-based meat. 20% of all start-ups in Israel in the last year were in climate-tech. 

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 29 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny engage in an extensive back-and-forth about the impending partial agreement, or maybe just “understanding”, between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue. Chuck believes that Iran’s strategic position has improved greatly, strengthening its bargaining position, and that a partial deal, for all its faults, is the least of the bad options. Danny is more critical and believes that it would just bring us that much closer to an operational Iranian nuclear capability.

They then switch to the topic of US-Saudi relations and Saudi-Israeli normalization. The Saudis have reportedly made four demands of the US in exchange for doing so: an American security guarantee, US acquiescence to a civil Saudi nuclear program, advanced arms sales, including F 35’s, and progress on the Palestinian issue. Chuck and Danny discuss the pros and cons of agreeing to these different demands.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 28 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny conduct an in-depth discussion of the threats of war by Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, especially in light of the recent conflict in Gaza, and what a war with Hezbollah look like. Chuck explains in detail why the changing nature of warfare means that an asymmetric conflict with Hezbollah will be very bloody and likely to achieve only transient results. Danny is somewhat more optimistic. 

They then turn to a discussion of the ramifications of the elections in Turkey, for Turkey itself, the US and NATO and primarily the Middle East and Israel. Danny is optimistic that Erdogan will continue the rapprochement with Israel of the last year or so, Chuck is more skeptical about his behavior. They then discuss the impact of the changing regional alignments, including the Iranian-Saudi and Iranian-UAE rapprochement, and return of Syria to the Arab fold. Both are worried about the downturn in Israeli relations with the Gulf countries, as a result of the policies of the right-wing government in Israel and the regional changes. 

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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This is Episode 27 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

Chuck and Danny go in-deep on the outcome of the recent conflict in Gaza, Operation Shield & Arrow. Both agree that it didn't fundamentally change the situation in Gaza, but Danny is more optimistic about the harm to Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s capabilities and the strengthening of Israel’s deterrence. Chuck takes a more equivocal position on the deterrence issue, believing that the operation may contribute to Israel’s long-term deterrence, but that the short-term impact is minimal and that targeted killings have a questionable record of efficacy. He also believes that the decision to launch the operation, justified though it was for counterterrorism purposes, was also designed to serve the premier’s personal political goals. 

Chuck and Danny then turn to the ramifications of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal five years ago this month. Chuck believes that decision to do so was an historic error. Danny does not dispute the hard data that Chuck presents in support of this contention, but does present some counterarguments.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 26 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Danny advocates a more forceful response to rocket attacks from Gaza, including the cautious response to the recent round in which Hamas fired 104 rockets at Israel. The threat is unacceptable, he argues, and Israel must launch a major operation to strengthen its deterrence and create new rules of the game. Chuck believes that there is a reason that all governments for the last 20 years, left to right, including the current ultra-right wing one, have refrained from a major response, which is that the cost in lives, primarily of IDF soldiers, will be far greater than the price of the current situation. If and when Israel develops an offensive capability that buys more than a few months, at a price it is willing to pay, he too will advocate offensive action, but for the meantime, he supports reliance primarily on defense. 

Chuck and Danny then turn to the regional realignment currently underway, in which the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement was a critical turning point. The UAE and other Sunni states are also trying to reduce tensions with Iran, Iran is continuing to expand its influence in the region, including through the current visit by President Raisi to Syria, and Syria is being reintegrated in the Arab world. None of these developments bode well for Israel.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 25 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this special episode, spanning the week between Yom Hashoah (Holocaust Remembrance Day) and Memorial Day for Fallen Soldiers, followed immediately by Israel’s 75th anniversary, Chuck and Danny discuss what these dramatically diverse dates mean for them. 

Both agree fully on the importance of Holocaust remembrance and Danny describes a project underway at Yad Vashem that has already documented the names of five out of the 6 million.

When it comes to Memorial and Independence days, their views diverge. Chuck talks about how he has long awaited the 75th anniversary as an opportunity to celebrate Israel’s remarkable achievements, but that for the first time ever, following the domestic crisis in recent months over the “judicial reforms”, he will not be able to celebrate. Instead, it will be a day of solemn reflection for him. 

For example, he would not participate in a memorial ceremony addressed by ministers such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, or the premier who has appointed them.

Danny believes that Memorial Day and the 75th anniversary should be an opportunity to begin the healing process, that we are all one people and must put our differences aside. While he shares many of Chuck’s concerns regarding the need to address critical issues such as relations between synagogue and state, the secular and ultra-Orthodox communities, Ashkenazim and Sepharadim and Jews and Arabs, as well as the Palestinian issue, he believes that it is now time for compromise and goodwill. 

Chuck believes this is an opportunity that should not be wasted on platitudes and is a time for finally making real decisions on these critical issues.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 24 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny interview Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg, one of Israel’s most prominent economists and a prominent global expert in the field of innovation and economic growth. Trajtenberg has vast experience in national security areas, as well, and is now as Executive Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, INSS, in Tel Aviv.

Trajtenberg is deeply concerned by the “legal reforms” proposed by the government. In a fascinating analysis of the situation, he believes it essential that a true process of national dialogue now begin, which will require that all sides make painful concessions, e.g. on the issue of ultra-Orthodox military service. He believes that the only way to do this is as part of a national unity government, which would be formed following new elections in the near future.

