We left 2024 expecting surprises from political change and geopolitical shifts. But according to Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield, the actual surprise in store during the year ahead may be how little things change.

For example, some anticipate a widespread sell off of distressed commercial real estate assets in 2025. But Rockey believes the pace will be much slower than many expect. Rather than a cliff event, she predicts a slow burn that continues well into 2026 and perhaps even into 2027.

“I don’t think we will have a shortage of surprises out of DC,” says Rockey, who lives in the area. “But I think there are forces in motion that are going to play out next year, regardless of what’s happening in the policy environment.”

“…specifically around the capital markets, which are a defining feature of this cycle for commercial real estate. We’ve clearly gone through some repricing, we’ve seen capital sources start to shift around in response to that, and as we move forward this year those shifts in capital sources will continue to play out—and I think those changes will be much more prolonged than just 2025.”

Other themes:

What shifts does Rockey expect in the capital markets?

Will distressed deals tick up in the year ahead—and by how much?

Where the best opportunities are hiding in 2025?

Watch the video or listen to the audio episode for answers.