​Danny agrees with Trajtenberg’s recommendations, believes that one cannot force military service on the Haredim and, in any event, that’s all sides are now fatigued by recent events. Chuck believes that these events are the Israeli equivalent of the French Bastille, the American Civil War, or the revolutions in Russia and China, one of those defining moments after which things never are – and should not be – the same. Hestresses that one should never waste a good crisis andthat well-meaning proposals for national dialogue miss this historic opportunity to finally address truly critical issues, such as the future of the West Bank, synagogue-state relations, the electoral system and more. 

Danny believes that the national discussion should be limited to the domestic issues, primarily the legal dimensions, and that foreign policy, such as the future of the West Bank, should be kept separate. Danny does believe, however, that Netanyahu has fulfilled his historic role and must give way for a new generation of Likud leaders.

Following the discussion of the ongoing domestic crisis in Israel, Chuck and Danny turn to their deep concern over the crisis in relations with the US. Both agree that the domestic crisis in Israel is causing grave damage to the bilateral relationship. Chuck notes a recent poll showing, for the first time, that a majority of Democrats now support the Palestinians, not Israel, a development that Danny deplores. Both stress the vital importance of the US for Israel’s national security.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 23 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny interview Avi Bell, a professor of law at Bar Ilan University and University of San Diego. Prof. Bell is also a senior fellow at the Kohelet Policy Forum, which is the think tank behind the current push for far-reaching legal change in Israel. He is an eloquent and well-informed proponent of the reforms and although he did not convince either Chuck or Danny, he certainly presented his case effectively.

Following the interview, Chuck and Danny continue their ongoing analysis of the unprecedented legal and political crisis Israel is undergoing. Chuck notes the statements by the heads of virtually all state institutions, including the former heads of the Shin Bet, Mossad, atomic energy committee, chiefs of staff, almost all former Supreme Court justices, attorneys general, and more, who have come out strongly against the proposed changes. 

Danny is essentially in full agreement and is particularly worried about the impact on relations with the United States. He notes that the Prime Minister has yet to receive an invitation to visit the White House, and the unprecedented nature of Pres. Biden’s open criticism of the reforms. Both Chuck and Danny deplore the fact that Israel is totally preoccupied with its domestic convulsions at the expense of dealing with the truly important issues, such as Iran’s growing uranium program. 

They conclude the podcast with a discussion of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, brokered by China, and its ramifications for the region and Israel. One big question stemming from this rapprochement is whether we are seeing the beginning of the Chinese era in the Middle East, at the expense of the American leadership role in the region.

Join Chuck and Danny as they agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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In this episode, Chuck and Danny interview Major General Yair Golan, former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff, Former Deputy Minister of the Economy and Member of Knesset. 

In a fascinating and wide-ranging interview, they cover a lot of ground, including how Israel’s adversaries perceive its domestic turmoil and its effects this has on their various calculations, the dangers of a major eruption of violence on the West Bank, how Israel should be handling the Iranian nuclear issue and lessons that the IDF can learn from the war in Ukraine.

Following the interview, Chuck and Danny continue their ongoing analysis of Israel’s unprecedented legal-political crisis. Chuck argues that the new government has succeeded in causing severe harm to Israel in almost every area, in just two months in office. Mass demonstrations are taking place on a regular basis, there are signs of the IDF coming apart, starting with the reserves, , the economy is nose diving, violence – both by Palestinians and Israeli settlers – is on the rise in the West Bank, the relationship with the US is being undermined, Israel’s international standing has been hit and its adversaries heartened. Danny agrees with many of Chuck’s assessments, but continues to believe that a compromise will be worked out between the coalition and government that will avert a true moment of crisis. Both agree that the IDF should be left out of the political crisis.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces. 

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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Episode 21 of the Israel Defense and Diplomacy Forum (IDDF) – with Prof. Chuck Freilich, former Israeli Deputy National Security Advisor, and Danny Ayalon, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Ambassador to Washington. 

In this episode, Chuck and Danny interview Elyakim Rubinstein, Israel's former deputy chief justice and former Attorney General, to discuss the judicial-political crisis. Rubinstein fears that the proposed “judicial reforms” will turn Israel into a “democratic dictatorship” and states, surprisingly, for a former justice, that he even participates in the public protests. Danny has shifted his position, from concern, to sharing in Chuck’s strong opposition to the reforms.

Chuck argues that Israel’s right-wing often raises important concerns, but that its constant overreach ends up destroying almost everything it touches. The judicial reforms are one example, but the new government’s West Bank policies have already led to rising violence and to heightened friction with the US, indeed, that Israel is risking its entire strategic relationship with the US. Even worse, the de facto annexation of the West Bank is turning Israel into a binational state, possibly irreversibly.

Danny agrees that Israel must separate from the Palestinians, but emphasizes the need to keep negotiating cards for the future, including through ongoing settlement by Israel’s true pioneers and Zionists. He rejects the argument that Israel is undermining its democratic character, or creating an irreversible situation, and believes that a peace settlement may only be possible in the next generation or thereafter. He believes that Israel should wait until there is a deal on the table and true reconciliation is possible. Chuck believes that Danny’s approach means it will be too late.

On Iran, Danny rejects Chuck’s charge that right-wing overreach - the withdrawal from the JCPOA - has left Israel with no good options and emphasizes that it is high time for the international community to take effective action. He believes that credible US and Israeli military options will deter Iran from crossing the final threshold. Chuck fully agrees that Israel must develop a military option to strike in Iran, but stresses that even the US can no longer achieve more than a brief delay through military action and that effective international action is again right-wing dreaming, not realistic policy.

Join us as Chuck and Danny agree and disagree, in detail and in-depth, always respectfully, on the critical issues Israel faces. 

The MirYam Institute. Israel's Future in Israel's Hands.

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